“Violence, even well-intentioned, always rebounds upon oneself.”
–Lao-Tzu
January 2, 2025 — Well, that didn’t take long. We published Grey Swan Event #1: Return of American Political Violence at 2 p.m. ET on December 31, 2024.
Less than 15 hours later, the first knucklehead of the year, Army veteran Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, a home-grown terrorist from Houston, Texas, drove his Ford F-10 Lightning into a crowd of New Year’s revelers on New Orleans’ famed Bourbon Street.
Jabbar killed 15 people with the pickup truck and then got into a shoot-out with New Orleans police, wounding two officers.
Early reports indicate the assailant had some morbid fascination with ISIS. It’s too early to tell if that’s material to the incident or not. Video evidence on the Internet shows the dumbass was flying an ISIS flag from the back of his truck when he committed the crime.
Six hours later, a second as yet unidentified knucklehead exploded a Tesla Cybertruck in front of the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, killing himself and injuring seven other people minding their own business nearby.
Law enforcement told the media that the Cybertruck was rented to Matthew Alan Livelsberger, 37, an active-duty U.S. Army Special Forces intelligence sergeant serving in Germany who was on leave in Colorado at the time of the incident.
The two acts of domestic violence are not currently thought to be connected. But again, it’s probably early to tell on that account, too.
The Cybertruck, part of Elon Musk’s brand image, raging on fire in front of a Trump property is already the first iconic image of 2025.
Source: Reddit
Like we said, that didn’t take long.
Here’s a bonus Grey Swan event that you might think is improbable but whose likelihood just gained a few determinant odds for the year: The U.S. law enforcement response will be strict and targeted to U.S. citizens. The long-feared American Police State has reached headline status in mainstream culture.
That’s not a Grey Swan event we would ever want to predict, much less see or experience. But, if ever Vonnegut’s expression “so it goes” is appropriate, it’s how we begin the year 2025.
To be clearer, a “law and order” response will likely swing the pendulum to the opposite extreme, inviting further attacks and an ever more strident police response, replete with a further erosion of civil liberties.
How did we get here? We look forward to your own ideas on these events. And prime the pump with a thoughtful response we received from Guillermo, a Grey Swan member, and American citizen, currently raising his daughter in the D0minican Republic.
What, in part, is the cause of America’s declining sense of civic duty and rising violent tribalism? Guillermo gives a specific response from his own perspective below. ~ Addison
The Decline of America’s Civil Institutions
Guillermo Garcia, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
I’ve just read your email regarding what is happening in American society. Your article was a very good read in these difficult times the world is living. I’m an American citizen by birth and have been a lover of the USA ever since my parents sent me to a boarding Catholic high school from 1974 until 1978 in Maryland. That’s where I learned why and how the USA had become the greatest country in the world.
For years, I have been uncomfortably aware of the issues you describe. It is quite an experience to have known the States in high school in the ’70s and to have seen the decline of American society, little by little (which may be the worst way possible). After high school, I spent most of my adult life living overseas in the Dominican Republic, in Santo Domingo and yet, I never stopped reading the Wall Street Journal, among other news sources.
In 2013, I enrolled in the online University of Phoenix and was very surprised when I was told to read and learn about strange things, such as a textbook on how to be “politically correct.” Being a history lover with hundreds of history books under my belt, I remember quite well when I started feeling dismay for American society.
My daughter, who was born in the year 2000, went to an American school in Santo Domingo for her entire K-12 education. I saw how the “common core” education, introduced by Barack Obama for all American students in 2009, reminded me of books like “1984” and “Animal Farm,” by George Orwell.
I remember several instances of attempts to indoctrinate her, but I will only mention two here: once she told me in sixth grade that she had seen a movie about Hitler; I asked her what class she was in when they showed the movie to her; she said it was in English class. So I told her about Hitler and why it was a historical topic with nothing to do with the English language; I asked her if she agreed; she said, “Yes, you’re right,” feeling confused about the reason for seeing the movie; so I explained to her what indoctrination was and how the Obama administration was doing it with her generation.
The second was in her senior year in high school, when a teacher asked the entire class to raise their hands regarding their agreement with issues like abortion, prostitution, Etc… When she was the only one to answer against two of the “politically correct” answers, the teacher literally berated her in front of the entire class. She called me in tears. Just by coincidence, two weeks later was the day for us to have appointments with teachers, during a visit all parents would make to the school. So two weeks later I, asked the teacher about it, alone in his classroom with my wife. I minced no words, including about his job security, and the guy got scared. When we left she laughed and told me his hands had been trembling.
The present is a difficult time for the USA. It’s the result of a very expensive campaign by members of the World Economic Forum, an elite group of European and American economic, political and academic elites, founded by Klaus Shwab in 1973. They have been meeting and talking for decades; people who literally don’t know what to do with all the money they have. Just imagine!
On November 5, 2024, the USA came very close to destroying itself. I was in Florida and breathed very deeply when the end of the American experiment didn’t come. But it was too close for comfort. I had given more money than I should have to the Republican Party, but what the heck! It felt good, and maybe, just maybe, it made a difference. We are fighting on the same side!
Please receive my best regards Addison; from your fellow American, ~ Guillermo Garcia
Regards,
Addison Wiggin,
Grey Swan
P.S. For the record, Guillermo’s response is the exact kind of thoughtful, experience-based reply we relish. This year, as we develop the fraternity, we expect to deploy a community chat feature to the Grey Swan website.
If you’re in favor of a member-driven community app, say “aye” and send your own comments on the top Grey Swan events of 2025 here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com