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Ripple Effect

Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

July 11, 2025 • 1 minute, 45 second read


consumersdebtdebt to asset ratio

Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t

President Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill will add trillions to the federal debt.

We’re critical of that debt being frontloaded – especially at a time when interest rates are at their highest level in nearly 15 years.

Fortunately, your average American household has gotten the memo.

Today’s relatively high interest rates – essentially the cost of capital – have consumers avoiding debt. And rising asset prices, including homes and 401(k) plans, are actually improving consumer finances:

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American households continue to deleverage

Of course, that’s just on average.

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

~ Addison

MAJOR Gold Tipping Point Predicted

Turn On Your Images.

Gold has already taken Wall Street by surprise…

During Trump’s first term, it shot up by 53%.

And it has crushed the market nearly 3-to-1 since the start of the 21st century.

But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what one expert expects gold to do next…

$22,227 an ounce.

Why such a huge jump? Because of the three simple charts shown right here.

P.S. President Trump is on fire this week, adding tariffs on copper and threatening higher rates on trade partners like Canada. And targeting Vietnam as the proxy for Chinese manufacturing.

Markets are usually calm and trend higher in July, but as a centerpiece of President Trump’s Great Reset plan, we’re expecting more volatility. There’s nothing run-of-the-mill about the economy or politics right now.

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-new historic highs again yesterday, we suggest deleveraging your brokerage account, too. Take some profits off the table.

Or, as our friend and mentor Bill Bonner would say on an occasion like this: “Panic now. Avoid the rush.”

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired

December 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict. 

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired
Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy

December 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy
Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later

December 23, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots. 

Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later
2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!

December 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!