From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with John Robb, Grey Swan Contributor, on the war with Iran and geopolitical effects in the age of networked warfare.
March 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
President Trump ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to provide political-risk insurance and financial guarantees for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
He also said the U.S. Navy could begin escorting tankers “if necessary” and “as soon as possible.”
The plan is meant to restart maritime traffic after Iran’s attacks and threats helped shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows.
March 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Back in October 2025, following the collapse of firms like First Brands and Tricolor, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of hidden risks in the $3 trillion private credit market. “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” Dimon said, suggesting that further defaults and “garbage lending” issues will likely emerge.
March 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 4, 2026 • John Robb
Given our country’s history, a new middle based on proprietary autonomous AIs would generate a level of prosperity, dynamism, and societal success an order of magnitude greater than any AI-enabled socioeconomic system without it. Decentralized economic superempowerment would also serve as a bulwark against a slide into the long night of AI-enabled tyranny. So, what do we need to do to make it inevitable rather than a possibility?
March 3, 2026 • John Robb
All of the prohibitions against decapitations or other catastrophic, disruptive attacks against opposition networks have evaporated. Everyone is now free to do it, and in most cases, there won’t be a response. Not only that, it’s not hard to do, so nearly everyone can (which is the reason this prohibition was put in place).
March 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Markets go through many Grey Swan cycles – moves that are rare, but forecastable.
Events unfolding in the Middle East fit a pattern… an 11-year cycle tied to sunspot activity.
February 27, 2026 • Andrew Packer
There’s just something about collectibles. Perhaps it’s because you’re holding something tangible in your hand, not just a share of a company. I certainly get a lot of joy looking through my coin collection or researching prices on pieces I want to acquire someday.
Collectibles had a moment in the sun in 2021 and 2022, as investors were looking for an inflation hedge. The space has cooled off a bit, making now an optimal time to consider investing in collectibles.
While today’s focus – and my personal interest – is in rare coins – you may be more interested in stamps, art, antiques, even vintage cars. In the collectible space, there’s something for everyone. That’s part of the joy.
More importantly, with collectibles out of favor, it may be a good asset to rotate some of your wealth into.
February 27, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
If the S&P 500 closes over 6,910 today, the index will be up for February and continue its strong performance since last April.
But, looking at the monthly relative strength index (RSI), the market is flashing an overbought signal.
February 26, 2026 • Andrew Packer
Nvidia’s selloff isn’t unexpected. It reports late in earnings season. Most of its customers have already reported how many chips they’ve bought or plan to buy.
Most of those big-tech names sold off after their earnings in recent weeks, too. But we’re seeing signs of a slowdown, of sorts.
Companies like Microsoft and Apple are now increasing their AI spend so much that they’re slowing their spending on other priorities.
February 26, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
For AI-linked companies — Nvidia foremost among them — investor expectations continue to rise along with their valuations. At this point, even billions in profit are not enough.
Like the fiber optic spending plans that dominated the 1990s at the height of the dotcom bubble, AI spending is squeezing the cash flows for the S&P 500’s biggest companies.
February 25, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
China’s gold reserves have more than tripled since 2022, while the U.S. Treasury holdings have declined. The metal is rising as central banks’ sovereign bond exposure falls globally.
Capital continues to be repositioned between a Western debt-based system and an Eastern resource-based accumulation.
February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.
The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.
February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.
In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.
Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.
The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.
Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.
