Yesterday’s Biggest Market Loser Will Be Back

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a 4.25%-4.5% range.

The real action came from President Trump’s various trade announcements.

That included finalizing a tariff on raw copper imports of 50%. That’s lower than what Trump had hinted at – imagine that.

As a result, copper had its biggest daily drop on record, and the metal gave up all of its massive gains for 2025:

Turn Your Images On

Copper prices soared on the prospect of steep tariffs, then collapsed as the reality wasn’t as bad as imagined

The U.S. still needs to import about 1 million tonnes of copper annually to meet its needs.

Just as the market overreacted and overheated, now may be a second chance to buy into the copper trade with a longer-term view.

~ Addison

P.S. While the Fed held rates steady, two members of the FOMC dissented from the decision, the first time since 1993.

Turmoil continues to brew at the Federal Reserve, and it’s very likely that the next Grey Swan event is kicked off from events swirling around the Fed, its Chairman Jerome Powell, and President Trump – who once again took to Truth Social this morning to criticize Powell for being, “TOO LATE.”

That’s why assets like gold, which also sold off yesterday, still look attractive.

Our very first recommendation in the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity seeks to capitalize quickly on copper’s whopper price action. Details for new paying members are on the way. Check your inbox.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a 4.25%-4.5% range.

The real action came from President Trump’s various trade announcements.

That included finalizing a tariff on raw copper imports of 50%. That’s lower than what Trump had hinted at – imagine that.

As a result, copper had its biggest daily drop on record, and the metal gave up all of its massive gains for 2025:

Turn Your Images On

Copper prices soared on the prospect of steep tariffs, then collapsed as the reality wasn’t as bad as imagined

The U.S. still needs to import about 1 million tonnes of copper annually to meet its needs.

Just as the market overreacted and overheated, now may be a second chance to buy into the copper trade with a longer-term view.

~ Addison

P.S. While the Fed held rates steady, two members of the FOMC dissented from the decision, the first time since 1993.

That’s why assets like gold, which also sold off yesterday, still look attractive.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

My mum remembers the gold fever – and indeed the silver fever (silver spiked to $50 three days earlier on January 18). Even today, 45 years on, the silver price is lower than it was then – that’s how insane that spike was.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

After yesterday’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, the world’s two largest economies agreed to reduce the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, while Beijing paused its rare earth export restrictions.

The markets would normally have cheered such détente. But investors were still haunted by Jerome Powell’s warning that the Fed may not cut rates again in December. And a renewed awareness that the AI bubble may, in fact, be in the “melt-up” phase… driven by expansive capital expenditures, financed by debt.

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998.

Milei, meanwhile, is doing something different. He’s cutting budgets, trimming employees, and chopping off unnecessary bureaucratic appendages. He’s been in office for a little shy of two years. During that time, he’s reduced inflation by about 90% and cut the budget deficit by 100%. Argentina has climbed out of its almost permanent recession to have the fastest growing economy in the Americas, with GDP growth more than twice that of the US. Real wages have tripled. And poverty has been cut by 40%.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998.