The Labor Department’s At It Again

July 21, 2025 • 1 minute, 21 second read

The BLS reported that the number of jobs reported for the 9 months ending December 2024 was likely overstated by ~800,000:

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The U.S. government overstated job creation in the last nine months of 2024.

This is the same BLS that printed a massive revision of over 800,000 jobs lower in August of last year, too.

Basic math puts the two revisions at 1.6 million jobs… that were reported but were never created.

That’s bad news – unless you were trying to make the economy look good for some reason in the back half of 2024. (The election, perhaps.)

The new massive revision also suggests that the labor market was in a worse spot when President Trump got back into the big chair.

And… it may even give some credence to Trump’s incessant abuse of Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. Not enough to cut rates to 1% overnight. But still…

As we observed in our July piece Trump’s Reality Distortion Field, trusting traditional economic data for forecasting rate cuts or an impending recession is a fool’s errand until we can trust the data under review again.

Whenever that may be.

~ Addison

P.S. Part of President Trump’s Great Reset plan is to increase private sector jobs in America. But that trend will also take time to play out. Tariffs play a role, as they make U.S.-based jobs more competitive. But as with all economic changes, it’s like steering a cruise ship, not a jetski – it’ll take time to play out.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

The Small Cap Breakout

September 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The terrifying bull market broadened its base yesterday, driven by expectations of easy money.

Small caps tend to be more dependent on borrowing to finance operations than the cash-rich mega-cap players.

So it’s no surprise that as the Fed acquiesced to cutting interest rates Wednesday, small caps, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) broke out of a four-year range.

DASH and LOW Stock Have One Key Thing In Common

September 18, 2025 • Adam O'Dell

Sometimes, a compelling market trend flashes like a neon sign on the Vegas strip.

We’ve seen that a lot with mega trends like artificial intelligence (AI) over the last few years. Just last week, Oracle was rewarded with a 40% post-earnings pop in its stock price after a strong earnings outlook for its AI cloud business.

Other times, you’ve got to do a little work to find out what’s driving a stock’s price higher. And my “New Bulls” list each week is a great place to start.

DASH and LOW Stock Have One Key Thing In Common

The Carrot and The Stick

September 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Incentives grow markets. Regulation stunts their fragile bones.

The Fed’s rate cuts are carrots. Markets are feasting on them. Over in the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity, Portfolio Director Andrew Packer added a long trade in the commodity market – in a small-cap player, producing a commodity domestically.

As a cherry on top, it might be the next MP Materials or Intel and get explicit government backing, which could really cause shares to take off.

Trump’s threats to the Fed, or the FCC’s jawboning of broadcasters, are sticks. Investors must decide which matters more.

As one market veteran told The Wall Street Journal: “Cheaper money is a carrot. But the bigger question is whether trust in our institutions can hold. Without that, the carrots won’t matter.”

Nasdaq Enters Nosebleed Heights

September 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If you follow technical indicators, the Nasdaq — a broad measure of tech stocks — is now “extremely overbought”… a level only seen in 0.4% of its history.

That’s less than half a percent, and it is likely the precursor to a correction when traders decide to take profits.

Our advice, “panic now, avoid the rush” and rotate your tech into hard assets such as gold , bitcoin, and commodities in general.