Elon Musk’s Coming Gold Shock
Addison Wiggin / February 5, 2025
The maverick financial fraternity that predicted the Internet boom, the Great Recession, and the incredible rise of Bitcoin has a bold, new prediction…
The Presidential Pack, The Occupation and Why Your Grey Swan Inbox Is Going to DEFCON 1Addison Wiggin / March 28, 2025
The End Of The World As We Have Known It, or Navel Gazing Amid “The ChaosAddison Wiggin / March 27, 2025
The Elephant in the DOGE Room: Without Entitlement Cuts, It’s Just A Media CircusAndrew Packer / March 26, 2025
BREAKING NEWS
John Robb / March 18, 2025
Networked warfare didn’t begin in Trump’s America; it emerged earlier, far from Washington, in the chaos of the Iraq War. During the early 2000s, traditional military analyses failed against an insurgency that defied conventional explanation. Over seventy distinct Iraqi insurgent groups—driven by diverse motives such as religious zeal, tribal loyalty, or economic despair—operated together with astonishing adaptability. Though fragmented, they became a networked insurgency unified around a single goal: expelling American forces.
Bill Bonner / March 17, 2025
If the price of gold stays around $3,000, it would mean the Dow would have to fall to 15,000…another two-thirds drop. Or if gold were to go to $5,000, we’d be looking at Dow 25,000 to reach our trigger point.
Whatever. We’ll wait. And when (and if) we get a Dow priced at 5 ounces…we’ll sell gold and buy every quality stock we can find.
Do we get rich this way? It depends. More importantly, we don’t expect to get poor.
Addison Wiggin / March 14, 2025
Enter the Trump Master Playbook — a scenario where interest rates fall enough to dodge a recession (with or without the Fed), and the economy roars back from slowing growth fueled by massive government cuts.
Late 2025 kicks off like a scripted comeback, and the 2026 midterms keep the MAGA coalition in power.
Under this playbook, markets wobble early, spooked by tariffs and policy shifts, but the bond market forces Powell’s hand, slashing rates. By year’s end, cheap money fuels a new bull run. By 2026, the economy hits full stride — booming housing, surging small caps, and a stock market on a sugar high.
Addison Wiggin / March 13, 2025
Forget steel and aluminum tariffs — the next market crash will be because some guy on Twitter claims Canada is threatening to cut off maple syrup exports… or electricity, one of the two.
Musk, DOGE and tariff skirmishes have markets reacting like a cat on bath salts.
So, with all the fury and bluster, what’s an individual investor supposed to do?
Addison Wiggin / March 12, 2025
We’re here in Nassau this morning, watching the major U.S. stock indices tick lower, even after we’ve seen considerable signs of declining inflation over the past 24 hours.
The headline CPI data cooled, and a site called Truflation, which looks at 80,000 prices in real-time, suggests that inflation in the U.S. is actually at 1.35%, far under the Fed’s 2% target rate.
The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all opened higher, but have been bleeding out their gains. Funds and institutions continue to deleverage at the fastest pace since the 2020 Covid crash.
Andrew Packer / March 11, 2025
If the AI revolution plays out like the internet, we could see AI technology continue to develop, but for high-flying AI startups to collapse like dotcom stocks.
That’s not to say investors should get out now. By some measures looking at AI development versus the internet, 2025 may be another big year for tech stocks, much like stock returns in 1998 and 1999.
If anything, today’s high market valuation reflects a high level of overconfidence in stocks, as seen by how quickly sentiment has changed in recent weeks as companies like Tesla Motors have slipped 50% from their recent highs.
Addison Wiggin / March 10, 2025
Altogether, the largest banks on Wall Street appear to be taking Donald Trump’s promise of “a little wrinkle” caused by DOGE “chaos” and cliche tariff uncertainty seriously.
JPMorgan Chase’s forecast is the most philosophical. The nation’s largest bank is citing “animal spirits,” the phrase John Maynard Keynes coined to allow economists freedom from admitting they have no idea what’s going to happen next.
Andrew Packer / March 7, 2025
Right now, the headline numbers are scary.
Of course, tariffs were the big headlines all week, but the end result was more of an on-again/off-again news cycle that really only drove uncertainty. One estimate for the impact of tariffs came to 0.2% of GDP. Hardly worth the panic that tariff headlines bring.
In the meantime, where does this leave markets? Well, if we go to the S&P 500, our preferred tracking measure for the economy as a whole, we have pulled back to the 200-day moving average. We’re now slightly below where we started the year.
Addison Wiggin / March 6, 2025
We also happen to agree with a point of contention that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made repeatedly.
Way before it became a social media meme, we discussed NATO’s outlandish goals and ambitions after the fall of the Soviet Union.
In one interview we did on our podcast, The Wiggin Sessions, our friend and military historian, Byron King, outlined the gross mission creep of the bureaucracy NATO became following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Addison Wiggin / March 5, 2025
It’s no surprise that Trump sees himself as the ultimate hero. And the narrative he outlined in his “Technically Not the State of the Union” speech last night perfectly follows a three-act structure.
Only history will reveal the actual plot, whether it’s a Greek tragedy ending in torture and death… or a comedy with some happy couple getting married in an unforeseen sunlit, leafy venue.
In Trump’s first act, he became, in his mind, America’s savior in 2016. In the second act, the 2020 election was shamefully taken from him, leading to a setback. Now, he’s in the third act, the triumphant return.
That three-act “hero’s journey” narrative is one of the most powerful story frameworks that resonates with humans. It’s a structure that makes stories like Lord of the Rings and Star Wars epic and compelling.
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
