Beneath the Surface
Finally, the Junior Miners Are Outperforming
July 22, 2025 • 4 minute, 35 second read
“Governments lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie. Gold tells the truth.”
—Lord William Rees-Mogg
July 22, 2025 — The wait was long, but the payoff is big: Junior miners are finally driving the action in precious metals.
Grey Swan contributor, Shad Marquitz, just posted an interview at the Korelin Economics Report with mining analyst Dave Erfle, who explains why this trend has legs.
Here’s an excerpt:
Financing Surge, Juniors Outperforming, and a Bullish Setup in Precious Metals – With Dave Erfle
In this episode of the KE Report, I sit down with Dave Erfle, founder and editor of Junior Miner Junky, to unpack why the financing window for juniors is wide open and how market dynamics are setting up a textbook bull market. From strategic partner investments to copper’s tariff-driven rally, Dave shares why he believes the juniors are leading a powerful rotation.
Key Highlights
Strategic Money Flows Into Juniors
“We’re seeing $30 million financings for higher-risk juniors with major strategic partners taking big positions.”
Three financings this week alone in PEA-stage companies show majors hunting ounces.
Strategic investment signals sector confidence and accelerates M&A potential.
Actionable takeaway: Watch for juniors attracting majors as a leading indicator of momentum.
Gold Miners Gearing Up for Q2 Earnings
“Newmont pumped out $1.2B free cash flow last quarter; I wouldn’t be surprised to see $1.5B this quarter.”
Gold’s $400/oz higher average price in Q2 points to stronger margins and cash flow.
Market is still pricing many miners as if gold is $2,000/oz, creating valuation gaps.
Actionable takeaway: Position ahead of earnings; expect upgrades and reratings.
Juniors Outperforming Majors
“The juniors are finally providing leverage – up over two times the gold price.”
A shift from defensive majors to risk-on juniors is underway.
GDX targeting $60 once consolidation resolves.
Actionable takeaway: Add selective juniors while financing strength and upside momentum align.
Silver & Copper Momentum
“Silver hit a 14-year high and is holding bullish flags – while copper reacts sharply to tariffs.”
Gold/silver ratio below 88; silver showing relative strength during gold’s consolidation.
Copper rally driven by inventory draws and tariff uncertainty; bullish flag forming.
Actionable takeaway: Monitor silver near $37.50 support and copper near $5 for breakout signals.
Sector-Wide Bullish Signals
“Financings are being bought, not sold – that’s what happens in a bull market.”
Upsized financings, quick closes, and price strength post-finance = strong institutional demand.
Actionable takeaway: Follow the money – juniors with no warrants or strategic buyers stand out.
P.S. from Addison: In addition to Shad’s observations, Mr. Packer, keeping an eye on the Grey Swan model portfolio, notes:
Gold mining companies are leveraged to the price of gold. That’s because their costs are fixed in the short term. So higher gold prices cause profits to surge.
Smaller companies – the so-called juniors – in the business of exploring can fare even better if they have a strong find.
Today, gold’s price looks ready to move higher, after pausing for a few months – there’s a “pennant” formation in the price chart. If that plays out, gold could top $4,200 in the next year.
We’ve added that our own gold research, looking at the total value of gold relative to fiat money supply, suggests a much higher price for gold by the end of the decade – easily into the five figures.
In other words, the gold story is just starting to take off. Make sure you’re properly allocated to both the metal, and the mining companies that can outperform the metal.
Gold’s not the only story here. Despite the summer lull, things are heating up across the rare earths and natural resource markets.
“I put on a series of trades a couple weeks back,” writes one correspondent, “based on the idea that the Trump administration will invest in – or at least be friendly to – US-based miners and metal processors. This was after the Defense Dept took a big stake in MP.”
You’ll recall Pete Hegseth’s announcement of the MP deal on July 10.
Our correspondent shares these results:
Piedmont Lithium +13%
Century Aluminum + 19%
Ferroglobe PLC +10%
Taseko Mines -0.5%
Alcoa + 11%
Hudbay Minerals -1.5%
Freeport McMoRan +5%
Capstone Copper +4%
Southern Copper +2%
Graphite One + 39%
American Rare Earths + 36%
Electra Battery + 4%
Westwater Resources +45%
“My original pick of Uranium Energy Fuels from a few months back,” our correspondent concludes, “is up 114%.”
Then added this throwaway: “Platinum funds are also doing great:
PPLT +49%
SPPP + 38%
We’re not sharing these trades as any form of track record or proof of trading strategy, just as evidence that the sector is getting hot.
Which is refreshing after years of being, well, not so hot.
That’s also why we asked Shad Marquitz, mentioned above, to join us again on Grey Swan Live! Thursday, July 24 @ 11 a.m. ET.
Shad regaled us last time with a litany of tickers he likes in the natural resource space. We covered rare earth minerals, uranium and nuclear energy, precious metals and building materials.
Since we last spoke with Shad, Trump tariff’s and rare earth deals with China have snuck into the news cycle, in addition to the Defense Department’s strategic move into the space.
On Thursday, we’ll get a chance for another full run down with Shad. He’s very articulate on investing in natural resources. If you’re interested in this overlooked space that’s starting to heat up again, you’ll want to join us Live!
Details for fully-paid readers to follow. Enjoy!
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
