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Ripple Effect

Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

July 11, 2025 • 1 minute, 45 second read


consumersdebtdebt to asset ratio

Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t

President Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill will add trillions to the federal debt.

We’re critical of that debt being frontloaded – especially at a time when interest rates are at their highest level in nearly 15 years.

Fortunately, your average American household has gotten the memo.

Today’s relatively high interest rates – essentially the cost of capital – have consumers avoiding debt. And rising asset prices, including homes and 401(k) plans, are actually improving consumer finances:

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American households continue to deleverage

Of course, that’s just on average.

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

~ Addison

MAJOR Gold Tipping Point Predicted

Turn On Your Images.

Gold has already taken Wall Street by surprise…

During Trump’s first term, it shot up by 53%.

And it has crushed the market nearly 3-to-1 since the start of the 21st century.

But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what one expert expects gold to do next…

$22,227 an ounce.

Why such a huge jump? Because of the three simple charts shown right here.

P.S. President Trump is on fire this week, adding tariffs on copper and threatening higher rates on trade partners like Canada. And targeting Vietnam as the proxy for Chinese manufacturing.

Markets are usually calm and trend higher in July, but as a centerpiece of President Trump’s Great Reset plan, we’re expecting more volatility. There’s nothing run-of-the-mill about the economy or politics right now.

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-new historic highs again yesterday, we suggest deleveraging your brokerage account, too. Take some profits off the table.

Or, as our friend and mentor Bill Bonner would say on an occasion like this: “Panic now. Avoid the rush.”

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

Oh. Canada
Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You

February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You