From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with Mark Jeftovic on the meltdown in cryptocurrencies and what happens next.
February 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Market behavior is shifting alongside technology. AI shortens business cycles and accelerates repricing. Leverage magnifies reactions. Empire of Debt warned that systems built on smooth assumptions fail loudly once those assumptions collide with reality. Software reached that collision point first.
February 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
You can bet on nearly anything on Polymarket. One bet is that Elon Musk, current net worth $775 billion, will add the other $225 billion and become the world’s first trillionaire.
Betting market odds now overwhelmingly see it happening this year, and this could be a sign of a top.
February 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
January 30, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Corporate insiders began ringing the cash register just as the S&P 500 touched 7,000. Given that the market is up over 40% from last April’s “Liberation Day” lows, a modicum of profit-taking is wise.
January 30, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Kevin Warsh, former Fed governor and one-time Morgan Stanley hand, is officially President Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
The choice is meant to be brazen, if not entirely unexpected. Despite having been nominated in his first go in the Oval Office, Trump has been gunning for Jerome Powell since Day One of his second term.
Now, Warsh, whose libertarian-leaning critique of the Fed has hovered like a drone over Jackson Hole for years, will succeed Powell should the Senate confirm him before May 15, 2026.
January 29, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
In one refrain from our book Empire of Debt, we warned that late-stage credit systems always suffer the same fate: the debasement of money disguised as growth. Ray Dalio said the quiet part out loud in an interview yesterday:
“If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it’s going up.”
Which is precisely why the markets get jittery at the top. And why politics are as wacky and polarized as they have been.
In New York, Mayor Zohran Mamdani is demanding higher taxes on the rich to plug budget holes left by former Mayor Adams. He wants billions from Albany. Governor Hochul has yet to weigh in.
In California, Sergey Brin, Eric Schmidt, and other Silicon Valley billionaires are backing a new pro-business PAC to fight a proposed 5% wealth tax on the state’s 200 richest residents. Larry Page has already moved to Florida. The line to Nevada is forming.
Ray Dalio, again, with the map:
“When governments run large deficits and the debt is no longer bought willingly, they have two choices: raise taxes and cut spending, or print money. Those that can print, do. Those that can’t, fall apart.”
Populist politics surge. Moderates vanish. Scapegoating begins. The wealth gap widens until it becomes an impassable chasm.
January 29, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday, adding to its stack of all-time highs this year and continuing the trend set in 2025.
But… those highs are measured in dollars. When priced in gold, which topped $5,500 — also a historic number— this morning, stocks are actually at a 12-year low.
January 28, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Trump is trying to force two converging economic events that haven’t aligned like this in over 40 years.
The first is the cost of borrowing. After the fastest rate-hiking cycle in decades, rates are rolling over. Trump wants them at 1%. Jerome Powell’s term ends at the Fed on May 15. The path is being cleared for a true believer in lower interest rates to take his spot.
The second is the cost of living. Oil has fallen from $95 to just over $60 in a year. Gas is averaging $2.88 nationally. And because oil feeds into everything — shipping, food, plastics — falling prices cascade across the economy. The capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro is not a coincidence. Venezuela is one of the leading exporters in the OPEC block of oil producers.
January 28, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
A push for lower interest rates, jawboning by Trump administration officials, and concerns over U.S. debt levels are giving the dollar a good thrashing.
Dollar-denominated assets, from global commodities to U.S. stocks — even competing fiat currencies — will see prices rise versus the U.S. variety until this trend shifts.
January 27, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Over the past year, gold has climbed more than 80%.
Why?
Because inflation isn’t dead. Because debt isn’t sustainable. Because equities look priced to perfection. Because bonds yield less than honest work. And because every institution you thought was safe is now a political football.
Is it peak gold? Maybe. But previous gold rallies have lasted for years. The storm hasn’t passed — it’s only beginning to darken. Many of the risks keeping investors up at night are unlikely to go away soon.
January 26, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Gold and silver are making new highs. Gold knocked on the door of $5,100 in overnight trading in Shanghai this morning. Silver, not to be outdone, is driving resource traders wild, cracking $116 up 15% today alone.
A year ago, one bitcoin bought roughly 40 ounces of gold. Today it buys 18.
Bitcoin was marketed as digital gold. Instead, Wall Street wrapped it in ETFs, margin accounts, and structured products.
January 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
We’ve entered a new territory on Wall Street: for the first time in recorded history, zero strategists are predicting a down year.
Not “most are bullish.”
Not “nearly all expect gains.”
Zero bearish calls for 2026.
Unanimity so complete it resembles a vote in a collapsing authoritarian state.
January 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The Bank of Japan’s holdings of its own government’s bonds are now near a 10-year low.
The yen carry trade has been a constant in global finance for 3 decades. Currently, the unwind is throwing the Japanese government into a crisis of historic proportions.
Americans take note. Not only are Japanese bonds undermining the AI rally on Wall Street. The crisis is a cautionary tale for the U.S. efforts to finance its own historic debt load.
