In 2026, 26% of all U.S. debt – a mix of everything from 30-day T-bills to 30-year Treasurys – will refinance.
For every bond maturing that had a duration over five years, the new interest rate will be higher than the old:
Over one-quarter of all U.S. debt is maturing this year at higher rates. (Source: Azuria Capital)
The last time Uncle Sam had this much debt rolling over, interest rates were effectively zero percent. That allowed for a massive expansion of total debt, even as total interest payouts shrank.
During the Great Financial Crisis, the government bailed out Wall Street banks at low rates. And while the deficit soared past $1 trillion annually for the first time, total borrowing costs declined.
Zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) was extended from the Bernanke Fed in 2008 through the Yellen years until 2018, when Jerome Powell first began hiking rates. Then, ZIRP was rapidly deployed during the pandemic.
The government borrowed money on the cheap for over a decade.
Today, as those low-interest-rate bonds from 2020 and earlier need to “roll” into bonds with higher rates. Finding buyers for those bonds is a stated objective of the Treasury’s turnaround support for Dollar 2.0 stablecoin regulation.
When the government maxes out the national credit card – the Fed has to step in as the buyer of last resort. On December 1, 2025, the central bank began buying Treasurys again to help try to keep the nation’s credit bill in check.
The bond market will only allow a 0% rollover for so long. This year isn’t one of those times. Compounding interest at higher rates has now pushed interest payments on the national debt to the third largest item on the national balance sheet, ahead of the aggressive budget for Trump’s Department of War.
~ Addison
P.S. Rising interest payments at the federal level is just one reason you’ll want to tune into our Grey Swan Live! two-fer this week:
First up, today at 2 p.m. Eastern, we’re going to look a tale of the tape between the collective vision of Zohran Mamdani in New York City vs. the slash and burn government budget of Javier Milei in Argentina. If you listen to Milei’s address to the WEF in 2024 and Mamdani’s inaugural address from this year, you’ll be blown away at the disparate roles each system envisions for government and your taxes.
Joel Bowman — our “man on the scene” in Buenos Aires since before President Milei got elected – will help us rummage through the politics. And give us a fresh primer on Investing At the End of the World this afternoon at 2 p.m. Eastern.
Then tomorrow — on Friday at 2pm EST – it’s not just about what we trade, but how we trade — we’re hosting a special presentation on how to stop overpaying the IRS in 2026.
Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can:
- Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
- Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
- Shield your personal finances from trading risk.
Stay tuned for more details on how to join us on Friday at 1 p.m. ET.
