Andrew Packer / March 11, 2025
If the AI revolution plays out like the internet, we could see AI technology continue to develop, but for high-flying AI startups to collapse like dotcom stocks.
That’s not to say investors should get out now. By some measures looking at AI development versus the internet, 2025 may be another big year for tech stocks, much like stock returns in 1998 and 1999.
If anything, today’s high market valuation reflects a high level of overconfidence in stocks, as seen by how quickly sentiment has changed in recent weeks as companies like Tesla Motors have slipped 50% from their recent highs.
Addison Wiggin / March 10, 2025
Altogether, the largest banks on Wall Street appear to be taking Donald Trump’s promise of “a little wrinkle” caused by DOGE “chaos” and cliche tariff uncertainty seriously.
JPMorgan Chase’s forecast is the most philosophical. The nation’s largest bank is citing “animal spirits,” the phrase John Maynard Keynes coined to allow economists freedom from admitting they have no idea what’s going to happen next.
Andrew Packer / March 7, 2025
Right now, the headline numbers are scary.
Of course, tariffs were the big headlines all week, but the end result was more of an on-again/off-again news cycle that really only drove uncertainty. One estimate for the impact of tariffs came to 0.2% of GDP. Hardly worth the panic that tariff headlines bring.
In the meantime, where does this leave markets? Well, if we go to the S&P 500, our preferred tracking measure for the economy as a whole, we have pulled back to the 200-day moving average. We’re now slightly below where we started the year.
Addison Wiggin / March 6, 2025
We also happen to agree with a point of contention that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made repeatedly.
Way before it became a social media meme, we discussed NATO’s outlandish goals and ambitions after the fall of the Soviet Union.
In one interview we did on our podcast, The Wiggin Sessions, our friend and military historian, Byron King, outlined the gross mission creep of the bureaucracy NATO became following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Addison Wiggin / March 5, 2025
It’s no surprise that Trump sees himself as the ultimate hero. And the narrative he outlined in his “Technically Not the State of the Union” speech last night perfectly follows a three-act structure.
Only history will reveal the actual plot, whether it’s a Greek tragedy ending in torture and death… or a comedy with some happy couple getting married in an unforeseen sunlit, leafy venue.
In Trump’s first act, he became, in his mind, America’s savior in 2016. In the second act, the 2020 election was shamefully taken from him, leading to a setback. Now, he’s in the third act, the triumphant return.
That three-act “hero’s journey” narrative is one of the most powerful story frameworks that resonates with humans. It’s a structure that makes stories like Lord of the Rings and Star Wars epic and compelling.
Addison Wiggin / March 4, 2025
We’re confident the tariffs are the leading edge of a slow-motion train wreck other writers, notably Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, and we have been warning about for years: the end of America’s debt super-cycle.
The bills have come due, and the only surprise is that people are still surprised.
Jeff Berwick’s Controlled Demolition of the American Empire lays it all out. Grey Swan contributor John Robb also points to the Trump era of populism and renewed political emphasis on sovereign nations versus the failed, confusing ideas of the global elite.

Addison Wiggin / March 3, 2025
But in 2025, as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) begins to, um, barely trim the fat, AltGov has gone from shadowy obstruction to outright defiance — full V For Vendetta.
According to The Guardian, one AltGov spokesman insists the goal is to “expose harmful policies, defend public institutions, and equip citizens with tools to push back against authoritarianism.”
Sounds noble enough. But read between the lines:
Resisting isn’t about defending anything. It’s about keeping the checks flowing.

Addison Wiggin / February 28, 2025
Let’s not sugarcoat it. This is corruption. And if Congress were truly interested in stopping it, they could pass a law requiring all lawmakers to move their assets into blind trusts or limit their holdings to index funds and U.S. bonds. But don’t hold your breath.
![[Watch] DOGE is a Double-Edged Sword for Investors…](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbanyanhill.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2025%2F02%2FDOGE.png&w=1920&q=75)
Addison Wiggin / February 27, 2025
Why do I think Musk is going to be successful where everybody else has failed?
Well, the answer starts with his success at Twitter.
He bought Twitter with 8,000 employees at the time. Within a few months, he fired 80% of those employees, and yet the Twitter service was unaffected. That’s right. He was able to deliver to Twitter services with only 20% of the existing staff.
He wants to replicate that experience with the federal government, and so he has created a team of super geniuses to come in and start looking at federal programs. If it’s that easy, why hasn’t it been done before?

Addison Wiggin / February 26, 2025
You may not know this, but every senator and every representative has to declare when they make a trade, whether it’s a stock, a bond, a fund, you name it. When they are buying and selling a financial instrument, they have to report it within 30 days.
Hey, I know that there’s insider trading.
I know the politicians are corrupted … so I set out to basically tap into best of breed.
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive















