About Us

Grey Swan [n. gre swan – [** pronunciation key] an economic or political event that changes history suddenly and forever, thought to be highly improbable but is inherently predictable.

The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity is a society of like-minded writers, thinkers, traders, money managers, analysts, and entrepreneurs who all want to build new things, take advantage of technology to create a vibrant, safe, adventurous and productive economy.

Our mission is simple. We want to be prepared for and benefit from the inevitable historic changes that rock the investment landscape on alarming and increasing frequency.

Call us an intellectual society who have actively helped one another thrive through the worst economic downturns of the last century, and continue to prepare for what may come next.

Yes, sometimes we’re wrong. Again, no one is correct 100% of the time.

But we’d rather be prepared for the worst and not have to take action than be blindsided when ‘the worst’ actually happens. Great crises also yield enormous opportunities.

Climate change, perpetual global conflicts and rising national debt are all rife with the potential to trigger grey swan economic and financial events. We are aware of these trends, but because they are bigger than life, most people do not take them seriously enough, even if each of them will have severe and wide-ranging consequences.

We know the Big Quake in California is possible, will it happen on our watch? The surging national debt could trigger another Great Depression, but will our politics allow us to avert it?

With these questions in mind, our fraternity follows a tradition that dates back to the late 1930s and was founded during the rise of Fascism in Europe.

Fast forward to today, our thinkers forecast the fall of Communism – and the collapse of the Soviet Union – a decade before it happened.

Our investment strategies have detailed every major bubble and bust from the 1987 flash crash, the tech boom and bust of the late 1990s and the long bull market in gold from 2000 to 2011.

Following the tech bust our economic analysis of the Greenspan Federal Reserve, we forecasted the crash of the U.S. housing market in 2005 with a New York Times best-selling book four years before the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and 2009.

We’ve documented the historic and unprecedented rise in the national debt since the 1980s to a potential global crisis point of $35 trillion today.

By 2011, we were already covering Bitcoin when you could have bought a single bitcoin for a dollar –  long before prices skyrocketed to $60,000.

The rise of national Populism led us to forecast President Trump winning in 2016… and Brexit four years later.

The government’s Draconian policy reaction to the Covid pandemic was predictable as were subsequent 2020 race riots in Ferguson, Minneapolis and Baltimore.

And correctly seeing similarities in our own divisive political environment we forecasted the assassination attempt of Donald Trump in 2023 nearly a year before it happened. And then a second one two months later.

What’s fascinating about these forecasts, they were derived from the same rigid and unabashed analysis of historical, political and economic trends dating back decades.

Like our findings and forecasts in 2023, when we issued a warning about the growing problems within our financial system.

About the precarious position of the US dollar…

A weakened banking system…

The rise of China economically and an historic dislocation in labor markets leading to widespread unemployment and despair across America’s heartland…

We’ve already established that threats have continued to develop. Today we face:

• A coordinated global effort to dethrone the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency
• A stock market collapse of unprecedented scope that could erase 70% or more of your portfolio’s value
• A new housing market implosion that will make 2008 look like a minor correction
• Bank failures on a scale that could dwarf the Great Depression

After these events happen, we identify their root causes and say “well, yes, they now seem obvious.”

Our goal, our cause, our mission at the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity is to identify these trends and epic historical shifts before they happen.

You can find our latest research, forecasts and warnings by following The Grey Swan Daily Missive, here, and by choosing an appropriate membership level for investment advice right here. You’ll also find a host of alternative ideas for protecting yourself, your money and your family.

“Let us begin by noticing that this is a comic opera that seems as though it might veer into tragedy at any moment. The characters on stage are familiar to us—economists, politicians, investors, consumers, and businesspeople. They are the same hustlers, clowns, rubes, and dumbbells we always see. But in today’s performance they are doing something extraordinary: They are some of the richest people on the planet, but they have come to rely on the savings of the world’s poorest…They routinely spend more than they make—and think they can continue doing so indefinitely…They invade foreign countries believing they are spreading freedom…They run trillion-dollar deficits, routinely, giving almost no thought to who will pay…or how.”

—From the Introduction to Empire of Debt