From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with John Robb, Grey Swan Contributor, on the war with Iran and geopolitical effects in the age of networked warfare.
March 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The live question is whether Beijing can keep funding military modernization, AI self-reliance and geopolitical reach while growth cools, property sours and energy costs rise.
The companion question is whether Trump can use Iran as leverage against Beijing without turning a strategic flank into a financial sinkhole. Those are the pressure points on the board this morning.
The U.S. dollar and Treasurys lie in the balance. Gold is, as has been historically true for millennia, the apolitical asset of choice.
March 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 27, 2026 • Andrew Packer
March 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Retail investors learned they could successfully buy the Liberation Day drop last April. But that was a 20% broad-based sell-off, a single event.
Today is a different year, a different setup. Retail “buy the dippers” are going to struggle in a market near all-time highs that is also rotating out of the AI trade.
Hold some cash to find bargains during a broader, sustained correction.
March 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 27, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 3, 2026 • John Robb
All of the prohibitions against decapitations or other catastrophic, disruptive attacks against opposition networks have evaporated. Everyone is now free to do it, and in most cases, there won’t be a response. Not only that, it’s not hard to do, so nearly everyone can (which is the reason this prohibition was put in place).
February 26, 2026 • Andrew Packer
Nvidia’s selloff isn’t unexpected. It reports late in earnings season. Most of its customers have already reported how many chips they’ve bought or plan to buy.
Most of those big-tech names sold off after their earnings in recent weeks, too. But we’re seeing signs of a slowdown, of sorts.
Companies like Microsoft and Apple are now increasing their AI spend so much that they’re slowing their spending on other priorities.
February 26, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
For AI-linked companies — Nvidia foremost among them — investor expectations continue to rise along with their valuations. At this point, even billions in profit are not enough.
Like the fiber optic spending plans that dominated the 1990s at the height of the dotcom bubble, AI spending is squeezing the cash flows for the S&P 500’s biggest companies.
February 25, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
China’s gold reserves have more than tripled since 2022, while the U.S. Treasury holdings have declined. The metal is rising as central banks’ sovereign bond exposure falls globally.
Capital continues to be repositioned between a Western debt-based system and an Eastern resource-based accumulation.
February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.
The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.
February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.
In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.
Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.
The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.
Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.
February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.
February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.
After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”
For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!
February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The Supreme Court voted 6–3 to block President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose his “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that the Constitution grants tariff authority to Congress alone. Justices Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissented.
The case centered on Trump’s 10% global tariff and the higher reciprocal tariffs layered on select trading partners. Oral arguments were heard in November. The Court concluded that IEEPA did not authorize such broad tariff power.
A concurrent research paper from the New York Fed concluded that American consumers bear most of the tariff cost.
February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Early February brought a sharp sell-off in SaaS and AI infrastructure names. Some high-growth software stocks fell as much as 80% from prior peaks.
Retail investors, duly trained by Wall Street’s sell-side, stepped in “buy the dip” in “software as a service” (SaaS).
