Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t

President Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill will add trillions to the federal debt.

We’re critical of that debt being frontloaded – especially at a time when interest rates are at their highest level in nearly 15 years.

Fortunately, your average American household has gotten the memo.

Today’s relatively high interest rates – essentially the cost of capital – have consumers avoiding debt. And rising asset prices, including homes and 401(k) plans, are actually improving consumer finances:

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American households continue to deleverage

Of course, that’s just on average.

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

~ Addison

MAJOR Gold Tipping Point Predicted

Gold has already taken Wall Street by surprise…

During Trump’s first term, it shot up by 53%.

And it has crushed the market nearly 3-to-1 since the start of the 21st century.

But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what one expert expects gold to do next…

$22,227 an ounce.

Why such a huge jump? Because of the three simple charts shown right here.

P.S. President Trump is on fire this week, adding tariffs on copper and threatening higher rates on trade partners like Canada. And targeting Vietnam as the proxy for Chinese manufacturing.

Markets are usually calm and trend higher in July, but as a centerpiece of President Trump’s Great Reset plan, we’re expecting more volatility. There’s nothing run-of-the-mill about the economy or politics right now.

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-new historic highs again yesterday, we suggest deleveraging your brokerage account, too. Take some profits off the table.

Or, as our friend and mentor Bill Bonner would say on an occasion like this: “Panic now. Avoid the rush.”

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

President Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill will add trillions to the federal debt.

We’re critical of that debt being frontloaded – especially at a time when interest rates are at their highest level in nearly 15 years.

Fortunately, your average American household has gotten the memo.

Turn Your Images On

American households continue to deleverage

Of course, that’s just on average.

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

~ Addison

MAJOR Gold Tipping Point Predicted

Gold has already taken Wall Street by surprise…

During Trump’s first term, it shot up by 53%.

And it has crushed the market nearly 3-to-1 since the start of the 21st century.

But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what one expert expects gold to do next…

$22,227 an ounce.

Why such a huge jump? Because of the three simple charts shown right here.

P.S. President Trump is on fire this week, adding tariffs on copper and threatening higher rates on trade partners like Canada. And targeting Vietnam as the proxy for Chinese manufacturing.

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-new historic highs again yesterday, we suggest deleveraging your brokerage account, too. Take some profits off the table.

Or, as our friend and mentor Bill Bonner would say on an occasion like this: “Panic now. Avoid the rush.”

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

What we’ve seen since 2008 is nothing short of a theft of the commons. Except it happened in little pieces that seemed unrelated at the time. But if we look at the story holistically, it all comes together.

When we step back and view the entire picture, what emerges is not just a story of market excesses and economic shifts. What we see is the gutting of middle America – be it intentional or otherwise.

Now the question is – are we going to see the restoration of the American middle class in the coming years… or are we going to watch everything devolve into a modern redux of the War Between the States, more commonly but mistakenly known as the American Civil War?

Today’s Washington isn’t governed so much as stage-managed.

Politicians don’t solve problems; they perform them.

The current fixation is affordability — a word that will be repeated ad nauseam from now through the 2026 midterms, until it becomes as meaningless as “bipartisan.”

The script hasn’t changed in decades: promise relief, pass a law that raises costs, blame capitalism, hold hearings, fundraise, repeat.

Yes, Nvidia’s profits are up 500%, and its share price followed suit — a rare case where the story actually matches the math. But that’s the exception, not the rule.

Beneath the headlines, we’re starting to see the kind of financial gymnastics — circular lending, balance-sheet origami, and creative “partnerships” — that usually signal the boom is running out of breath.

If history rhymes, it looks like we’re closing in on the tail end of a mania.

As interest rates fell, investors swarmed into real estate, lured by yields and the illusion that home prices never fell. Wall Street’s private-label securitizers were soon packaging everything from pristine mortgages to what were effectively loans scribbled on napkins, thus turning them into bonds that glowed like gold — until you looked too closely.

For their part, the regulators and ratings agencies conveniently looked away and allowed the bubble to grow. Fannie Mae watched the frenzy from the sidelines at first.

The company’s mandate — written in law — was not to chase profits but to promote affordable housing. That is to say, to make sure that teachers, nurses, and other first-time buyers could own their own homes and unlock the American Dream.

But as Wall Street flooded the market with high-risk mortgage products, political pressure mounted. Congress demanded that Fannie “do its part” for low and moderate-income families.