Log Out of Your Brokerage Account Until Labor Day

Although the S&P 500 closed at all-time highs again yesterday, the markets have materially slowed down over the past week.

With a busy week for earnings ahead, there may be some more upside. But seasonally, August is a slow month for stocks, and September tends to see markets pull back.

Here’s a chart worth saving and referring back to – it’s a composite that shows the S&P 500’s average daily performance throughout any given year:

Turn Your Images On

The seasonal weak period for stocks has arrived.

Why do markets slow down in the lazy days of summer?

Historically, it’s when brokers used to take their vacations and motor off to the Hamptons.

Today, with algorithms running the show, it’s harder to say why.

But it’s a trend that has largely remained intact over the decades, and while past performance doesn’t show future performance, it’s a seasonal trend worth remembering.

If you’re not a trader, you can probably log out of your brokerage account for the next few months and not miss anything.

If you’re a trader, beware – the lack of a clear direction either way could be a challenge. And a slowdown in markets could precede an autumn selloff. Now isn’t the time to make overly leveraged trades, and to exit them if you’ve been in them.

After this year’s “Liberation Day” slide lower, stocks may not be inclined for a massive pullback this summer – but it would be healthy for markets before a year-end rally.

~ Addison

P.S. With markets slowing down now, they’re at greater risk of breaking lower following their massive rally over the past few months.

As we learn more about tariffs and trade deals – not to mention earnings – over the coming weeks, the seasonal selloff period in September and October could be more volatile than usual. Another reason to avoid leverage, and enjoy other things in life besides the stock market for the next few months.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three.

Although the S&P 500 closed at all-time highs again yesterday, the markets have materially slowed down over the past week.

With a busy week for earnings ahead, there may be some more upside. But seasonally, August is a slow month for stocks, and September tends to see markets pull back.

Here’s a chart worth saving and referring back to – it’s a composite that shows the S&P 500’s average daily performance throughout any given year:

Turn Your Images On

The seasonal weak period for stocks has arrived.

Why do markets slow down in the lazy days of summer?

Historically, it’s when brokers used to take their vacations and motor off to the Hamptons.

Today, with algorithms running the show, it’s harder to say why.

But it’s a trend that has largely remained intact over the decades, and while past performance doesn’t show future performance, it’s a seasonal trend worth remembering.

If you’re not a trader, you can probably log out of your brokerage account for the next few months and not miss anything.

After this year’s “Liberation Day” slide lower, stocks may not be inclined for a massive pullback this summer – but it would be healthy for markets before a year-end rally.

~ Addison

P.S. With markets slowing down now, they’re at greater risk of breaking lower following their massive rally over the past few months.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Under the frost-crusted shrubs, the bears are sniffing around for scraps of bloody meat.

They smell the subtle rot of credit stress, central-bank desperation, and debt that’s beginning to steam in the cold. They’re not charging — not yet. But they’re present. Watching. Testing the doors.

Retail investors, last in line, await the Fed’s final announcement of the year on Wednesday. Then the central planners of the world get their turn: the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank.

Treasuries just suffered their worst week since June. And in Japan — the quiet godfather of global liquidity — something fundamental is breaking.

Silver continues its blistering ascent. Gold and bitcoin have settled in at $4,200 and $92,000, respectively.

It’s absurd, really, for any politician to be talking about “affordability.”

The data is clear. If higher prices are your goal, let the government “fix” them.

Mandates, paperwork, and busybodies telling you what you can and can’t do – it’s not a surprise why costs add up.

In contrast, if you want lower prices, do nothing– zilch. Let the market work.