Finally, the Junior Miners Are Outperforming

“Governments lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie. Gold tells the truth.”

—Lord William Rees-Mogg

July 22, 2025 — The wait was long, but the payoff is big: Junior miners are finally driving the action in precious metals.

Grey Swan contributor, Shad Marquitz, just posted an interview at the Korelin Economics Report with mining analyst Dave Erfle, who explains why this trend has legs.

Here’s an excerpt:

Financing Surge, Juniors Outperforming, and a Bullish Setup in Precious Metals – With Dave Erfle

In this episode of the KE Report, I sit down with Dave Erfle, founder and editor of Junior Miner Junky, to unpack why the financing window for juniors is wide open and how market dynamics are setting up a textbook bull market. From strategic partner investments to copper’s tariff-driven rally, Dave shares why he believes the juniors are leading a powerful rotation.

Key Highlights

Strategic Money Flows Into Juniors

“We’re seeing $30 million financings for higher-risk juniors with major strategic partners taking big positions.”

Three financings this week alone in PEA-stage companies show majors hunting ounces.

Strategic investment signals sector confidence and accelerates M&A potential.

Actionable takeaway: Watch for juniors attracting majors as a leading indicator of momentum.

Gold Miners Gearing Up for Q2 Earnings

“Newmont pumped out $1.2B free cash flow last quarter; I wouldn’t be surprised to see $1.5B this quarter.”

Gold’s $400/oz higher average price in Q2 points to stronger margins and cash flow.

Market is still pricing many miners as if gold is $2,000/oz, creating valuation gaps.

Actionable takeaway: Position ahead of earnings; expect upgrades and reratings.

Juniors Outperforming Majors

“The juniors are finally providing leverage – up over two times the gold price.”

A shift from defensive majors to risk-on juniors is underway.

GDX targeting $60 once consolidation resolves.

Actionable takeaway: Add selective juniors while financing strength and upside momentum align.

Silver & Copper Momentum

“Silver hit a 14-year high and is holding bullish flags – while copper reacts sharply to tariffs.”

Gold/silver ratio below 88; silver showing relative strength during gold’s consolidation.

Copper rally driven by inventory draws and tariff uncertainty; bullish flag forming.

Actionable takeaway: Monitor silver near $37.50 support and copper near $5 for breakout signals.

Sector-Wide Bullish Signals

“Financings are being bought, not sold – that’s what happens in a bull market.”

Upsized financings, quick closes, and price strength post-finance = strong institutional demand.

Actionable takeaway: Follow the money – juniors with no warrants or strategic buyers stand out.

P.S. from Addison: In addition to Shad’s observations, Mr. Packer, keeping an eye on the Grey Swan model portfolio, notes:

Gold mining companies are leveraged to the price of gold. That’s because their costs are fixed in the short term. So higher gold prices cause profits to surge.

Smaller companies – the so-called juniors – in the business of exploring can fare even better if they have a strong find.

Today, gold’s price looks ready to move higher, after pausing for a few months – there’s a “pennant” formation in the price chart. If that plays out, gold could top $4,200 in the next year.

Turn Your Images On

We’ve added that our own gold research, looking at the total value of gold relative to fiat money supply, suggests a much higher price for gold by the end of the decade – easily into the five figures.

In other words, the gold story is just starting to take off. Make sure you’re properly allocated to both the metal, and the mining companies that can outperform the metal.

Gold’s not the only story here. Despite the summer lull, things are heating up across the rare earths and natural resource markets.

“I put on a series of trades a couple weeks back,” writes one correspondent, “based on the idea that the Trump administration will invest in – or at least be friendly to – US-based miners and metal processors. This was after the Defense Dept took a big stake in MP.”

You’ll recall Pete Hegseth’s announcement of the MP deal on July 10.

Our correspondent shares these results:

Piedmont Lithium +13%
Century Aluminum + 19%
Ferroglobe PLC +10%
Taseko Mines -0.5%
Alcoa + 11%
Hudbay Minerals -1.5%
Freeport McMoRan +5%
Capstone Copper +4%
Southern Copper +2%
Graphite One + 39%
American Rare Earths + 36%
Electra Battery + 4%
Westwater Resources +45%

“My original pick of Uranium Energy Fuels from a few months back,” our correspondent concludes, “is up 114%.”

Then added this throwaway: “Platinum funds are also doing great:

PPLT +49%
SPPP + 38%

We’re not sharing these trades as any form of track record or proof of trading strategy, just as evidence that the sector is getting hot.

Which is refreshing after years of being, well, not so hot.

That’s also why we asked Shad Marquitz, mentioned above, to join us again on Grey Swan Live! Thursday, July 24 @ 11 a.m. ET.

Shad regaled us last time with a litany of tickers he likes in the natural resource space. We covered rare earth minerals, uranium and nuclear energy, precious metals and building materials.

Since we last spoke with Shad, Trump tariff’s and rare earth deals with China have snuck into the news cycle, in addition to the Defense Department’s strategic move into the space.

On Thursday, we’ll get a chance for another full run down with Shad. He’s very articulate on investing in natural resources. If you’re interested in this overlooked space that’s starting to heat up again, you’ll want to join us Live!

Details for fully-paid readers to follow. Enjoy!

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

“Governments lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie. Gold tells the truth.”

—Lord William Rees-Mogg

July 22, 2025 — The wait was long, but the payoff is big: Junior miners are finally driving the action in precious metals.

Grey Swan contributor, Shad Marquitz, just posted an interview at the Korelin Economics Report with mining analyst Dave Erfle, who explains why this trend has legs.

Here’s an excerpt:

Financing Surge, Juniors Outperforming, and a Bullish Setup in Precious Metals – With Dave Erfle

Key Highlights

Strategic Money Flows Into Juniors

“We’re seeing $30 million financings for higher-risk juniors with major strategic partners taking big positions.”

Three financings this week alone in PEA-stage companies show majors hunting ounces.

Strategic investment signals sector confidence and accelerates M&A potential.

Actionable takeaway: Watch for juniors attracting majors as a leading indicator of momentum.

Gold Miners Gearing Up for Q2 Earnings

“Newmont pumped out $1.2B free cash flow last quarter; I wouldn’t be surprised to see $1.5B this quarter.”

Gold’s $400/oz higher average price in Q2 points to stronger margins and cash flow.

Market is still pricing many miners as if gold is $2,000/oz, creating valuation gaps.

Actionable takeaway: Position ahead of earnings; expect upgrades and reratings.

Juniors Outperforming Majors

“The juniors are finally providing leverage – up over two times the gold price.”

A shift from defensive majors to risk-on juniors is underway.

GDX targeting $60 once consolidation resolves.

Actionable takeaway: Add selective juniors while financing strength and upside momentum align.

Silver & Copper Momentum

“Silver hit a 14-year high and is holding bullish flags – while copper reacts sharply to tariffs.”

Gold/silver ratio below 88; silver showing relative strength during gold’s consolidation.

Copper rally driven by inventory draws and tariff uncertainty; bullish flag forming.

Actionable takeaway: Monitor silver near $37.50 support and copper near $5 for breakout signals.

Sector-Wide Bullish Signals

“Financings are being bought, not sold – that’s what happens in a bull market.”

Upsized financings, quick closes, and price strength post-finance = strong institutional demand.

Actionable takeaway: Follow the money – juniors with no warrants or strategic buyers stand out.

P.S. from Addison: In addition to Shad’s observations, Mr. Packer, keeping an eye on the Grey Swan model portfolio, notes:

Gold mining companies are leveraged to the price of gold. That’s because their costs are fixed in the short term. So higher gold prices cause profits to surge.

Smaller companies – the so-called juniors – in the business of exploring can fare even better if they have a strong find.

Today, gold’s price looks ready to move higher, after pausing for a few months – there’s a “pennant” formation in the price chart. If that plays out, gold could top $4,200 in the next year.

Turn Your Images On

In other words, the gold story is just starting to take off. Make sure you’re properly allocated to both the metal, and the mining companies that can outperform the metal.

Gold’s not the only story here. Despite the summer lull, things are heating up across the rare earths and natural resource markets.

You’ll recall Pete Hegseth’s announcement of the MP deal on July 10.

Our correspondent shares these results:

“My original pick of Uranium Energy Fuels from a few months back,” our correspondent concludes, “is up 114%.”

Then added this throwaway: “Platinum funds are also doing great:

PPLT +49%
SPPP + 38%

We’re not sharing these trades as any form of track record or proof of trading strategy, just as evidence that the sector is getting hot.

Which is refreshing after years of being, well, not so hot.

That’s also why we asked Shad Marquitz, mentioned above, to join us again on Grey Swan Live! Thursday, July 24 @ 11 a.m. ET.

Shad regaled us last time with a litany of tickers he likes in the natural resource space. We covered rare earth minerals, uranium and nuclear energy, precious metals and building materials.

Since we last spoke with Shad, Trump tariff’s and rare earth deals with China have snuck into the news cycle, in addition to the Defense Department’s strategic move into the space.

Details for fully-paid readers to follow. Enjoy!

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

America has consistently reinvented itself in times of crisis. The founders survived monarchy. Lincoln survived disunion. We’ve survived bank panics, oil shocks, stagflation, and disco. We’ll survive deplatforming, too.

The Second American Revolution won’t be fought with muskets or manifestos. It won’t be fought with petty violence and street demonstrations. It will be written into code. And available to those who wish to take advantage of it.

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called stablecoins, including USDC, “a pillar of dollar strength,” estimating a $2 trillion market within five years. U.S. Treasuries back every coin.

Bessent’s formula even suggests that a broader, more efficient market for US dollars will help retain its best use case as the reserve currency of global finance… and, perhaps, help the current administration address the nation’s $37 trillion mountain of debt.

In trying to cancel a man, the establishment accidentally reinforced the dollar, and may add decades to its life as a useful currency.

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

Political philosopher Russell Kirk called it “a revolution not made but prevented.” The colonists sought not chaos but continuity — the defense of their “chartered rights as Englishmen,” not the birth of an entirely new world. Kirk wrote:

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

Two and a half centuries later, the argument continues — only now, the battlefield is financial. Who controls access to money? Who defines legitimacy? Can a citizen’s ability to transact depend on their politics?

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.