Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t

President Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill will add trillions to the federal debt.

We’re critical of that debt being frontloaded – especially at a time when interest rates are at their highest level in nearly 15 years.

Fortunately, your average American household has gotten the memo.

Today’s relatively high interest rates – essentially the cost of capital – have consumers avoiding debt. And rising asset prices, including homes and 401(k) plans, are actually improving consumer finances:

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American households continue to deleverage

Of course, that’s just on average.

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

~ Addison

MAJOR Gold Tipping Point Predicted

Gold has already taken Wall Street by surprise…

During Trump’s first term, it shot up by 53%.

And it has crushed the market nearly 3-to-1 since the start of the 21st century.

But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what one expert expects gold to do next…

$22,227 an ounce.

Why such a huge jump? Because of the three simple charts shown right here.

P.S. President Trump is on fire this week, adding tariffs on copper and threatening higher rates on trade partners like Canada. And targeting Vietnam as the proxy for Chinese manufacturing.

Markets are usually calm and trend higher in July, but as a centerpiece of President Trump’s Great Reset plan, we’re expecting more volatility. There’s nothing run-of-the-mill about the economy or politics right now.

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-new historic highs again yesterday, we suggest deleveraging your brokerage account, too. Take some profits off the table.

Or, as our friend and mentor Bill Bonner would say on an occasion like this: “Panic now. Avoid the rush.”

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

President Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill will add trillions to the federal debt.

We’re critical of that debt being frontloaded – especially at a time when interest rates are at their highest level in nearly 15 years.

Fortunately, your average American household has gotten the memo.

Turn Your Images On

American households continue to deleverage

Of course, that’s just on average.

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

~ Addison

MAJOR Gold Tipping Point Predicted

Gold has already taken Wall Street by surprise…

During Trump’s first term, it shot up by 53%.

And it has crushed the market nearly 3-to-1 since the start of the 21st century.

But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what one expert expects gold to do next…

$22,227 an ounce.

Why such a huge jump? Because of the three simple charts shown right here.

P.S. President Trump is on fire this week, adding tariffs on copper and threatening higher rates on trade partners like Canada. And targeting Vietnam as the proxy for Chinese manufacturing.

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-new historic highs again yesterday, we suggest deleveraging your brokerage account, too. Take some profits off the table.

Or, as our friend and mentor Bill Bonner would say on an occasion like this: “Panic now. Avoid the rush.”

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Mining stocks amplify everything. First Majestic went from losing money to 45% margins without building anything new. They just held the line on costs while silver did the heavy lifting.

That cuts both ways. If silver drops hard, margins compress just as fast. Same leverage, opposite direction.

The miners with the lowest costs and cleanest balance sheets will hold up best in a pullback and capture the most upside if the deficit keeps grinding.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said this morning they expect core inflation to finish the year around 2% even while GDP rises at a “surprisingly strong” 2.5% clip.

In our view, their inflation forecast is optimistic. Their GDP call? Modest.

The last time we pumped this much liquidity into the system — 2020 through 2022—the result was a manic asset bubble, runaway inflation, and an epic hangover at the Fed.

Goldman’s optimism has triggered a fresh round of bullish bets: cyclical stocks are rallying, “dispersion” in the S&P 500 is spiking, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice before Jerome Powell gets kicked out of Washington at the end of his term on May 15.

Anecdotally, we’re hearing stories of warehouses full of GPUs sitting unused for lack of energy to power them. It’s a natural feature of the heavy capital investment in new machines. The grid has to catch up!

While Trump’s great reset rolls on in 2026, keep an eye on modular nuclear reactors and increased demand for uranium, natural gas and related resources.

These PM producers are literally printing the most ‘hard money’ that they ever have at these metals prices and record margins here at the midway point in Q4.

If there ever was a time for this sector to get overheated and frothy, this would be it… only that isn’t what we’ve seen playing out.

PM producers are still insanely profitable at even at current metals prices and should be far more valuable based on their margins, revenue generating potential, and their resources still in the ground.