Soaring Costs Are Ironically Tariff-Proofing the Economy

Should we be concerned about the economy – much less the stock market – as President Trump heats up his tariff rhetoric?

Perhaps, tongue-in-cheek, we should first look at the data. Where are Americans spending their money these days – and how resilient is that spending in a world of higher tariffs?

The latest troubling trend shows that Americans are spending more on healthcare – often in the form of “insurance” that doesn’t insure against anything – than on necessities like food and housing:

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Americans now spend more on healthcare than on groceries.

U.S. healthcare continues to outpace overall inflation, thanks to high government involvement in mandates and subsidies.

We note – somewhat jokingly – that if these trends continue, healthcare spending will be the entire U.S. economy by about 2150.

Meanwhile, some forms of healthcare, such as cosmetic surgery, continue to rapidly-improve over time and costs decline.

But where the government lays its hand on the scale, all Americans are burdened with the costs of a government-run healthcare plan, while still having the appearance of a private, free-market plan.

~ Addison

50 major companies that will likely fail to survive Trump’s MAGA economy. Many have 5-star ratings. Most are “buys” per Wall Street. But they’re dead companies. Click here to see the full list.

P.S. What caused the madness of America’s healthcare system? The blame starts with FDR. During World War II, wage and price freezes and a labor shortage led to employers coming up with the idea of providing health insurance.

Today, your insurance is still tied to your job – but with the negatives of government plans and mandates that make it unwieldy. And it’s a problem that looks like it’ll get worse before – err, if – it gets better, as it’s not a centerpiece of President Trump’s Great Reset plan.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Should we be concerned about the economy – much less the stock market – as President Trump heats up his tariff rhetoric?

Perhaps, tongue-in-cheek, we should first look at the data. Where are Americans spending their money these days – and how resilient is that spending in a world of higher tariffs?

Turn Your Images On

Americans now spend more on healthcare than on groceries.

U.S. healthcare continues to outpace overall inflation, thanks to high government involvement in mandates and subsidies.

We note – somewhat jokingly – that if these trends continue, healthcare spending will be the entire U.S. economy by about 2150.

Meanwhile, some forms of healthcare, such as cosmetic surgery, continue to rapidly-improve over time and costs decline.

But where the government lays its hand on the scale, all Americans are burdened with the costs of a government-run healthcare plan, while still having the appearance of a private, free-market plan.

~ Addison

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Just a couple of days ago, everyone was celebrating gold’s move above the critical $4,000 psychological resistance level. But with today’s pullback, it slipped back below that level in both COMEX futures and spot, which makes me pause and think, as it indicates a rejection of that key level.

This increases the likelihood of a modest pullback or a period of sideways consolidation, as gold may have temporarily run out of momentum to push higher in the short term. That is perfectly normal, healthy, and not at all surprising. It is much like a sprinter who has just run hard and needs a moment to catch their breath.

Gold. Stocks. Bitcoin. Prediction markets. Each a different surface on the same wave — money searching for a story it can still believe in.

The Schelling Point of this moment isn’t one price or policy; it’s the shared intuition that something historic is shifting… even though we haven’t named it.

It’s Friday. It’s a good time to “remobilize our axioms,” as my favorite William F. Buckley quote goes.

We need to stick to our guns and remember that the goal of understanding Grey Swan events as they unfold is to plan, preserve our capital, and earn a good return for the long run. Let’s not get distracted by the market highs or headlines of a terrifying bull!

Only during the ‘08 financial crisis and its aftermath have the majority of money managers seen stocks as undervalued.

This data point is another in a list of historic highs – stock indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, retail investment, retail margin borrowing – we’re seeing in the market right now.

Markets are out of whack to the upside.

History’s cautionary tale? When markets are out of whack… it takes an unsettling event (crisis) to get them back into whack.

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