GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2025 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Ripple Effect

Volatility Season Arrives Like Clockwork

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 1, 2025 • 2 minute, 15 second read


volatility

Volatility Season Arrives Like Clockwork

Right on cue, markets are ending the week on a sour note as August rolls around and President Trump’s tariff tweaks are pointing higher, not lower.

Whether or not President Trump had made the move, markets were likely to pull back anyway.

That’s just a function of market statistics – August is just a poor month for stocks, and why we pounded the table in July to take some profits off the table and raise some cash.

Meanwhile, today’s mild selloff will likely bleed further in the coming weeks. Why? Because market volatility is on the low side for this time of year:

Turn Your Images On

Market volatility tends to have a spring spike, lower in the summer, and rise starting in August. Trump’s tariff regime has exacerbated the trends. (Source: Topdown Charts).

With tariff tantrums back on the menu, investors might want to look back on the spring volatility – and plan accordingly over the next few months.

Remember, volatility isn’t just markets going down. It means bigger one-day moves in the market. So if you haven’t taken some recent profits off the table and increased your cash position yet, today’s market drop is a flashing signal to do so.

For more aggressive traders, like the members of our new Grey Swan Trading Fraternity, we already forecast a rise in volatility earlier in the week– and can’t help but note that our tracking ETF for that trend, UVXY, is up 10.3% this morning – and about 19% since Tuesday.

Good start. Congratulations to you if you acted on your first recommendation.

But if you took action and bought this ETF, you should take profits now.

A 19% gain in just a few days on an ETF is a great return – turning a $10,000 investment into nearly $12,000 – at a time when the market has turned south.

However, market volatility can be fickle. That’s why it’s best to use UVXY for short-term events like the one we forecast this week.

Whether you joined our Grey Swan Trading Fraternity service or not, please take profits.

But given the nature of volatility, if you took action on this ETF, take your profits now going into the weekend.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Meanwhile, assets like gold, which are also selling off with the markets, still look attractive.

Global money supply continues to increase, and inflationary pressures remain – and they’ll explode even higher in a market crisis, when central banks are forced to take aggressive action. Use any big down days in the metal – or related plays like silver and copper – to add to your stake there.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


The Useless Metal that Rules the World

August 29, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

Gold has led people to do the most brilliant, the most brave, the most inventive, the most innovative and the most terrible things. ‘More men have been knocked off balance by gold than by love,’ runs the saying, usually attributed to Benjamin Disraeli. Where gold is concerned, emotion, not logic, prevails. Even in today’s markets it is a speculative asset whose price is driven by greed and fear, not by fundamental production numbers.

The Useless Metal that Rules the World
The Regrettable Repetition

August 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Fresh GDP data — the Commerce Department revised Q2 growth upward to 3.3% — fueling the rally. Investors cheered the “Goldilocks” read: strong enough to keep the music going, not hot enough (at least on paper) to derail hopes for a Fed pivot.

Even the oddball tickers joined in. Perhaps as fittingly as Lego, Build-A-Bear Workshop popped after beating earnings forecasts, on track for its fifth consecutive record year, thanks to digital expansion.

Neither represents a bellwether of industrial might — but in this market, even teddy bears roar.

The Regrettable Repetition
Gold’s Primary Trend Remains Intact

August 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In modern finance theory, only U.S. T-bills are considered risk-free assets.

Central banks are telling us they believe the real risk-free asset is gold.

Our Grey Swan research shows exactly how the dynamic between government finance and gold is playing out in real time.

Gold’s Primary Trend Remains Intact
Socialist Economics 101

August 28, 2025 • Lau Vegys

When we compare apples to apples—median home prices to median household income, both annualized—we get a much more nuanced picture. Housing has indeed become less affordable, with the price-to-income ratio climbing from roughly 3.5 in 1984 to about 5.3 today. In other words, the typical American family now has to work much harder to afford the same home.

But notice something crucial: the steepest increases coincide precisely with periods of massive government intervention. The post-dot-com bubble recovery fueled by Fed easy money after 2001. The housing bubble inflated by government-backed mortgages and Fannie Mae shenanigans. The recent explosion driven by unprecedented monetary stimulus and COVID lockdown policies.

Socialist Economics 101