From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with Frank Holmes on crypto, commodities, and today’s investment opportunities.
February 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Gallup reports that 62.1% of Americans describe themselves as thriving in 2025, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024. Yet, only 59.2% expect a high quality of life in five years, the lowest reading on record. We wonder how many of the 40.8% of the naysayers were trading on Robinhood…
Our goal at Grey Swan is to make sure we’re in the cohort of thrivers now, five years from now… and beyond.
To that end, folks who build durable positions tend to focus on balance sheets, cost structures, and who controls the pipes — whether those pipes carry rockets, data, oil, or dollars.
February 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
In the past eight-day trading period, over 20% of S&P 500 stocks have had at least one intraday decline of at least 7%.
Typically, that kind of volatility occurs in the middle of a market correction or crash – not this close to all-time highs.
February 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 11, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Moody’s Mark Zandi urged restraint. “I wouldn’t exhale,” he wrote. The data coming out of the Bureau of (be)Labor(ed) Statistics (BLS) is still undergoing an overhaul from years of wonky miscalculations.
Downward revisions erased much of last year’s gains. Since April, aggregate job growth has barely moved.
Over the past twelve months, private education and health services added roughly 780,000 jobs. Remove those gains, and the broader economy shed about 350,000 positions.
February 11, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
In 2025, the top 10% of households owned 93% of U.S. stocks, driving wealth concentration to 60-year highs. Those high-income households accounted for nearly 60% of total personal spending by the third quarter of 2025.
Wage disparity and an asset wealth gap define fractious politics in this midterm year. And help explain why both parties appear to be talking only to themselves.
February 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Funds net sold U.S. equities for a fourth straight week, at the fastest clip since the opening chapter of the Trump trade war on April 2, 2025.
Despite that positioning, the indexes pushed higher on Monday.
Dip buyers stepped in after last week’s slide and nudged indexes back toward their highs.
Chipmakers gained ground, and a software ETF tacked on close to 7% across two sessions, a quick counterpoint to the sector’s recent purge. Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute described the move as the market’s reflex after steep selloffs—fast hands cover, slower money watches.
February 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Every ten minutes, the bitcoin network completes another block of transaction data. Another bitcoin miner seeks a reward.
The reward is cut in half every four years, thanks to the “halving protocol” which established the coin’s scarcity algorithm. Next month, total bitcoin supply will hit 20 million, leaving just 1 million left to be mined.
February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The Nasdaq logged its fourth straight down week, pulled lower by the “SaaSpocalypse” in software.
Goldman Sachs’ Software Basket fell 16% for the week. Hedge fund exposure to software shrank sharply, according to Prime Book data.
Lou Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Baskets, told clients that buyers remained scarce even as the group entered oversold territory.
In the late 1990s, telecom infrastructure outpaced demand, pricing compressed, and equity valuations adjusted long before usage caught up.
Today’s AI buildout carries healthier balance sheets and real utility, yet capital intensity remains high, and patience wears thin when returns depend on perfect adoption curves.
February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The week’s trading revealed that a rotation out of high-flying tech into defensive names is well underway. The Dow, which includes broader, non-tech-related stocks, is starting the week above 50,000 for the first time in its history.
February 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The most important moment in finance this week didn’t happen in a committee room or on cable television. It took place over coffee last week in Davos.
Brian Armstrong, the founder and CEO of Coinbase, was mid-conversation with former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair when Jamie Dimon stepped in, pointed a finger, and said, “You are full of s—.”
Dimon wasn’t debating crypto theory. He was defending deposits.
Armstrong had spent the week accusing large banks of leaning on lawmakers to kneecap digital-asset legislation that threatens their core franchise. Dimon, whose firm sits atop the U.S. deposit pile, heard enough. According to people familiar with the exchange, he told Armstrong to stop lying on television.
February 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Bitcoin is now selling off at a pace last seen at bear-market bottoms in 2018 and 2022.
Our trading channel was buzzing yesterday. Traders are actively seeking the bottom and trying to plot a way back in!
Indeed, bitcoin is rebounding and back up to $68,000 in today’s trading. Nail-biting stuff.
February 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
As we’ve tracked since April 2, 2025, the early phase of the reset burned hot. Institutions weakened. Assumptions cracked.
This week supplied fresh evidence. Software buckled under pressure from artificial intelligence. Metals convulsed under leverage.
What follows looks colder and more deliberate. The metaphor shifts from bonfire to board game. The game isn’t chess. It’s Risk. Territory matters. Chokepoints matter. Supply lines matter.
Winning depends less on elegance and more on control.
February 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Since peaking in early October, the market cap of all cryptocurrencies has slid from a $4.3 trillion peak to about $2.3 trillion today.
