Worst. Start. Ever.

Barring the mother of all stock market rallies today and tomorrow, the S&P 500 Index is on track for only three green weeks against nine weeks red to start the year:

Year to date, the stock market has closed lower in nine of 12 weeks, including the last five straight. (Source: Barchart)

The first quarter is off to the worst start in market history.

Already trading historically sideways through January and February, the markets are now pricing a prolonged spike in energy, natural resources and the uncertainty of war in real time.

Unlike last year’s tariff tantrum, President Donald Trump can not easily turn off the war and regain economic momentum through executive orders. The damage to fertilizer and helium production and supply chains – among the hard goods needed for farming and microchip manufacturing – will need to be repaired or rebuilt in the Gulf.

Oil, of course, is grabbing headlines. WTI is trading above $100 again today, marking its highest price since the pandemic lockdowns when it spiked to $114.

If open hostilities do end and oil prices moderate, stocks will likely bounce higher. Until then, take a look at your 401 (k) and make sure your investments are diversified enough to withstand a broad sell-off.

~ Addison

P.S. It could be a good time to look at real estate, too. Or just turn off your news feed and set off for new horizons.

On last week’s Grey Swan Live, we dove into international real estate with the piece we filmed in Panama. We sat down with Ronan McMahon at The Gathering, hosted by Ronan and our friends at Real Estate Trend Alert (RETA).

RETA members are able to get exclusive discounts on real estate projects in top destinations like Panama, Mexico, Portugal and more.

We’ve also published the 2026 RETA Index report with Ronan’s top destinations to buy in 2026 with the replay.

Ronan and his team will also make their masterclass in international real estate available to paid-up members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

This masterclass is your complete road map to owning overseas in 2026. In six videos, they will take you through everything you need to know, starting right at the beginning.

They aren’t holding anything back. Ronan is sharing all the key lessons he’s learned in two and a half decades of buying and scouting real estate overseas.

Barring the mother of all stock market rallies today and tomorrow, the S&P 500 Index is on track for only three green weeks against nine weeks red to start the year:

Year to date, the stock market has closed lower in nine of 12 weeks, including the last five straight. (Source: Barchart)

~ Addison

P.S. It could be a good time to look at real estate, too. Or just turn off your news feed and set off for new horizons.

RETA members are able to get exclusive discounts on real estate projects in top destinations like Panama, Mexico, Portugal and more.

We’ve also published the 2026 RETA Index report with Ronan’s top destinations to buy in 2026 with the replay.

They aren’t holding anything back. Ronan is sharing all the key lessons he’s learned in two and a half decades of buying and scouting real estate overseas.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.