Why You’ll Embrace the “Terrifying Bull Market”

August 15, 2025 • 1 minute, 41 second read

What’s happened over the last 30 years?

Big picture? Assets go up, and the purchasing power of the dollar goes down.

Gold has just edged out stocks over the last 25 years – century to date. Going back a little further, to gold’s cyclical bottom in the late 1990s, stocks have a slight edge:

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Financial markets are far from a perfect safe-haven from inflation, but they’re easy for investors to get in and out of. (Source: X/Twitter)

What has happened over the past 30 years could now happen again – this time over 30 months. Or even less.

That’s the power of what Grey Swan’s Mark Jeftovic warns will be, “the most terrifying bull market” in history. One where investors jump into stocks at any price and valuation, in the hope that it will escape the clutches of inflation.

Chances are, it won’t fully protect you – but as we can see, it will provide some insulation. And stocks remain the most liquid game in town – it’s a faster place to move your money to compared to real estate or grabbing cash and running to your local coin dealer.

But with today’s sky-high valuations and high market concentration in big-cap tech stocks, investors will want to look for better opportunities that can come out ahead should the path to destroy the dollar accelerates.

~ Addison

P.S. This is yet another reason why we see gold prices soaring even higher – potentially into the five-digit range, in the years ahead. Gold’s fundamentals are strong – but what’s even more important is the structural weakness now baked into the dollar by decades of deficits.

We’ll be digging into both sides of that equation — plus our latest research — in this week’s special session of Grey Swan Live! today, Friday, August 15, 2025… exactly 54 years since Nixon “closed the gold window.”Members will get the sneak peek before anyone else.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our fiscal reality is clearly unsustainable. With the passage of the “Big Beautiful” budget reconciliation bill, Congress has already given itself permission to grow the national debt to $41 trillion. Interest payments on the national debt are already the second-most-expensive item on the federal budget, behind only Social Security (and ahead of defense spending). As the national debt continues to grow, debt service will become our number one spending obligation. History suggests it’s only a matter of time until we hit that limit and, unless things change, once again raise the debt ceiling. This cannot continue indefinitely.

Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?

When Trust Runs Thin, Markets… Rally?

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Bloomberg’s September survey of economists found that the majority are “somewhat or extremely worried” that the Fed’s decisions will be influenced by political loyalties.

If that happens, borrowing costs for the U.S. government rise as risk premia creep into Treasury markets.

Public confidence is already threadbare.

In 2001, 74% of Americans trusted Alan Greenspan to do the right thing. In 2025, only 37% say the same of Jerome Powell. For the first time, trust in Trump to manage the economy is higher than trust in the Fed chair.

The Tech Meltup, Exhibit A

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Overall, the S&P 500’s RSI hit 70, the low side of overbought territory — for the entire index.

“Fed rate cuts tomorrow are likely priced in,” writes portfolio director, Andrew Packer, “it may not trigger a selloff, but at these levels, investors may be disappointed with a .25 cut.”

Tech investors will remain bullish on the prospect of multiple rate cuts over the next few meetings.

But be wary of any indication the Fed tries to rebuff Trump’s overtures and, God forbid, remain independent tomorrow.

Plowshares into Swords

September 15, 2025 • Bill Bonner

The empire is in decline. Demographics, regulatory tightening, fake money and the mis-allocation of trillions of dollars (much of it on pointless wars) have sapped the vitality of the economy. The Federal government gets bigger and bigger, but there is no longer enough output to pay for it.

The interest on the debt alone takes more more than a trillion dollars a year. The US faces a financial crisis. And for the first time in history, our children face a poorer future.

The welfare state model no longer works; the center — consensual democracy — wobbles towards the extremes. What to do? Beat our plowshares into swords?