GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2025 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Ripple Effect

Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

July 30, 2025 • 48 second read


CPIgovernment statisticsstatistics

Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics

Every day, millions of investors make decisions in part on economic data.

This morning, markets are digesting the news that GDP rose at a 3% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2025 – a sharp reversal from the negative read in the first quarter.

However, government statistics tend to get revised. Worse, today, an increasing amount of data that goes into those statistics isn’t even accurate – it’s an admitted guess:

Turn Your Images On

Government statistics are increasingly based on guesswork, not facts.

In this instance, CPI, which drives inflation, is usually based on the costs of about 90,000 goods across the economy. But with one-third of the data now based on an estimate — or worse, a guesstimate — it makes CPI data suspect.

This makes other measures, like PPI, suspect, making it impossible for the Fed to accurately determine inflation or its trend.

~ Addison

P.S.  As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Speedrunning Rome

October 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Technology is a double-edged sword. We’re still living in the long tail of a hard money, capitalist society – and reaping new technologies out of it.

But the destruction of the purchasing power of the dollar stands to create a crisis – and drive investors back to safe havens like gold.

Speedrunning Rome
George Gilder: Intel: Sell the Rumors, Await the News

October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

All these rumors could work out to Intel’s benefit. That’s something no investor can know. What we can know is that the road to recovery will be a rocky one, fraught with disappointments along the way. It is all but certain that at some point, Intel stock will once again be far cheaper than it is today. And at that later date, investors will have far more information to be able to judge the likely success of the promised comeback. We’re not going to buy the rumors. We will wait for the news.

George Gilder: Intel: Sell the Rumors, Await the News
Gold’s $4,000 Moment

October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

There’s something about big, round numbers that draws investors like moths to a flame.

In the stock market, every 1,000 points in the Dow or 100 points in the S&P 500 tends to act like a magnet.

Now, after consolidating for five months, gold has broken higher to $4,000.

Gold’s $4,000 Moment
The 45% Club

October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

AI stocks are running hot. They’re not the only game in town… but they’re about half of it.

JPMorgan just reviewed all of the 500 companies in the S&P 500. A full 41 of them are AI-related. While that’s less than 10% of the index by total, it is over 45% of the index by market cap.

The 45% Club