Ripple Effect
Log Out of Your Brokerage Account Until Labor Day
July 22, 2025 • 1 minute, 58 second read
Although the S&P 500 closed at all-time highs again yesterday, the markets have materially slowed down over the past week.
With a busy week for earnings ahead, there may be some more upside. But seasonally, August is a slow month for stocks, and September tends to see markets pull back.
Here’s a chart worth saving and referring back to – it’s a composite that shows the S&P 500’s average daily performance throughout any given year:
The seasonal weak period for stocks has arrived.
Why do markets slow down in the lazy days of summer?
Historically, it’s when brokers used to take their vacations and motor off to the Hamptons.
Today, with algorithms running the show, it’s harder to say why.
But it’s a trend that has largely remained intact over the decades, and while past performance doesn’t show future performance, it’s a seasonal trend worth remembering.
If you’re not a trader, you can probably log out of your brokerage account for the next few months and not miss anything.
If you’re a trader, beware – the lack of a clear direction either way could be a challenge. And a slowdown in markets could precede an autumn selloff. Now isn’t the time to make overly leveraged trades, and to exit them if you’ve been in them.
After this year’s “Liberation Day” slide lower, stocks may not be inclined for a massive pullback this summer – but it would be healthy for markets before a year-end rally.
~ Addison
P.S. With markets slowing down now, they’re at greater risk of breaking lower following their massive rally over the past few months.
As we learn more about tariffs and trade deals – not to mention earnings – over the coming weeks, the seasonal selloff period in September and October could be more volatile than usual. Another reason to avoid leverage, and enjoy other things in life besides the stock market for the next few months.
As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three.
