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Swan Dive

Bubble Wrap

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

July 22, 2025 • 6 minute, 17 second read


Earnings Seasonmarket valuationPowellTrump

Bubble Wrap

Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time.

The Nasdaq logged its sixth consecutive record close.

The Dow, representing your contrarian blue-chip uncle at the family reunion, slipped slightly into the red.

Investors, still transfixed by Big Tech’s gravitational pull, appear eager to believe that earnings and AI will save the day — even as political crosswinds and global trade risks swirl like a Florida thunderstorm.

Earnings, regulation, tariffs, and bitcoin-fueled bravado are quietly rewriting the rules. For now.

If you took last week off, as we did, you missed a massive consolidation of AI dominance, a fresh crypto Wild West, and an epic skirmish between two of the world’s richest men and the government entities they can’t quite buy off.

📈 Big Tech Earnings: Up, Up… Then What?

Investors are betting big on Big Tech. Alphabet and Tesla are up to report earnings tomorrow.

It’s still early days for earnings season, but so far, 83% of S&P 500 companies that reported have beaten expectations. That’s good. But expectations are set in a world before Trump’s next tariff tantrum.

Global Markets Investor observes that the Nasdaq 100 has now traded above its 20-day moving average for 61 trading days straight. That’s the longest streak since the 2000 dotcom bubble, when the stretch lasted for 77 sessions ending February 1999.

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During the current streak, the Nasdaq 100 has rallied roughly 23%. In 1999, the index had already soared 50% at this point – suggesting that there’s more room to run if we’re to truly have an AI bubble to rival the dotcom boom.

Today, Wells Fargo’s Christopher Harvey sees another 11% gain ahead, citing stronger fundamentals than the dotcom days. “The S&P is not the same as it was 25 years ago,” he said.

True — but neither is the Federal Reserve, tariffs, or the global security order.

💥 Trump’s Fed Feud Escalates

Yesterday, Trump denied reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talked him out of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell over the weekend. Bessent returned the volley today by suggesting the Fed should be “put under review.”

Translation: The independence of the central bank is not a sacred cow — it’s a line item up for debate. And markets, however calm, are watching. Carefully.

Bessent, who may be at the top of Trump’s list to replace Powell in January, did not comment on the criminal probe Powell is now under for the renovation at the central bank that went way over budget.

🚘 Stellantis Gets Smashed by Tariffs

The manufacturer of Jeep reported a surprise $2.7 billion loss for the first half of the year, citing Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported auto parts as a direct hit. North American shipments dropped 25% year-over-year.

And yes, they’ll be raising prices.

Stellantis’ new CEO gave a blunt assessment: “Tariffs are inherently inflationary.” It’s a lesson the broader market may relearn — painfully — if trade negotiations fall apart…

🇪🇺 EU Readies ‘Kindness’ as a Weapon

The EU may deploy the Anti-Coercion Instrument if Trump follows through with his 30% tariff threats. It sounds soft, but it’s anything but: it could restrict U.S. tech access to EU contracts, limit investments, and impose fresh taxes on American firms.

Germany and Denmark, with massive exposure in autos and pharma, are already bracing. A retaliatory move could target $100 billion in goods, and don’t be surprised if red-state exports like bourbon and beef get the first slap.

🏦 JPMorgan Declares War on Fintechs

Jamie Dimon is done giving away data.

With Trump’s administration planning to repeal Biden’s open banking rules, JPMorgan now plans to charge fintechs like Plaid hundreds of millions in new fees to access customer data.

For Plaid, the annual tab could hit $300 million — more than 75% of last year’s revenue. For many upstarts, the data gold rush is over. Dimon plans to erect a tollbooth.

💰 Bitcoin’s King Buys the Dip (Again)

Strategy’s Michael Saylor now owns 3.05% of all circulating bitcoin, after spending another $740 million last week.

Formerly MicroStrategy, since adopting a business model of raising capital to buy bitcoin, its market cap has surged from around $1 billion to over $100 billion.

Trump Media & Technology Group joined the trend, buying $2 billion worth of bitcoin, sending shares up 3.11%.

In the fiat economy, that would be called “a helluva hedge.” We also can’t help but wonder if this is a way for President Trump to front-run the crypto legislation about to hit his desk…

🪙 Stablecoins Are Legal, But Are They Safe?

As the Genius and Stable Acts get reconciled in Congress, streams of the debate over the new legislation are leaking out.

Critics argue that if banks and fintechs are allowed to issue stablecoins pegged to the dollar, it could usher in a new era of “wildcat banking,” reminiscent of the 1860s, when states printed their own currencies and bank runs were a weekly hobby.

Maple Finance CEO Sidney Powell warned: “If every fintech can issue a stablecoin, we could see instability that undermines the very credibility these bills aim to create.”

Buyer beware. Regulation does not equal stability. And banks only appear stable until the taxpayers are on the hook for paying them off.

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If you can believe it, in 1835, the US Government actually distributed a surplus. Ha! (Source: The Atlantic)

Wildcat banking might be chaotic, but the idea remains a libertarian pipe dream. Andrew Jackson was the last (and only) president to pay off the U.S. national debt.

🎲 Polymarket’s $112M Play to Reenter the U.S.

Prediction market Polymarket plans to buy a U.S.-licensed derivatives exchange for $112 million to legally return stateside. It’s hired lobbyists, courted Trump allies, and ended two Biden-era investigations.

Kalshi and DraftKings should be worried. So should Vegas, as the city’s tourism numbers are already starting to sag as gambling moves online – and from gaming to sports betting, and now early betting on the 2028 presidential race.

🧳 UK’s Billionaire Exodus

Shipping mogul John Fredriksen is fleeing the UK for the UAE, selling his $300 million London manor. Henley & Partners reports Britain is losing high-net-worth individuals faster than any other rich country.

New York City voters should take heed before they go to the polls and elect Zohran Mamdani – although they likely won’t. London and the UK, in general, are a petri dish for high-tax socialist policies.

Capital, too, can vote… with its feet… and choose lower tax jurisdictions.

Meanwhile, markets are putting on a dazzling show.

But in this middle stage of Trump’s Great Reset, investors cheer new highs, and many retail buyers are unaware that the scaffolding — policy, trade, and trust — is, as yet, unsettled.

For the skeptic, it’s not only the rally you see that matters; the rubble underneath does as well. It’s worth paying attention while the sun shines and we enjoy a summer lull.

~ Addison

P.S.: On Thursday at 11 a.m. we’ll be hosting Grey Swan Live! with Shad Marquitz: “Rare Earth, Real Stakes.” We’ll dig into rare earths, uranium, EVs, and the U.S.–China tech build out.

The last time we had Shad on for a conversation, we dug much deeper into the natural resources and precious metals than what you get in the Grey Swan model portfolio – a market segment that’s showing signs of strength amid the current market slowdown.

It’s worth joining to get a sweeping overview of how the trade war and AI arms race are impacting the natural resource markets. See you there.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com


The Useless Metal that Rules the World

August 29, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

Gold has led people to do the most brilliant, the most brave, the most inventive, the most innovative and the most terrible things. ‘More men have been knocked off balance by gold than by love,’ runs the saying, usually attributed to Benjamin Disraeli. Where gold is concerned, emotion, not logic, prevails. Even in today’s markets it is a speculative asset whose price is driven by greed and fear, not by fundamental production numbers.

The Useless Metal that Rules the World
The Regrettable Repetition

August 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Fresh GDP data — the Commerce Department revised Q2 growth upward to 3.3% — fueling the rally. Investors cheered the “Goldilocks” read: strong enough to keep the music going, not hot enough (at least on paper) to derail hopes for a Fed pivot.

Even the oddball tickers joined in. Perhaps as fittingly as Lego, Build-A-Bear Workshop popped after beating earnings forecasts, on track for its fifth consecutive record year, thanks to digital expansion.

Neither represents a bellwether of industrial might — but in this market, even teddy bears roar.

The Regrettable Repetition
Gold’s Primary Trend Remains Intact

August 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In modern finance theory, only U.S. T-bills are considered risk-free assets.

Central banks are telling us they believe the real risk-free asset is gold.

Our Grey Swan research shows exactly how the dynamic between government finance and gold is playing out in real time.

Gold’s Primary Trend Remains Intact
Socialist Economics 101

August 28, 2025 • Lau Vegys

When we compare apples to apples—median home prices to median household income, both annualized—we get a much more nuanced picture. Housing has indeed become less affordable, with the price-to-income ratio climbing from roughly 3.5 in 1984 to about 5.3 today. In other words, the typical American family now has to work much harder to afford the same home.

But notice something crucial: the steepest increases coincide precisely with periods of massive government intervention. The post-dot-com bubble recovery fueled by Fed easy money after 2001. The housing bubble inflated by government-backed mortgages and Fannie Mae shenanigans. The recent explosion driven by unprecedented monetary stimulus and COVID lockdown policies.

Socialist Economics 101