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Swan Dive

Stack Coins and Cash to Sidestep the Private Credit Crunch

Loading ...Andrew Packer

February 27, 2026 • 6 minute, 53 second read


credit spreadsprivate creditRare coins

Stack Coins and Cash to Sidestep the Private Credit Crunch

I’m not the jealous type…

But today, Addison tours the Rarcoa facility in Chicago, seeing the company’s vaults and some incredible rare coins along the way. 

I’m looking forward to his presentation this afternoon, albeit from the “comfort” of my office.

Addison has more details in today’s P.S., and you can click here to watch it live with me at 2 p.m. ET.

While I’m not there in person, I was able to tour a similar facility back in 2009, for the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS), out in Irvine, California. 

It’s a bit surreal… you go from what looks like a drab industrial/office space on the outside, into a building flanked with layers of security and massive vault doors, all surrounded by professionals with a quiet reverence for the tremendous task at hand.

I suspect Rarcoa will offer the same experience and vibe of a secure government facility – and this time, we can experience it with a camera crew without having to brave the winter weather and fly to Chicago.

There’s just something about collectibles. Perhaps it’s because you’re holding something tangible in your hand, not just a share of a company. I certainly get a lot of joy looking through my coin collection or researching prices on pieces I want to acquire someday. 

Collectibles had a moment in the sun in 2021 and 2022, as investors were looking for an inflation hedge. The space has cooled off a bit, making now an optimal time to consider investing in collectibles.

While today’s focus – and my personal interest – is in rare coins – you may be more interested in stamps, art, antiques, even vintage cars. In the collectible space, there’s something for everyone. That’s part of the joy.

More importantly, with collectibles out of favor, it may be a good asset to rotate some of your wealth into.

That’s because the hits just keep coming for traditional financial markets…

💳 Private Credit Continues to Crunch

Market Financial Solutions has gone bust. The privately-held UK-based mortgage finance firm is insolvent, according to regulators.

Jefferies, Wells Fargo, and Apollo Group were hit in the news, due to their exposure.

This is another sign of trouble in the credit markets, particularly private credit.

I’ll be fair –  private credit has outperformed the stock market slightly over the past 15 years.

But a lot of that occurred because they were the only way for businesses to borrow capital after the Great Financial Crisis. Traditional banks stopped lending to businesses, focusing on government-backed guaranteed loans or putting their excess capital on hold with the Fed, where they could earn a risk-free return.

Times have changed. Like any success, it’s brought more attention and capital into the mix. The past few years have seen some deal-chasing. And because private credit is, well, private, good luck knowing exact loan terms.

I’ve been warning about private credit since September 2024. And a follow-up back in November, following the collapse of First Brands.

Incidentally, Jefferies was also a holder of First Brands debt. Maybe their due diligence officers had prior experience at Lehman Brothers?

Look, it’s not just that deal quality is down as volume has exploded. It’s that we’re seeing blowups now – right at a time when there’s a big push to make private credit a part of your 401(k) and retirement plan.

I’m sure most of the ecosystem is fine. Bad loans can and do happen to any lender.

But when private credit companies like Blue Owl are spending their time defending their record on LinkedIn rather than acknowledging problems and showcasing how they’re fixing it, it doesn’t pass the smell test.

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A promoted post for Blue Owl Capital, which may be at the epicenter of a private credit blowup.

Well, at least someone is paying for LinkedIn.


💰Cash Is Still King
 

There’s a reason I hammered the theme of cash in yesterday’s Swan Dive. Cash isn’t exciting. But it keeps you out of trouble.

There may be a time when private credit hits a full-blown meltdown and you can buy quality names for fifty cents on the dollar. That’s the time to put some cash to work in the space, not when Wall Street wants you to buy.

I’ve found that my investment returns generally do well because I keep plenty of cash on hand, and am always looking for values.

I do a few other things too. 

One tool comes from the options market: selling covered calls on stocks that I own. This works best with a stock you want to hold, even if you expect shares to be choppy for a few months.

If you’re already using tools like covered calls in your portfolio, now’s a great time to capture extra income given the market’s sideways grind, tech selloff, and weakness in the private credit market. 

But you can do more. In today’s choppy markets, I’ve been using an options tool called credit spreads to bring in some extra cash.

For instance, this hit my inbox this morning:

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It’s a bear call spread. It’s a type of options trade where multiple contracts are executed simultaneously. 

For this trade, I expected the market to stay under a certain level, in this case, 7,155 on the S&P 500. 

I entered into this spread three weeks back for about $6.50, or $650 per contract. Today, it expires at zero (unless the market decides to kick off that Most Terrifying Bull after all).

Tools like credit spreads offer an additional advantage over covered calls – you can use them daily, if you want to, allowing you to profit from market moves, not just the stocks in your personal portfolio.

I’ve been experimenting with these tools for about four years now, and the results have helped boost my total portfolio – largely by loading it with cash. 

It’s a valuable tool, and as you can see with my expiring trade today, it’s got a lot of flexibility, not just for day trading. But done right, it can mean hundreds of dollars – potentially per day – into your pocket. That could do a lot to provide financial freedom.

I’ve been invited to share this concept at MoneyShow’s Master Symposium in Hollywood, Florida, April 8-11. If you’re looking for a break from winter… and to get new investment ideas … this is the place to be.


~ Andrew

P.S. from Addison: I held the original coin Ben Franklin designed and had minted in France yesterday. Very cool. 

At the time, there was no machinery in the colonies that could mint the coins Franklin wanted to make. He had to make several journeys across the Atlantic to France, where they used the government mint to make them.

The goddess on the obverse side represents a triumphant France protecting the infant colonies from the great British lion. 

The modern replica was minted to commemorate the U.S.’s 250th Anniversary during the coin toss at the Super Bowl.

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A replica of the Libertas Americana, designed by Ben Franklin. (Source: Highland Mint)

The original remains unblemished.

I held coins minted by Hadrian, Nero and Augustus. During the Empire period, each new Caesar would melt all the previous coinage to be reissued with his own face. The coins were the only way Roman citizens knew what their Emperor looked like.

That’s just a quick preview of my time at Rarcoa…

The coins we’ll be examining this afternoon carry their own stories. The 2025 Eagle Privy Silver Eagle graded NGC MS70 — “One of the First 50,000” — represents modern scarcity layered atop a four-decade American Silver Eagle legacy. 

More than 640 million Silver Eagles have been minted since 1986, yet perfect-grade, low-population privy issues form a distinct tier within that ocean of metal. 

The Proof Silver Eagles honoring the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps, graded PF70 with First Day of Issue pedigree and labels signed by former U.S. Mint engraver Michael Gaudioso, blend craftsmanship, military heritage, and collector demand. 



Please join us as we tour the vault and look at these rare coins. The live event will air here today, February 27, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PST. 


Beware Stocks In March

February 27, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

If the S&P 500 closes over 6,910 today, the index will be up for February and continue its strong performance since last April.

But, looking at the monthly relative strength index (RSI), the market is flashing an overbought signal.

Beware Stocks In March
Nvidia’s Earnings Can’t Beat Seasonality

February 26, 2026 • Andrew Packer

Nvidia’s selloff isn’t unexpected. It reports late in earnings season. Most of its customers have already reported how many chips they’ve bought or plan to buy.

Most of those big-tech names sold off after their earnings in recent weeks, too. But we’re seeing signs of a slowdown, of sorts.

Companies like Microsoft and Apple are now increasing their AI spend so much that they’re slowing their spending on other priorities.

Nvidia’s Earnings Can’t Beat Seasonality
Mind the Death Jaws

February 26, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

For AI-linked companies — Nvidia foremost among them —  investor expectations continue to rise along with their valuations. At this point, even billions in profit are not enough.

Like the fiber optic spending plans that dominated the 1990s at the height of the dotcom bubble, AI spending is squeezing the cash flows for the S&P 500’s biggest companies.

Mind the Death Jaws
Gold’s Relentless Bid

February 25, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

China’s gold reserves have more than tripled since 2022, while the U.S. Treasury holdings have declined. The metal is rising as central banks’ sovereign bond exposure falls globally.

Capital continues to be repositioned between a Western debt-based system and an Eastern resource-based accumulation.

Gold’s Relentless Bid