Instead of leaping, employment is falling down dead. Last month’s new job count, at 22,000, was statistically insignificant. Most of the numbers that are reported are later revised lower. This one is likely to go to zero.

The whole purpose – at least, as stated publicly – of the trade war was to bring good-paying manufacturing jobs back to the US. But with last week’s report, the number of ‘goods producing’ jobs has fallen by nearly 50,000 since January. Since 2007, more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost.

The question hanging in the air: Is the market about to correct… or are we just entering the next leg of a crack-up boom?

Investors will try to regroup this week, like the Ravens, who, after dominating the Bills all night Sunday, watched a 15-point deficit erode in the last six minutes of the game. The Ravens lost 43-42. Bills kicked a field goal with 8 seconds on the clock. A video of the Baltimore quarterback, Lamar Jackson, getting into a shoving match with a Bills fan after the game went viral. 

Inflation data is due Thursday, ahead of the Fed meeting next week.

Consensus is for a quarter-point cut. But after Friday’s jobs report, whispers of a half-point cut are growing louder. The most terrifying bull market in history would only get more fuel.

When it comes to AI, it’s a strong echo to the dotcom boom.

Nvidia, the poster child for the necessary hardware behind AI systems, is akin to that of router manufacturer Cisco.

Cisco shares soared thousands of percentage points in the 1990s, only to collapse once everyone had a PC connected to the internet.

Where exactly are we today in terms of a similar move? In a way, 2025 has looked much like 1998 – early into the bubble, but not quite at the blow-off top.