From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with John Robb, Grey Swan Contributor, on the war with Iran and geopolitical effects in the age of networked warfare.
February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.
In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.
Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.
The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.
Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.
February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 19, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 25, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
China’s gold reserves have more than tripled since 2022, while the U.S. Treasury holdings have declined. The metal is rising as central banks’ sovereign bond exposure falls globally.
Capital continues to be repositioned between a Western debt-based system and an Eastern resource-based accumulation.
February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.
After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”
For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!
February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Early February brought a sharp sell-off in SaaS and AI infrastructure names. Some high-growth software stocks fell as much as 80% from prior peaks.
Retail investors, duly trained by Wall Street’s sell-side, stepped in “buy the dip” in “software as a service” (SaaS).
February 19, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The “real” annual return on bonds – net of inflation – is 2%. That’s before high transaction costs to buy and sell bonds or paying taxes on your bond income.
The return for investors, even for a safe-haven investment, is too low. Bonds will only assert their vestigial “safe-haven” status if there’s a stock market crash. (At that point, trust in everything else will have disappeared.)
February 18, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
U.S. aircraft carriers and air defense systems continue arriving in the Gulf. Iran conducted drills that briefly disrupted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and warned of retaliation for any strike.
February 18, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
It’s pretty clear from the leaderboard year-to-date that investors are moving their money out of AI stocks into real-world “stuff” – the energy and commodities, natural that are the building blocks of an economy.
February 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The crash was a major structural shock that wiped out leveraged positions and forced necessary, but painful, deleveraging across the digital asset ecosystem.
Did irresponsible marketing campaigns by certain platforms contribute to the crash? Again, I believe yes. When you incentivize users to treat a tokenized hedge fund like a stablecoin and then allow unlimited leverage on top of that, risk is amplified.
As massive as the crash was, it may have been necessary medicine. Sometimes excess leverage needs to be flushed from the system before the next move higher can begin. I believe we’re in the last stages of that process.
February 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Gallup reports that 62.1% of Americans describe themselves as thriving in 2025, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024. Yet, only 59.2% expect a high quality of life in five years, the lowest reading on record. We wonder how many of the 40.8% of the naysayers were trading on Robinhood…
Our goal at Grey Swan is to make sure we’re in the cohort of thrivers now, five years from now… and beyond.
To that end, folks who build durable positions tend to focus on balance sheets, cost structures, and who controls the pipes — whether those pipes carry rockets, data, oil, or dollars.
February 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
In the past eight-day trading period, over 20% of S&P 500 stocks have had at least one intraday decline of at least 7%.
Typically, that kind of volatility occurs in the middle of a market correction or crash – not this close to all-time highs.
February 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Mustafa Suleyman, who leads Microsoft’s AI initiatives, told the Financial Times that most white-collar professional tasks could be automated within 12 to 18 months.
Lawyers, accountants, marketers, project managers — anything related to desk work faces compression.
Challenger data showed 7,624 January layoffs attributed directly to AI — about 7% of the month’s total. Since 2023, AI has been linked to nearly 79,500 announced job cuts. Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Byrd cautioned clients that measurable macroeconomic impact may lag several years.
In Silicon Valley, Mercor quietly hired tens of thousands of highly credentialed contractors at $45 to $250 per hour to train large language models for OpenAI and Anthropic.
February 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Despite a stock market within 3% of its all-time highs, your portfolio likely feels a bigger pinch right now.
Fears of high spending on AI are leading to another pullback in the market’s biggest names. The Mag 7 stocks are collectively 10% off their peak, and now in correction territory.
