Origins of the “Grey Swans”
The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity was “conceived at the height of the global pandemic during a rare tornado warning” in Mount Vernon, Baltimore City, Maryland. Shelter-in-place directives, vaccine mandates and social distancing orders were in effect.
The founders sought to stay in touch with the network of writers, economists, financial professionals and political leaders who were not only living through the historic lockdown but sharing their findings on how to survive, even prosper, during the global phenomenon affecting billions of lives.
The term “grey swan” in finance and investment refers to events that are possible and known but considered unlikely to happen yet have a significant impact when they do occur. The more common term “black swan,” popularized by the legendary Wall Street trader Nicholas Nassim Talib, describes completely unexpected high-impact events.
Grey swans are more predictable and, as a consequence, more easily anticipated. Surprisingly, disruptive paradigm shifts in history are more commonplace than most people think. And with today’s complex, interconnected world, events that cause systemic instability happen with increased frequency.
The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity provides a unique forum for investors to converge and discuss macro investment ideas. It provides essential tools for investors seeking to navigate an increasingly polarized world.
Members of The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity study the origins of these economic and financial events and exchange powerful ideas on how to properly prepare for and survive — even thrive — through them.
The fraternity shares a long tradition dating back to 1937 when Sir Patrick Maitlan founded the Fleet Street Letter, a private investment advisory for London’s elite. Among notable forecasts, the letter warned its members to prepare for World War II, two years before Hitler’s Nazi armies invaded Poland.
In 1984, James Dale Davidson founded Strategic Investment, following the same principles. He and former Times of London chief Lord William Rees-Mogg helped readers understand the flash crash of stocks on Wall Street in October 1987 and the Fall of the Berlin Wall several years later.
In the 1990s and early 2000s, William Bonner and Addison Wiggin carried on the tradition, founding The Daily Reckoning, the first and now longest-running financial advisory on the Internet. Through New York Times best-selling books, a highly acclaimed documentary film, and work in the leading financial advisory firm Agora Financial, Wiggin and colleagues forecasted the collapse of the bubble in “dotcom” stocks on Wall Street and the rise and fall of the housing boom leading to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
In 2020, their long-standing forecast of runaway inflation in the U.S. came to fruition, altering the landscape in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Today, the Grey Swan tradition of exploring paradigm shifts continues …
Formally, through a daily communique, monthly bulletins, annual conferences, short documentary films and in-depth conversations with a wide array of talented hedge fund managers, risk assessment specialists, financial economists, geopolitical analysts, and other professionals with expertise in forecasting and managing investments in disruptive times.
Given the nature of grey swan events, the fraternity takes a multidisciplinary approach, incorporating insights from fields like geopolitics, climate science, technology trends, and social movements. These fields make up the hidden forces that shape the financial markets and global economy.
Everchanging, the areas of study include the impacts of the AI revolution in technology and on the stock market, geopolitical risks posed by the war in Ukraine and the ongoing war in the Middle East, the dramatic economic rise of China, and territorial tensions with Taiwan in the South China Sea.
Members specialize in understanding network war, innovations in cryptocurrencies, renewed interest in domestic and nuclear energy, the proliferation of misinformation and threats to free speech and the dangers of rising political, economic, and social changes at all levels of society.
In July of 2024, the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity formally opened its doors to public membership with a forecast warning that the United States of America dollar’s “World Reserve” status is in jeopardy, threatening stability in the international banking system and financial markets.
We have opinions, and we’re not afraid to use them. And we intend to entertain ourselves as we deploy our investment strategies. Or, in the words of one auspicious member, “We know the world is going to hell in a handbasket, so we like to sit together, drink wine and talk about it.”
New members share the common goal of gracefully and purposefully navigating complex shifts in the economy and financial markets.
If you’re interested in joining this group, please review your membership options here.