Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t

President Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill will add trillions to the federal debt.

We’re critical of that debt being frontloaded – especially at a time when interest rates are at their highest level in nearly 15 years.

Fortunately, your average American household has gotten the memo.

Today’s relatively high interest rates – essentially the cost of capital – have consumers avoiding debt. And rising asset prices, including homes and 401(k) plans, are actually improving consumer finances:

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American households continue to deleverage

Of course, that’s just on average.

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

~ Addison

MAJOR Gold Tipping Point Predicted

Gold has already taken Wall Street by surprise…

During Trump’s first term, it shot up by 53%.

And it has crushed the market nearly 3-to-1 since the start of the 21st century.

But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what one expert expects gold to do next…

$22,227 an ounce.

Why such a huge jump? Because of the three simple charts shown right here.

P.S. President Trump is on fire this week, adding tariffs on copper and threatening higher rates on trade partners like Canada. And targeting Vietnam as the proxy for Chinese manufacturing.

Markets are usually calm and trend higher in July, but as a centerpiece of President Trump’s Great Reset plan, we’re expecting more volatility. There’s nothing run-of-the-mill about the economy or politics right now.

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-new historic highs again yesterday, we suggest deleveraging your brokerage account, too. Take some profits off the table.

Or, as our friend and mentor Bill Bonner would say on an occasion like this: “Panic now. Avoid the rush.”

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

President Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill will add trillions to the federal debt.

We’re critical of that debt being frontloaded – especially at a time when interest rates are at their highest level in nearly 15 years.

Fortunately, your average American household has gotten the memo.

Turn Your Images On

American households continue to deleverage

Of course, that’s just on average.

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

~ Addison

MAJOR Gold Tipping Point Predicted

Gold has already taken Wall Street by surprise…

During Trump’s first term, it shot up by 53%.

And it has crushed the market nearly 3-to-1 since the start of the 21st century.

But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what one expert expects gold to do next…

$22,227 an ounce.

Why such a huge jump? Because of the three simple charts shown right here.

P.S. President Trump is on fire this week, adding tariffs on copper and threatening higher rates on trade partners like Canada. And targeting Vietnam as the proxy for Chinese manufacturing.

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-new historic highs again yesterday, we suggest deleveraging your brokerage account, too. Take some profits off the table.

Or, as our friend and mentor Bill Bonner would say on an occasion like this: “Panic now. Avoid the rush.”

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Since the US confiscation of Russian assets in 2022, pretty much every pull back to 50-day moving average (red line) has been bought, and they continue to be bought. The average is now flattening out, as you would expect with this summer consolidation, rather as it did late last year. Some sideways consolidation is good. Ideally, you want to see the short-, medium- and long-term moving averages all flatten and converge. There often follows a big move higher.

As we knock off for the week approaching mid-summer, it strikes us how hard it is to distinguish signal from noise. Markets defying gravity gives us pause.

Don’t buy in at elevated prices.

Keep your asset allocation in full view.

Buy cheap.

Sell dear.

It’s a funny old world, isn’t it?

AI is buying engineers like they’re first-round picks. The military is investing in rare earths like it’s the 1950s space race. Tariffs are flying, cocoa’s getting scarce, and your cereal may soon come with a luxury markup.

None of it, likely, concerns your portfolio.

This new wave of tokenized shares is exciting. It has the potential to break down walls and democratize access to pre-IPO giants.

But at the moment, it’s also risky, opaque, and largely unregulated.

So while we applaud the innovation, we urge caution — especially if you’re being offered something that seems too good to be true.

Should we be concerned about the economy – much less the stock market – as President Trump heats up his tariff rhetoric?

Perhaps, tongue-in-cheek, we should first look at the data. Where are Americans spending their money these days – and how resilient is that spending in a world of higher tariffs?

The latest troubling trend shows that Americans are spending more on healthcare – often in the form of “insurance” that doesn’t insure against anything – than on necessities like food and housing: