From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with John Robb, Grey Swan Contributor, on the war with Iran and geopolitical effects in the age of networked warfare.
March 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
From where things stand today, oil is off the peak, employment is making traders nervous, inflation is ticking back up and boardrooms are adjusting quickly behind the scenes…
March 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
While oil and AI take the brunt of the blame for a poor February jobs report, the real biggest driver for both rising prices and slowing employment – and a compression in corporate profits – is flying under the radar…
March 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 5, 2026 • John Robb
Ever since the re-election of Trump, the blue tribe has been searching for another event it could use to repeat its success with BLM. They thought they had finally found it with ICE (its enforcement actions produce numerous excesses it could exploit).
March 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Back in October 2025, following the collapse of firms like First Brands and Tricolor, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of hidden risks in the $3 trillion private credit market. “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” Dimon said, suggesting that further defaults and “garbage lending” issues will likely emerge.
March 4, 2026 • John Robb
Given our country’s history, a new middle based on proprietary autonomous AIs would generate a level of prosperity, dynamism, and societal success an order of magnitude greater than any AI-enabled socioeconomic system without it. Decentralized economic superempowerment would also serve as a bulwark against a slide into the long night of AI-enabled tyranny. So, what do we need to do to make it inevitable rather than a possibility?
March 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
President Trump ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to provide political-risk insurance and financial guarantees for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
He also said the U.S. Navy could begin escorting tankers “if necessary” and “as soon as possible.”
The plan is meant to restart maritime traffic after Iran’s attacks and threats helped shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows.
March 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Nearly 90% of Iran’s exports and roughly half of Venezuela’s oil had been making its way to Chinese buyers, much of it feeding independent refineries and price-sensitive manufacturing supply chains.
March 3, 2026 • John Robb
All of the prohibitions against decapitations or other catastrophic, disruptive attacks against opposition networks have evaporated. Everyone is now free to do it, and in most cases, there won’t be a response. Not only that, it’s not hard to do, so nearly everyone can (which is the reason this prohibition was put in place).
March 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The live question is whether Beijing can keep funding military modernization, AI self-reliance and geopolitical reach while growth cools, property sours and energy costs rise.
The companion question is whether Trump can use Iran as leverage against Beijing without turning a strategic flank into a financial sinkhole. Those are the pressure points on the board this morning.
The U.S. dollar and Treasurys lie in the balance. Gold is, as has been historically true for millennia, the apolitical asset of choice.
March 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Retail investors learned they could successfully buy the Liberation Day drop last April. But that was a 20% broad-based sell-off, a single event.
Today is a different year, a different setup. Retail “buy the dippers” are going to struggle in a market near all-time highs that is also rotating out of the AI trade.
Hold some cash to find bargains during a broader, sustained correction.
March 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The global economy still runs through pipes, ports and chokepoints.
The Gulf remains the hinge between old energy and new industry.
Data centers need power. AI needs a stable infrastructure. The dollar system still prefers secure shipping lanes and orderly settlement.
Washington wants the Gulf calm enough to keep that architecture standing while the next layer of digital finance gets argued over in committee rooms and bank lobbies. Riyadh wants security, leverage and a larger chair at the table when the AI buildout starts choosing permanent winners.
March 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Markets go through many Grey Swan cycles – moves that are rare, but forecastable.
Events unfolding in the Middle East fit a pattern… an 11-year cycle tied to sunspot activity.
