They’re calling it a bull market. But it might just be bull…
The S&P 500 is up more than 20% from its post-Liberation Day lows in April. Oracle delivered a blowout quarter thanks to a feeding frenzy for its AI cloud services, helping investors push the S&P higher yesterday.
Still something’s not right…
There is, of course, the LA riots, now spreading over 1,000 communities nationwide. And after the market close, Israel’s surprise attack of missiles and drones at nuclear facilities, top political leaders and scientists in Iran.
But that’s not it.
Institutional investors were already making for the exits, quietly. The pros sold $4.2 billion of stock into the rally just last week. The retail crowd, eyes wide and arms full of index funds, continues buying at a record pace.
Some key research outfits we pay attention to – Kobiessi, Katusa, Global Markets, Charlie Bilello – are all feeling the same unease we are.
Israel Lights the Match
About last night. We were still at our desk, mulling over a new trading strategy with some researchers, when this chart popped up on X:
Oil going up in a straight line, jumping 13%, on news of the attack.
In the pre-dawn hours, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, striking more than 100 targets across Iran — nuclear facilities, military compounds, and, more pointedly, people.
Among the dead: three top Iranian generals and at least two nuclear scientists. Netanyahu declared the mission a blow to “the heart of Iran’s ballistic missile program.”
Ayatollah Khamenei called it a “declaration of war.” Iran responded with more than 100 drones, raising the specter of all-out regional escalation.
President Trump acknowledged on social media that he had foreknowledge of the operation and expressed hope that “nuclear diplomacy could still resume.” That hope dimmed when Iran canceled all upcoming talks.
JP Morgan had already issued a warning yesterday that oil could spike to $120 from a Middle Eastern conflict, reigniting inflation and putting rate cuts talks on ice, again.
If Trump’s vision was to stabilize America’s place in the world through strength and economic leverage, the Israeli strike has reminded him — and the rest of us — that firepower has a nasty habit of lighting unintended fuses.
What Trump Just Triggered Could Ruin Millions of Retirements
There’s a secret so powerful it could soon wipe as much as $10 trillion from the stock markets…
And lead to civil unrest on a scale we have not seen since the 1960s.
Something that almost no one — not the mainstream media, not Wall Street, not even Trump’s closest allies — is willing to talk about.
Because it explains what’s really happening beneath the surface of the economy…
One expert is willing to expose this secret… Click here now.
A Rising Wedge in the Dark
The Nasdaq 100 reached 22,000 and then stopped cold. For the technicians, the chart is drawing a rising wedge — one of those polite-sounding terms that usually precedes a not-so-polite market reversal.
The MACD and RSI indicators are diverging, flashing warnings. It’s the financial equivalent of a crack forming in a dam. But instead of reinforcing the structure, retail investors are throwing confetti at it.
Tony Sycamore at IG Markets commented to CNBC: “Markets aren’t in the mood to wait and find out.”
The momentum that once lifted markets is now inertia. And smart money — if that means anything anymore — is slipping out the side door, even if markets may have one last push higher into the summer ahead of them.
ICE in the Fields and Kitchens
As we’d anticipated in our Grey Swan forecasts for 2025, political violence has returned. And will continue well through the summer, our John Robb forecasted yesterday on Grey Swan Live!
The riots in Los Angeles have metastasized. What started as localized protests over immigration enforcement has spilled into over 1,000 communities nationwide. Workplace raids, detentions, and walkouts have sent a chill through industries already short on help.
Farmers are warning of crop losses. Smithfield Foods is reporting production delays. Doordash is begging for drivers.
And now retailers — from Coca-Cola to Walmart — are quietly noting a decline in Hispanic consumer traffic. The fear is palpable. The backlash, organized.
Trump’s “very aggressive” immigration strategy was supposed to restore law and order. What it’s producing instead is logistical chaos.
There’s something eerie about the president admitting his policy is harming agriculture and hospitality… while continuing to double down on enforcement.
The president says he’s willing to roll back ICE raids on farm workers and kitchen assistants because it’s “bad for business.”
He’s also afraid of losing the “mandate” he has been asserting the election gave him over the border and tariff negotiations.
The Great Spacewalk Exit
DOGE meets NASA. The proposed 2026 budget slashes science funding by half, killing 40 missions and reducing the agency’s budget to pre-1961 levels — adjusted for inflation.
Mars? Off the table. Climate monitoring? Canceled.
But SpaceX? Thriving. While public exploration shrinks, private ambition expands. The Trump-Musk social media tiff last week effectively got the government out of Elon’s business and gave him back the stars.
The Office is Officially Over
In another shocking detail of the post-pandemic pre-AI economy, nationwide office vacancies just hit a record 20.4%.
Moody’s says 24% vacancies are coming next year.
Commercial real estate has lost 40% of its value over the last three years. A quiet crisis in the making – still behind the scenes of stock markets, back near all-time highs.
The Midas Touch Returns
Yesterday, gold surpassed the euro as the second-largest reserve asset on the planet. It now makes up 20% of global central bank reserves.
Year to date, it’s up 29%, breaking records 24 times. JPMorgan projects $3,675 by December. $4,000 by next spring. And that was before Israel’s latest attack against Iran.
What’s more telling? Even bond market veterans — the same ones who once called gold a “barbarous relic” — are now saying it’s “no longer just for lunatic survivalists.”
Turns out, when trust evaporates from governments, banks, and global trade agreements, it condenses into shiny metal.
Toys That Talk Back
Mattel’s new partnership with OpenAI is pushing the limits of childhood. Soon, your kid’s Magic 8 Ball might ask about your 401(k).
Mattel insists the toys will be “age-appropriate.” Then again, we used to think the same about the economy.
Maybe the real reason the market is all out… and striving for a way to get back into… whack, is that today is 2025’s only Friday the 13th, an unlucky marker in a year that feels increasingly held together by retail hope, duct tape, and dollar demise.
President Trump has long imagined himself the hero of America’s Great Reset — rebuilding U.S. power with low taxes, aggressive trade wins, and unapologetic muscle.
And to be fair, despite the headlines today, the Great Reset narrative still holds. We’re somewhere in the smoldering cinders of the Great Fire. For details on the positive interpretation of how we see Trump’s policies unfolding don’t miss this special video presentation: The Great Reset.
But before you click, you might also want to order a pizza, like folks at the Pentagon did at a record pace, curiously, at a minute before 7 p.m. last night:
Cheers,
~ Addison
P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! is posted in our video archives for paid-up members. John Robb walked Fraternity members through a number of Grey Swan events – including the use of stealthy drone strikes by Ukraine against Russia – a move that Israel copied in their attack against Iranian facilities last night.
John’s worldview of the world as a series of networks and tribes also helps explain the current riots and how that trend can play out in the months ahead.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. John sees tremendous opportunities as the AI story plays out – and the more important role that AI and other technologies can play with payload prices dropping and Elon pushes humans into space.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
