Swan Dive
đź’Ł War Games, Constitutional Amnesia, and a Robotaxi Named Regret
June 23, 2025 • 6 minute, 19 second read
 “Midnight Hammer” Lands—and So Do the Markets
 The United States totally “obliterated” Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility in the early evening on Saturday. At least that’s what the Pentagon’s PowerPoint might quote the president as saying.
In a 37-hour operation dubbed Midnight Hammer — because why not make geopolitics sound like an old-school Schwarzenegger flick — President Trump ordered airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites.
Late yesterday, Trump felt inclined to defend his use of the 5-syllable word on Truth Social:
Independent verification to confirm his definition will take weeks.
In the meantime, Iran’s highly enriched uranium — the stuff we’re supposedly bombing to bits — hasn’t been seen by international authorities for over a week.
The market reaction? Meh. Expected.
Oil prices spiked briefly, then pulled back. Stock futures dipped, then stabilized. The dollar rallied as investors did what they always do in a crisis: flee to the very currency that printed itself into this mess.
Any real tension lies in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Parliament has already voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. They’re apparently awaiting the final approval from Ali Khamenei, the cleric who’s been leading the Islamic Republic since 1989.
The closure would choke 20% of the world’s oil supply – largely going to countries like China, not the U.S. Nevertheless, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on CBS’ Face The Nation that the move would be “suicidal.” Which is comforting.
Tankers are rerouting. Some airlines have suspended flights.
Elon’s Next Move Could Turn Him
Into America’s Biggest “Super Villain?”
Elon Musk has already taken public shots at Trump…
But what he’s planning next could hit a lot harder.
Not just for Trump…
But for every American…
So much so that Elon’s biggest supporters could soon call him a “traitor.”
Click here to see what’s coming.
 Constitutional Bypass Lane
 Under the U.S. Constitution — still technically in effect — Congress declares war. The War Powers Act reinforced that. But this is 2025, and apparently, Article I is just a speed bump on the road to re-election.
Trump didn’t get Congressional authorization. There was no national emergency. Just a unilateral strike cheered on by party leadership and pundits who’ve mistaken Twitter and Truth Social for a war room.
If partisanship is your thing, here’s a list of airstrikes conducted by Democratic presidents without prior Congressional approval:
President Biden:
- Yemen: Strikes against the Houthi militia were ordered without Congressional permission. Lawmakers criticized this decision.
- Iraq and Syria: Strikes targeted Iranian-backed militia groups responsible for attacks on U.S. personnel.
President Obama:
- Libya: A NATO bombing campaign was led without a Congressional vote or new authorization.
- Drone Warfare: The drone program saw a significant expansion, with 563 strikes during the Obama years, largely in Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen.
- Syria: Initially, the President indicated the constitutional power to order limited military strikes without Congressional approval. Approval from Congress was later sought after initial reluctance.
President Clinton:
- Bosnia and Kosovo: Airstrikes were ordered in these regions without prior Congressional authorization. The NATO campaign in Kosovo lasted 78 days, exceeding the 60-day limit specified in the War Powers Act for unauthorized operations.
- Sudan and Afghanistan: Missile strikes were ordered against suspected terrorist targets in these countries.
Only a few Congressional dissenters remain. The poster child for the effort? Rep. Thomas Massie (R–KY), who also voted against the “Big Beautiful Bill” (because it didn’t cut spending).
Massie dared to remind his own constituents that war-making is not a one-man show. Trump responded by roasting him online. To which Massie responded on X:
 Polymarket’s $1.3 Million Whale Bet
Polymarket, the decentralized betting exchange, is having a moment. One whale — likely not your neighbor’s nephew — wagered $400,000 that the U.S. would strike Iran by June 22. The bet hit. The profit? $1.3 million.
Welcome to the new normal: a world where high-frequency traders and geopolitical gamblers operate on the same social platforms. The lines between markets, news, and war are dissolving — algorithmically, in real-time.
 Tesla’s $4.20 Robotaxis and the Price of Progress
 Tesla’s long-awaited robotaxi service launched in Austin this weekend. Fares: $4.20. Riders: influencers. Routes: geofenced and supervised.
Elon promised unsupervised autonomy; what we got is a safety monitor in the passenger seat who won’t talk to you.
Still, the initial reviews are in —“smooth,” “great,” “normal”— which is probably all you can hope for when being chauffeured by an operating system.
Uber EV drivers, meanwhile, are struggling to find chargers. Only a third have home access. In Europe, it’s even worse. But don’t worry — Uber’s rolling out a city planner tool. Plug placement now comes with predictive analytics.
 Megadeal Watch: Bank of New York Mellon Eyes Northern Trust
 Two of the country’s oldest financial firms may merge. Bank of New York Mellon has approached Northern Trust in what could be a blockbuster custodial megadeal.
It’s not a done deal yet, but the quiet giants of finance are starting to consolidate — just as interest rates flatten and recession whispers get louder.
This is an interesting development, a long time in the making. It occurs just as the GENIUS Act has been passed, obviating the need for commercial banking and opening up a new, regulatory-free “wildcatter” era in stablecoins and tethered money.
As we mentioned last week, we’re digging deep on the stablecoin front, including new guests on Grey Swan Live! to help us break down the most significant monetary innovation since Bretton Woods post-World War II. Stay tuned…
 Fred Smith, FedEx Founder, Dies at 80
 A Marine, a gambler, and a logistics pioneer — Fred Smith was all three. His “hub and spokes” model changed global shipping.
In 1973, facing bankruptcy, he famously bet FedEx’s last $5,000 on blackjack. He won $27,000. That bought enough time to raise more capital and change the world.
Moral of the story: Sometimes, desperation fuels innovation. Other times, it leads to robotaxis and nuclear standoffs.
 The Week Ahead: Powell on the Hot Seat
 Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect fireworks. Trump’s base wants rate cuts, but Powell just said, “not yet.”
Friday brings the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge — PCE. Housing data is coming. And in the background, markets are quietly recalibrating.
Polymarket bettors aren’t the only ones pricing in uncertainty. Analysts are eyeing Hormuz. Tariff data is just now filtering down into the government’s calculations.
 Also This Week…
President Trump will head to the Netherlands to bully the U.S.’s erstwhile partners at the NATO Summit. And yes… Wednesday is Leon Day — Noel spelled backwards – halfway to Christmas.
And lest we be remiss: happy belated birthday to American money.
Founded two hundred fifty years ago yesterday, in an effort to fight its first official war, the Continental Congress printed $2 million to fund George Washington’s army — launching a grand experiment in paper promises that we’re still trying to balance today.
The original currency, dubbed the Continental, not only failed, but it spawned the phrase “Not worth a Continental.” Hence, the Founding Fathers including gold and silver monetary provisions in the Constitution – provisions which today are held just as sacred as the President’s ability to declare war.
~ Addison
p.s. Grey Swan Live! this Thursday, June 26 at 11 a.m. ET. We’ll look at all the latest events swirling around markets right now, plus a rousing discussion on the GENIUS Act — how stablecoins may become a backdoor lifeline for the U.S. Treasury. You’ll want to hear this one.
Your thoughts? Please send them here:Â addison@greyswanfraternity.com
