From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with Frank Holmes on crypto, commodities, and today’s investment opportunities.
February 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Funds net sold U.S. equities for a fourth straight week, at the fastest clip since the opening chapter of the Trump trade war on April 2, 2025.
Despite that positioning, the indexes pushed higher on Monday.
Dip buyers stepped in after last week’s slide and nudged indexes back toward their highs.
Chipmakers gained ground, and a software ETF tacked on close to 7% across two sessions, a quick counterpoint to the sector’s recent purge. Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute described the move as the market’s reflex after steep selloffs—fast hands cover, slower money watches.
February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Every ten minutes, the bitcoin network completes another block of transaction data. Another bitcoin miner seeks a reward.
The reward is cut in half every four years, thanks to the “halving protocol” which established the coin’s scarcity algorithm. Next month, total bitcoin supply will hit 20 million, leaving just 1 million left to be mined.
February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
As we’ve tracked since April 2, 2025, the early phase of the reset burned hot. Institutions weakened. Assumptions cracked.
This week supplied fresh evidence. Software buckled under pressure from artificial intelligence. Metals convulsed under leverage.
What follows looks colder and more deliberate. The metaphor shifts from bonfire to board game. The game isn’t chess. It’s Risk. Territory matters. Chokepoints matter. Supply lines matter.
Winning depends less on elegance and more on control.
February 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Since peaking in early October, the market cap of all cryptocurrencies has slid from a $4.3 trillion peak to about $2.3 trillion today.
February 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Market behavior is shifting alongside technology. AI shortens business cycles and accelerates repricing. Leverage magnifies reactions. Empire of Debt warned that systems built on smooth assumptions fail loudly once those assumptions collide with reality. Software reached that collision point first.
February 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
You can bet on nearly anything on Polymarket. One bet is that Elon Musk, current net worth $775 billion, will add the other $225 billion and become the world’s first trillionaire.
Betting market odds now overwhelmingly see it happening this year, and this could be a sign of a top.
February 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
In Singapore, Bloomberg reported that retail buyers crowded United Overseas Bank, the city’s only bank selling physical gold, until customers without pre-orders were turned away.
In Sydney, lines stretched into the street outside ABC Bullion after Friday’s selloff. Thai investors held existing positions instead of selling into weakness. In China’s Shuibei district, ahead of the Lunar New Year, buyers stepped in, and local prices held premiums over exchange benchmarks.
“It’s still a buying market,” said Globlex Securities CEO Thanapisal Koohapremkit. Quiet accumulation doesn’t announce itself. It just keeps happening.
February 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
AI tools are incredibly useful and AI stocks remain richly valued. Yes.
New tech will also create new, productive and higher paying jobs. Ones we haven’t even dreamed up yet.
In the meantime, the jobs market is being measured by the tools needed to calculate the economy without knowing what the new jobs will be.
February 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
For months, speculation swirled like chimney smoke in a snowstorm. Would Trump tap a dove? A loyalist? A Wall Street man in a red hat? Warsh checks none of those boxes — and all of them.
He’s a former Fed governor, a Goldman alum, and a card-carrying skeptic of central bank omnipotence.
He’s said, “The Fed is not independent from government. It is independent within government,” which sounds like something out of a fortune cookie written by Hayek.
He doesn’t want the Fed playing God, and he’s not keen on printing money to mop up Congress’s mess. He believes in limits. In credibility. In consequences.
February 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Corporate insiders began ringing the cash register just as the S&P 500 touched 7,000. Given that the market is up over 40% from last April’s “Liberation Day” lows, a modicum of profit-taking is wise.
January 30, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Kevin Warsh, former Fed governor and one-time Morgan Stanley hand, is officially President Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
The choice is meant to be brazen, if not entirely unexpected. Despite having been nominated in his first go in the Oval Office, Trump has been gunning for Jerome Powell since Day One of his second term.
Now, Warsh, whose libertarian-leaning critique of the Fed has hovered like a drone over Jackson Hole for years, will succeed Powell should the Senate confirm him before May 15, 2026.
January 30, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The analysis we’ve published of the main drivers for gold applies to silver and bitcoin, too. The latter two, however, remain more speculative and gap down and spike up more dramatically.
If you’re leveraged to silver, whether through mining companies, ETFs, or the like, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table. And keep your eyes peeled for future moves upward.
