If the first half of 2025 was Trump’s stage-setting — Liberty posters, tax reform, tariff threats and economic suspense — the second half opens with a plot twist: new villains, same drama and no clear ending.
We return from our post–Independence Day reprieve to find our protagonist — President Trump — still writing his epic saga in real time. With his Big Beautiful Bill signed into law and a fresh pen in hand, the man who promised “America First” has now promised tariffs for everyone else.
Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Kazakhstan, Laos, Myanmar — pick a name, slap on a percentage. If they’re cozying up to BRICS, they’ll be seeing a Trump tax at customs.
Meanwhile, the markets — dazed but not confused — finally blinked. The S&P 500, fresh off its sun-drenched record highs, tumbled Monday, led lower by the mega-caps .
The dollar, in contrast, rallied on global uncertainty, gaining 0.5% against a basket of currencies. Call it a recalibration… or maybe just indigestion from too much fireworks and too little fiscal restraint.
Risk Without Reward: Profits Go Out of Style
It’s beginning to look a lot like 1999, with a splash of 2021. A curious thing has happened this year: the worse your business fundamentals, the better your stock has done.
According to Bespoke, 858 companies in the Russell 3000 with no profits have posted gains averaging 36% in 2025 — outpacing their better-run counterparts. Of the 14 biggest gainers since April, 10 are in the red.
The stars of this speculative revival? Avis, up 125% year to date. Carvana, riding a 74% wave. Aeva — the lidar sensor company that most people still can’t explain — has soared 560%. Goldman’s retail-favorite index, the one we haven’t heard from since the meme-stock heyday of 2021, has finally hit a new all-time high.
“We’re not seeing a full-fledged ‘flight-to-crap’ yet,” says Interactive Brokers strategist Steve Sosnick, “but it’s clear the motivation behind these stocks’ activity is something other than disciplined cash-flow analysis.” Translation: investors are acting on vibes, not valuations.
Trump’s Tariff Encore: The Sequel Nobody Wanted
The 90-day tariff pause, that brief intermission after the April 2 fireworks, was supposed to calm markets and give America’s trading partners time to negotiate. Instead, they stalled.
And now, so has Trump’s patience. On Truth Social, he dropped the hammer again: 25% tariffs on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Kazakhstan. South Africa gets a 30% hit. Laos and Myanmar? A full 40%.
And that’s before we get to the bonus round.
Any country supporting the “anti-American” policies of the BRICS summit — currently underway in Rio — will get an extra 10% tariff slapped on top. Trump didn’t mention them by name, but the statement from the BRICS group over the weekend was a thinly veiled rebuke of U.S. protectionism.
Trump’s reply? A tariff cannon and a smirk.
White House To Reset Social Security?
According to this shocking report, a tiny tech firm sanctioned and hand-picked by President Trump and DOGE could be handed the biggest government tech contract in history.
A contract to completely reboot Social Security’s ancient, outdated code.
It’s not public yet.
But once the July 23 announcement hits… It could ignite one of the fastest stock runs ever.
Here’s how to play it before it’s all over the news.
Markets Can Handle Almost Anything—Except Uncertainty
Last week, investors seemed to shrug. Record highs, good government jobs data, upbeat GDP estimates — all suggested that maybe the tariff storm wouldn’t be so bad.
But Ameriprise strategist Anthony Saglimbene warned this morning: “The impacts from tariffs have been limited thus far, but are widely expected to be more visible in the second half.”
Translation: If you’re basing your positioning on Q1 optimism, you might want to hedge. Especially with more trade cliffs ahead — July 21 (Canada), August 1 (general tariffs), August 12 (China). The plot thickens, and volatility’s understudy is already waiting in the wings.
Oil Defies Logic, For Now
OPEC+ shocked traders with a 548,000 barrel-per-day production hike starting in August. You’d think that’d send oil prices tumbling — but instead, they ticked up.
Analysts still expect crude to fall below $60 by year-end, but in the short run, geopolitical tensions and supply chain adjustments are propping up prices. If you’ve been looking for the next “irrational exuberance” moment, oil might be it — trading like it’s strategic instead of supply-and-demand.
Wimbledon as an Asset Class?
And now for something completely different: want a five-year Centre Court seat at Wimbledon? A debenture will run you about $160,000.
But if you’re more into pickleball and passive income, you can sell that golden ticket on the secondary market for $275,000. That’s a 73% gain — just for holding the right to watch Federer’s ghost (and maybe Alcaraz) in peace.
Bill Ackman, it seems, will never make it to Court No. 1. But even he would admit: when memes are stocks, and seats are assets, every market’s a bubble in waiting.
Tolkienization of the Market: In Middle Earth We Trust
As discussed in our recent Grey Swan Live! with Ian King, the hottest trend in Silicon Valley may be Tolkien-themed finance. Palantir, Anduril, Erebor… These are no longer just references for fantasy nerds — they’re companies backed by Peter Thiel.
The co-founder of PayPal and Tolkien superfan has minted firms named after Elven bread, immortal metals and magical surveillance stones. Valar Ventures, Mithril Capital, Rivendell One LLC.
Now Erebor, a digital bank for startups, enters the scene. The border between Middle Earth and Wall Street? Thinning by the day.
₿ Bitcoin’s Earnings Season: Enter the Saylorverse
Mark Jeftovic of the Grey Swan Network calls it the Bitcoin Effect. Michael Saylor’s Strategy (née MicroStrategy) posted a $14.05 billion unrealized gain in Q2 as b itcoin (BTC) surged.
Yes, billion. The stock is up 3,300% since Saylor’s initial plunge into BTC in 2020. While the company booked a $4.04 billion deferred tax expense and just $112.8 million in software revenue, it joins the exclusive club of companies with operating profits north of $10 billion.
Strategy is the largest corporate holder of b itcoin, and with an at-the-market preferred stock program underway, they’re not done buying.
Wimbledon Arbitrage: Thread Counts and Profit Margins
Debenture seats at Wimbledon cost $160,000 — but can now be resold for up to $275,000. T
hat’s a 73% markup, making it perhaps the most genteel form of scalping known to man.
While Bill Ackman may never see Court No. 1, some enterprising tennis fans are making a killing just by flipping seats.
Paris Turns 2,000
Today, the City of Light celebrates 2,000 years of existence. From Gallic tribes on the Seine to Roman Lutetia, to Haussmann’s grand redesign and the Impressionist salons of the 19th century, Paris has remained a cultural and financial cornerstone. As one of the world’s most visited cities, it continues to straddle ancient legacy and modern spectacle — rather like our current markets.
What’s Ahead This Week…
Tuesday brings the NFIB small business optimism index and consumer credit data — twin lenses into how Main Street and the American shopper are weathering the storm. Together, they provide a stark portrait of the economy’s pulse.
Meanwhile, Amazon Prime Day begins today … or rather, Prime Days. The event now runs four days long and last year raked in $14 billion in spending. Analysts expect another record-breaker as consumers trade restraint for deals.
The second half of 2025 opens with fireworks and fog. The markets are still chasing dreams, even as the ground shifts beneath them. Tariffs are more than a tax — they’re a weaponized expression of a new economic order.
Profitless stocks are a signal of excess liquidity, not optimism. And every new announcement from the White House or Truth Social carries ripple effects that touch everything from currencies to commodities to your portfolio.
As an investor, your job isn’t to outguess the next tweet or tariff — it’s to understand what the world’s actually rewarding now, and what it’s quietly punishing.
In that light, cash flows still matter. Real assets still matter. Confidence, liquidity, and political clarity… matter more than ever.
~ Addison
P.S. Grey Swan Live! with Matt Milner, Thursday, July 10 at 11 a.m. ET. We’ll dig beneath the glossy headlines of democratized private equity — SpaceX, xAI and the next wave of vehicles reshaping how individuals gain exposure to once‑off‑limits deals. Opportunities? Absolutely. But the risks are as novel as the structures. Bring your questions.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
