Last week’s jobless claims data was, well, whatever you wanted it to be. The ADP private payroll data showed fewer private sector jobs than forecast.
A day later, the BLS jobs report showed a massive gain.
Markets ignored the ADP report. And used the government data to rally into the three-day weekend, only to give up those gains yesterday as they were reminded that more negative tariff changes were on the way.
What to make of two different reports showing two different things? Find a third piece of data – so we did:
Americans expect a worse job market by year-end
A Bloomberg survey shows 30% of everyday Americans expect the labor market to get worse. Each jump of this magnitude in the past has preceded a recession.
Labor market data is screaming that there’s trouble in the real economy.
Except, of course, the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – the same government agency that has “revised” away over a million jobs reported as having been created during the Biden administration.
~ Addison
Is This the Company Behind
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P.S. Paid members, please join us for Grey Swan Live! with Matt Milner , Thursday, July 10 at 11 a.m. ET. With both private credit and private equity markets gaining pop trend status in the investment markets, we’ll dig deeper into Elon Musk’s SpaceX and xAI private placements — the next curveballs from the Trump arch-nemesis universe.
