The Passive Bid Has Already Come for Crypto

One of the most important trends underpinning markets today is the passive bid.

That’s simply the term for the fact that money comes into the market. If you’re participating in a 401(k) plan, you’re part of the passive bid. Each payday, the money that gets deducted from your paycheck goes into your investment funds.

In turn, that money moves down to individual stocks that get bought up. Payday after payday after payday.

In time, this trend could reverse. A rising unemployment rate. Higher withdrawals from retirees from stocks as they shift to bonds.

Until that shift changes, it’s a structural reason why stocks are the best game in town – and why investors should buy market pullbacks.

Today, the passive bid is also drawing capital to crypto. Just consider how Vanguard’s small-cap ETFs are regular buyers of Strategy:

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Vanguard’s Strategy holdings now top 8% of the company – and rising

Strategy – formerly MicroStrategy, until its market cap hit $100 billion – is best known today for aggressively buying bitcoin and holding it. Given that Strategy is in a number of funds, there’s already passive money flowing to shares today.

The money flowing to Strategy could soar even higher if the company is added to the S&P 500 later in the year.

For now, we prefer bitcoin to Strategy, given that shares trade at a premium to their bitcoin holdings. With positive crypto legislation on deck from Congress this week, however, expect both bitcoin and Strategy shares to add to their recent gains.

~ Andrew

This is Elon Musk’s Next Tech Disruption…

And it could turn the entire AI market upside down.

Click here to see the details and learn how to prepare.

P.S. We see cryptocurrencies as a key part of President Trump’s Great Reset plan. However, it’s more likely that stablecoins, rather than bitcoin, Ethereum or the like, will get the most attention in the coming months.

Stablecoins take a dollar, issue a token, and then the process is reversed at some point. But stablecoins also invest those dollars into U.S. Treasurys. With stablecoin demand increasing, it could become the lynchpin for refinancing America’s debt at a reasonable interest rate.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

One of the most important trends underpinning markets today is the passive bid.

In turn, that money moves down to individual stocks that get bought up. Payday after payday after payday.

In time, this trend could reverse. A rising unemployment rate. Higher withdrawals from retirees from stocks as they shift to bonds.

Until that shift changes, it’s a structural reason why stocks are the best game in town – and why investors should buy market pullbacks.

Today, the passive bid is also drawing capital to crypto. Just consider how Vanguard’s small-cap ETFs are regular buyers of Strategy:

Turn Your Images On

Vanguard’s Strategy holdings now top 8% of the company – and rising

The money flowing to Strategy could soar even higher if the company is added to the S&P 500 later in the year.

~ Andrew

This is Elon Musk’s Next Tech Disruption…

And it could turn the entire AI market upside down.

Click here to see the details and learn how to prepare.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Funds net sold U.S. equities for a fourth straight week, at the fastest clip since the opening chapter of the Trump trade war on April 2, 2025.

Despite that positioning, the indexes pushed higher on Monday.

Dip buyers stepped in after last week’s slide and nudged indexes back toward their highs.
Chipmakers gained ground, and a software ETF tacked on close to 7% across two sessions, a quick counterpoint to the sector’s recent purge. Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute described the move as the market’s reflex after steep selloffs—fast hands cover, slower money watches.

Every ten minutes, the bitcoin network completes another block of transaction data. Another bitcoin miner seeks a reward.

The reward is cut in half every four years, thanks to the “halving protocol” which established the coin’s scarcity algorithm. Next month, total bitcoin supply will hit 20 million, leaving just 1 million left to be mined.

The Nasdaq logged its fourth straight down week, pulled lower by the “SaaSpocalypse” in software.

Goldman Sachs’ Software Basket fell 16% for the week. Hedge fund exposure to software shrank sharply, according to Prime Book data.

Lou Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Baskets, told clients that buyers remained scarce even as the group entered oversold territory.

In the late 1990s, telecom infrastructure outpaced demand, pricing compressed, and equity valuations adjusted long before usage caught up.

Today’s AI buildout carries healthier balance sheets and real utility, yet capital intensity remains high, and patience wears thin when returns depend on perfect adoption curves.

The week’s trading revealed that a rotation out of high-flying tech into defensive names is well underway. The Dow, which includes broader, non-tech-related stocks, is starting the week above 50,000 for the first time in its history.