The Labor Department’s At It Again

The BLS reported that the number of jobs reported for the 9 months ending December 2024 was likely overstated by ~800,000:

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The U.S. government overstated job creation in the last nine months of 2024.

This is the same BLS that printed a massive revision of over 800,000 jobs lower in August of last year, too.

Basic math puts the two revisions at 1.6 million jobs… that were reported but were never created.

That’s bad news – unless you were trying to make the economy look good for some reason in the back half of 2024. (The election, perhaps.)

The new massive revision also suggests that the labor market was in a worse spot when President Trump got back into the big chair.

And… it may even give some credence to Trump’s incessant abuse of Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. Not enough to cut rates to 1% overnight. But still…

As we observed in our July piece Trump’s Reality Distortion Field, trusting traditional economic data for forecasting rate cuts or an impending recession is a fool’s errand until we can trust the data under review again.

Whenever that may be.

~ Addison

P.S. Part of President Trump’s Great Reset plan is to increase private sector jobs in America. But that trend will also take time to play out. Tariffs play a role, as they make U.S.-based jobs more competitive. But as with all economic changes, it’s like steering a cruise ship, not a jetski – it’ll take time to play out.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

The BLS reported that the number of jobs reported for the 9 months ending December 2024 was likely overstated by ~800,000:

Turn Your Images On

The U.S. government overstated job creation in the last nine months of 2024.

This is the same BLS that printed a massive revision of over 800,000 jobs lower in August of last year, too.

Basic math puts the two revisions at 1.6 million jobs… that were reported but were never created.

That’s bad news – unless you were trying to make the economy look good for some reason in the back half of 2024. (The election, perhaps.)

The new massive revision also suggests that the labor market was in a worse spot when President Trump got back into the big chair.

And… it may even give some credence to Trump’s incessant abuse of Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. Not enough to cut rates to 1% overnight. But still…

Whenever that may be.

~ Addison

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Debts and deficits will eventually cause a crisis. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s effort to help bail out the Japanese Yen this week is entirely motivated by self-preservation. The contagion signal flashing in Japanese bonds since late ‘25 is infecting the BOJ, which may be forced to sell U.S. Treasurys to stabilize its own currency.

The copper price is no doubt benefiting from inflation driven by money printing. But the doc don’t lie. Copper’s new all-time highs, while gold and silver still languish, are a sign the AI growth story is also that of the global economy itself.

Many miners were profitable with gold around $2,000 and silver near $50. At sustained prices closer to $4,000 gold and $60 silver, the arithmetic changes dramatically.

The stock market is getting an unexpected boost to kick off August, bucking the historically weak summer session for the U.S. stock market.

What’s happening? The Bank of Japan and the U.S. Treasury are making a coordinated effort to support Japanese yen; a move last attempted nearly 30 years in the height of the Asian Financial contagion (1998).

Many miners were profitable with gold around $2,000 and silver near $50. At sustained prices closer to $4,000 gold and $60 silver, the arithmetic changes dramatically.

The stock market is getting an unexpected boost to kick off August, bucking the historically weak summer session for the U.S. stock market.