Log Out of Your Brokerage Account Until Labor Day

Although the S&P 500 closed at all-time highs again yesterday, the markets have materially slowed down over the past week.

With a busy week for earnings ahead, there may be some more upside. But seasonally, August is a slow month for stocks, and September tends to see markets pull back.

Here’s a chart worth saving and referring back to – it’s a composite that shows the S&P 500’s average daily performance throughout any given year:

Turn Your Images On

The seasonal weak period for stocks has arrived.

Why do markets slow down in the lazy days of summer?

Historically, it’s when brokers used to take their vacations and motor off to the Hamptons.

Today, with algorithms running the show, it’s harder to say why.

But it’s a trend that has largely remained intact over the decades, and while past performance doesn’t show future performance, it’s a seasonal trend worth remembering.

If you’re not a trader, you can probably log out of your brokerage account for the next few months and not miss anything.

If you’re a trader, beware – the lack of a clear direction either way could be a challenge. And a slowdown in markets could precede an autumn selloff. Now isn’t the time to make overly leveraged trades, and to exit them if you’ve been in them.

After this year’s “Liberation Day” slide lower, stocks may not be inclined for a massive pullback this summer – but it would be healthy for markets before a year-end rally.

~ Addison

P.S. With markets slowing down now, they’re at greater risk of breaking lower following their massive rally over the past few months.

As we learn more about tariffs and trade deals – not to mention earnings – over the coming weeks, the seasonal selloff period in September and October could be more volatile than usual. Another reason to avoid leverage, and enjoy other things in life besides the stock market for the next few months.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three.

Although the S&P 500 closed at all-time highs again yesterday, the markets have materially slowed down over the past week.

With a busy week for earnings ahead, there may be some more upside. But seasonally, August is a slow month for stocks, and September tends to see markets pull back.

Here’s a chart worth saving and referring back to – it’s a composite that shows the S&P 500’s average daily performance throughout any given year:

Turn Your Images On

The seasonal weak period for stocks has arrived.

Why do markets slow down in the lazy days of summer?

Historically, it’s when brokers used to take their vacations and motor off to the Hamptons.

Today, with algorithms running the show, it’s harder to say why.

But it’s a trend that has largely remained intact over the decades, and while past performance doesn’t show future performance, it’s a seasonal trend worth remembering.

If you’re not a trader, you can probably log out of your brokerage account for the next few months and not miss anything.

After this year’s “Liberation Day” slide lower, stocks may not be inclined for a massive pullback this summer – but it would be healthy for markets before a year-end rally.

~ Addison

P.S. With markets slowing down now, they’re at greater risk of breaking lower following their massive rally over the past few months.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict.

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!