From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with Frank Holmes on crypto, commodities, and today’s investment opportunities.
February 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Private education and health services accounted for the bulk of job creation over the past year.
Over the last twelve months, that category added roughly 780,000 positions. Excluding those gains, the economy shed approximately 350,000 jobs.
Manufacturing, the purported object of Trump’s tariff strategy, declined by about 100,000 in 2025. Transportation and warehousing fell by more than 100,000. Professional and business services contracted. Information and financial activities declined.
Federal employment dropped again in January, down 42,000. The civilian federal workforce now sits roughly 11% below its October 2024 peak.
February 11, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Most investors are familiar with the price-to-earnings, or PE, ratio. But what if you invert that, and divide earnings by price? You get what’s called the “earnings yield.”
Earnings yield on the S&P 500 is near a 100-year low.
February 11, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The Nasdaq logged its fourth straight down week, pulled lower by the “SaaSpocalypse” in software.
Goldman Sachs’ Software Basket fell 16% for the week. Hedge fund exposure to software shrank sharply, according to Prime Book data.
Lou Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Baskets, told clients that buyers remained scarce even as the group entered oversold territory.
In the late 1990s, telecom infrastructure outpaced demand, pricing compressed, and equity valuations adjusted long before usage caught up.
Today’s AI buildout carries healthier balance sheets and real utility, yet capital intensity remains high, and patience wears thin when returns depend on perfect adoption curves.
February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The week’s trading revealed that a rotation out of high-flying tech into defensive names is well underway. The Dow, which includes broader, non-tech-related stocks, is starting the week above 50,000 for the first time in its history.
February 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The most important moment in finance this week didn’t happen in a committee room or on cable television. It took place over coffee last week in Davos.
Brian Armstrong, the founder and CEO of Coinbase, was mid-conversation with former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair when Jamie Dimon stepped in, pointed a finger, and said, “You are full of s—.”
Dimon wasn’t debating crypto theory. He was defending deposits.
Armstrong had spent the week accusing large banks of leaning on lawmakers to kneecap digital-asset legislation that threatens their core franchise. Dimon, whose firm sits atop the U.S. deposit pile, heard enough. According to people familiar with the exchange, he told Armstrong to stop lying on television.
February 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Bitcoin is now selling off at a pace last seen at bear-market bottoms in 2018 and 2022.
Our trading channel was buzzing yesterday. Traders are actively seeking the bottom and trying to plot a way back in!
Indeed, bitcoin is rebounding and back up to $68,000 in today’s trading. Nail-biting stuff.
February 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
As we’ve tracked since April 2, 2025, the early phase of the reset burned hot. Institutions weakened. Assumptions cracked.
This week supplied fresh evidence. Software buckled under pressure from artificial intelligence. Metals convulsed under leverage.
What follows looks colder and more deliberate. The metaphor shifts from bonfire to board game. The game isn’t chess. It’s Risk. Territory matters. Chokepoints matter. Supply lines matter.
Winning depends less on elegance and more on control.
February 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Since peaking in early October, the market cap of all cryptocurrencies has slid from a $4.3 trillion peak to about $2.3 trillion today.
February 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Market behavior is shifting alongside technology. AI shortens business cycles and accelerates repricing. Leverage magnifies reactions. Empire of Debt warned that systems built on smooth assumptions fail loudly once those assumptions collide with reality. Software reached that collision point first.
February 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
You can bet on nearly anything on Polymarket. One bet is that Elon Musk, current net worth $775 billion, will add the other $225 billion and become the world’s first trillionaire.
Betting market odds now overwhelmingly see it happening this year, and this could be a sign of a top.
February 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
In Singapore, Bloomberg reported that retail buyers crowded United Overseas Bank, the city’s only bank selling physical gold, until customers without pre-orders were turned away.
In Sydney, lines stretched into the street outside ABC Bullion after Friday’s selloff. Thai investors held existing positions instead of selling into weakness. In China’s Shuibei district, ahead of the Lunar New Year, buyers stepped in, and local prices held premiums over exchange benchmarks.
“It’s still a buying market,” said Globlex Securities CEO Thanapisal Koohapremkit. Quiet accumulation doesn’t announce itself. It just keeps happening.
February 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
AI tools are incredibly useful and AI stocks remain richly valued. Yes.
New tech will also create new, productive and higher paying jobs. Ones we haven’t even dreamed up yet.
In the meantime, the jobs market is being measured by the tools needed to calculate the economy without knowing what the new jobs will be.
