The Middle East’s 11-Year Cycle

Markets go through many Grey Swan cycles – moves that are rare, but forecastable.

Events unfolding in the Middle East fit a pattern… an 11-year cycle tied to sunspot activity:

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Spikes in the sun’s solar activity tend to occur with rising tensions in the Middle East. (Source: Brian Roemmelle via X)

Solar activity was charted by Soviet scientist Alexander Chizhevsky, who researched sunspots dating back to 500 A.D.

Chizhevsky’s research showed that sunspot activity was the leading cause of the 1917 Revolution, not the work of Lenin, Trotsky, and crew.

The ungrateful Soviets threw him in the gulag for his efforts.

Conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, then Libya and Syria, fit Chizhevsky’s solar flare-up pulse. This time around, Iran gets the sub’s glare.

The assets we’ve been recommending are well-positioned for a sustained conflict: Gold is back over $5,400; oil, reacting to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, added to this month’s anticipatory gains, is up another 8% this morning to $73.

~ Addison

P.S. Thank you if you joined us on Friday for a special Grey Swan Live! from inside the Rarcoa Vault in Chicago. The reserved Silver Eagle set we had reserved was quite popular.

Owner Wayde Mills gave us a display and tour of coins never on view for the public. And showed us behind the scenes how rare coins as an asset class offers a unique way to protect your wealth – and they carry the added value of rarity, mint, condition and historical significance.

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Wayde Milas gave us nearly two hours of time to explore some of the great coins of history, some new products that Rarcoa is developing, and a special opportunity for Grey Swan members: a 2025 Eagle Privy Silver Eagle graded NGC MS70 — from the first group of 50,000 pristine minted coins — which he offered to Grey Swan members at a wholesale discount.

Markets go through many Grey Swan cycles – moves that are rare, but forecastable.

Events unfolding in the Middle East fit a pattern… an 11-year cycle tied to sunspot activity:

Turn Your Images On

Spikes in the sun’s solar activity tend to occur with rising tensions in the Middle East. (Source: Brian Roemmelle via X)

Solar activity was charted by Soviet scientist Alexander Chizhevsky, who researched sunspots dating back to 500 A.D.

Chizhevsky’s research showed that sunspot activity was the leading cause of the 1917 Revolution, not the work of Lenin, Trotsky, and crew.

The ungrateful Soviets threw him in the gulag for his efforts.

Conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, then Libya and Syria, fit Chizhevsky’s solar flare-up pulse. This time around, Iran gets the sub’s glare.

~ Addison

P.S. Thank you if you joined us on Friday for a special Grey Swan Live! from inside the Rarcoa Vault in Chicago. The reserved Silver Eagle set we had reserved was quite popular.

Turn Your Images On

Oil prices opened significantly higher in overnight trading, following a weekend of news about shutdowns in Saudi Arabia and the bombing of Iranian oil infrastructure.

Through the first 41 trading days of 2026, the S&P 500 traded within a 2.7% range — the narrowest start to any year since 1928. The first 41 days of 2008 spanned roughly 35%. In 2020, the range ran near 15%. Even the placid 1950s never opened this tight…

Since the Iran attack began, global markets have been chaotic. Despite some wild intraday swings this week, the U.S. stock market has held up well. When bombs go flying, capital moves from frontier markets to safer shores. And even though the U.S. has been the one to aggressively move against Iran, capital that was going to foreign markets has shifted back to New York.

Ever since the re-election of Trump, the blue tribe has been searching for another event it could use to repeat its success with BLM. They thought they had finally found it with ICE (its enforcement actions produce numerous excesses it could exploit).

Oil prices opened significantly higher in overnight trading, following a weekend of news about shutdowns in Saudi Arabia and the bombing of Iranian oil infrastructure.