From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with John Robb, Grey Swan Contributor, on the war with Iran and geopolitical effects in the age of networked warfare.
March 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Through the first 41 trading days of 2026, the S&P 500 traded within a 2.7% range — the narrowest start to any year since 1928. The first 41 days of 2008 spanned roughly 35%. In 2020, the range ran near 15%. Even the placid 1950s never opened this tight…
March 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Oil prices opened significantly higher in overnight trading, following a weekend of news about shutdowns in Saudi Arabia and the bombing of Iranian oil infrastructure.
March 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 5, 2026 • John Robb
Ever since the re-election of Trump, the blue tribe has been searching for another event it could use to repeat its success with BLM. They thought they had finally found it with ICE (its enforcement actions produce numerous excesses it could exploit).
March 4, 2026 • John Robb
Given our country’s history, a new middle based on proprietary autonomous AIs would generate a level of prosperity, dynamism, and societal success an order of magnitude greater than any AI-enabled socioeconomic system without it. Decentralized economic superempowerment would also serve as a bulwark against a slide into the long night of AI-enabled tyranny. So, what do we need to do to make it inevitable rather than a possibility?
March 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Nearly 90% of Iran’s exports and roughly half of Venezuela’s oil had been making its way to Chinese buyers, much of it feeding independent refineries and price-sensitive manufacturing supply chains.
March 3, 2026 • John Robb
All of the prohibitions against decapitations or other catastrophic, disruptive attacks against opposition networks have evaporated. Everyone is now free to do it, and in most cases, there won’t be a response. Not only that, it’s not hard to do, so nearly everyone can (which is the reason this prohibition was put in place).
March 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The live question is whether Beijing can keep funding military modernization, AI self-reliance and geopolitical reach while growth cools, property sours and energy costs rise.
The companion question is whether Trump can use Iran as leverage against Beijing without turning a strategic flank into a financial sinkhole. Those are the pressure points on the board this morning.
The U.S. dollar and Treasurys lie in the balance. Gold is, as has been historically true for millennia, the apolitical asset of choice.
March 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Retail investors learned they could successfully buy the Liberation Day drop last April. But that was a 20% broad-based sell-off, a single event.
Today is a different year, a different setup. Retail “buy the dippers” are going to struggle in a market near all-time highs that is also rotating out of the AI trade.
Hold some cash to find bargains during a broader, sustained correction.
March 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The global economy still runs through pipes, ports and chokepoints.
The Gulf remains the hinge between old energy and new industry.
Data centers need power. AI needs a stable infrastructure. The dollar system still prefers secure shipping lanes and orderly settlement.
Washington wants the Gulf calm enough to keep that architecture standing while the next layer of digital finance gets argued over in committee rooms and bank lobbies. Riyadh wants security, leverage and a larger chair at the table when the AI buildout starts choosing permanent winners.
March 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Markets go through many Grey Swan cycles – moves that are rare, but forecastable.
Events unfolding in the Middle East fit a pattern… an 11-year cycle tied to sunspot activity.
February 27, 2026 • Andrew Packer
There’s just something about collectibles. Perhaps it’s because you’re holding something tangible in your hand, not just a share of a company. I certainly get a lot of joy looking through my coin collection or researching prices on pieces I want to acquire someday.
Collectibles had a moment in the sun in 2021 and 2022, as investors were looking for an inflation hedge. The space has cooled off a bit, making now an optimal time to consider investing in collectibles.
While today’s focus – and my personal interest – is in rare coins – you may be more interested in stamps, art, antiques, even vintage cars. In the collectible space, there’s something for everyone. That’s part of the joy.
More importantly, with collectibles out of favor, it may be a good asset to rotate some of your wealth into.
February 27, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
If the S&P 500 closes over 6,910 today, the index will be up for February and continue its strong performance since last April.
But, looking at the monthly relative strength index (RSI), the market is flashing an overbought signal.
