Beware Stocks In March

If the S&P 500 closes over 6,910 today, the index will be up for February and continue its strong performance since last April.

But, looking at the monthly relative strength index (RSI), the market is flashing an overbought signal:

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When the market gets overbought on a monthly basis, healthy corrections occur. (Source: Mr_Derivatives via X)

“Relative strength is a pretty good, albeit imprecise data point,” notes our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer. “When the market as a whole is overbought or oversold on an RSI basis, however, it’s a clearer signal than in individual stocks.”

Many new stocks, particularly in the energy and consumer goods are hitting 52-week highs. But software (SaaS) is still getting sold off in crisis mode.

A new all time high in March is unlikely.

In the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity, we’ve added in protection against market downside with a put option on SPY.

Best to be wary with these trends in place.

~ Addison

P.S. Today’s the day! Grey Swan Live! this week will be coming to you live from inside the Rarcoa Vault in Chicago.

Our interest: Rare coins offer a unique way to protect your wealth with precious metals – and they carry the added value of rarity, mint, condition and historical significance.

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Please join us while we visit with family founder, Wayde Milas, inside the Rarcoa vault to check out the 2025 Eagle Privy Silver Eagle graded NGC MS70 from the first group of 50,000 pristine minted coins. Brand new sets will be available to attendees of the Zoom at a steeply discounted event price.

If the S&P 500 closes over 6,910 today, the index will be up for February and continue its strong performance since last April.

But, looking at the monthly relative strength index (RSI), the market is flashing an overbought signal:

Turn Your Images On

When the market gets overbought on a monthly basis, healthy corrections occur. (Source: Mr_Derivatives via X)

Many new stocks, particularly in the energy and consumer goods are hitting 52-week highs. But software (SaaS) is still getting sold off in crisis mode.

A new all time high in March is unlikely.

In the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity, we’ve added in protection against market downside with a put option on SPY.

Best to be wary with these trends in place.

~ Addison

P.S. Today’s the day! Grey Swan Live! this week will be coming to you live from inside the Rarcoa Vault in Chicago.

Our interest: Rare coins offer a unique way to protect your wealth with precious metals – and they carry the added value of rarity, mint, condition and historical significance.

Turn Your Images On

Debts and deficits will eventually cause a crisis. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s effort to help bail out the Japanese Yen this week is entirely motivated by self-preservation. The contagion signal flashing in Japanese bonds since late ‘25 is infecting the BOJ, which may be forced to sell U.S. Treasurys to stabilize its own currency.

The copper price is no doubt benefiting from inflation driven by money printing. But the doc don’t lie. Copper’s new all-time highs, while gold and silver still languish, are a sign the AI growth story is also that of the global economy itself.

Many miners were profitable with gold around $2,000 and silver near $50. At sustained prices closer to $4,000 gold and $60 silver, the arithmetic changes dramatically.

The stock market is getting an unexpected boost to kick off August, bucking the historically weak summer session for the U.S. stock market.

What’s happening? The Bank of Japan and the U.S. Treasury are making a coordinated effort to support Japanese yen; a move last attempted nearly 30 years in the height of the Asian Financial contagion (1998).

Many miners were profitable with gold around $2,000 and silver near $50. At sustained prices closer to $4,000 gold and $60 silver, the arithmetic changes dramatically.

The stock market is getting an unexpected boost to kick off August, bucking the historically weak summer session for the U.S. stock market.