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Ripple Effect

The Labor Department’s At It Again

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

July 21, 2025 • 1 minute, 21 second read


BLSLaborlabor data

The Labor Department’s At It Again

The BLS reported that the number of jobs reported for the 9 months ending December 2024 was likely overstated by ~800,000:

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The U.S. government overstated job creation in the last nine months of 2024.

This is the same BLS that printed a massive revision of over 800,000 jobs lower in August of last year, too.

Basic math puts the two revisions at 1.6 million jobs… that were reported but were never created.

That’s bad news – unless you were trying to make the economy look good for some reason in the back half of 2024. (The election, perhaps.)

The new massive revision also suggests that the labor market was in a worse spot when President Trump got back into the big chair.

And… it may even give some credence to Trump’s incessant abuse of Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. Not enough to cut rates to 1% overnight. But still…

As we observed in our July piece Trump’s Reality Distortion Field, trusting traditional economic data for forecasting rate cuts or an impending recession is a fool’s errand until we can trust the data under review again.

Whenever that may be.

~ Addison

P.S. Part of President Trump’s Great Reset plan is to increase private sector jobs in America. But that trend will also take time to play out. Tariffs play a role, as they make U.S.-based jobs more competitive. But as with all economic changes, it’s like steering a cruise ship, not a jetski – it’ll take time to play out.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


The Useless Metal that Rules the World

August 29, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

Gold has led people to do the most brilliant, the most brave, the most inventive, the most innovative and the most terrible things. ‘More men have been knocked off balance by gold than by love,’ runs the saying, usually attributed to Benjamin Disraeli. Where gold is concerned, emotion, not logic, prevails. Even in today’s markets it is a speculative asset whose price is driven by greed and fear, not by fundamental production numbers.

The Useless Metal that Rules the World
The Regrettable Repetition

August 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Fresh GDP data — the Commerce Department revised Q2 growth upward to 3.3% — fueling the rally. Investors cheered the “Goldilocks” read: strong enough to keep the music going, not hot enough (at least on paper) to derail hopes for a Fed pivot.

Even the oddball tickers joined in. Perhaps as fittingly as Lego, Build-A-Bear Workshop popped after beating earnings forecasts, on track for its fifth consecutive record year, thanks to digital expansion.

Neither represents a bellwether of industrial might — but in this market, even teddy bears roar.

The Regrettable Repetition
Gold’s Primary Trend Remains Intact

August 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In modern finance theory, only U.S. T-bills are considered risk-free assets.

Central banks are telling us they believe the real risk-free asset is gold.

Our Grey Swan research shows exactly how the dynamic between government finance and gold is playing out in real time.

Gold’s Primary Trend Remains Intact
Socialist Economics 101

August 28, 2025 • Lau Vegys

When we compare apples to apples—median home prices to median household income, both annualized—we get a much more nuanced picture. Housing has indeed become less affordable, with the price-to-income ratio climbing from roughly 3.5 in 1984 to about 5.3 today. In other words, the typical American family now has to work much harder to afford the same home.

But notice something crucial: the steepest increases coincide precisely with periods of massive government intervention. The post-dot-com bubble recovery fueled by Fed easy money after 2001. The housing bubble inflated by government-backed mortgages and Fannie Mae shenanigans. The recent explosion driven by unprecedented monetary stimulus and COVID lockdown policies.

Socialist Economics 101