Where Markets Go From Here After Israel Strikes Iran

As the saying goes: “history doesn’t repeat itself – but it does rhyme.”

While the situation in the Middle East is fresh in the news, investors are feeling a dose of deja vu fear following Israel’s strike on Iran last night.

The U.S. officially stepped aside. And markets haven’t reacted too strongly. But it’s worth asking the question. What can we expect going forward? Prior similar events provide a clue:

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The real question is not “what happens next”?

Rather, the one we should be asking is ”what was the market trend before” the conflict got heated?

The U.S.’s invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 occurred during the midst of the dotcom bust. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine occurred in 2022, when the Fed started raising interest rates and the market was already trending lower.

Likewise, during Russia’s 2014 Crimea incursion, markets were in an uptrend.

Ditto early 2003, when the U.S. started its misadventure in Iraq.

With stocks in an uptrend before Israel’s latest attack, markets may still have a bit more room to run over the summer.

But from our perspective, the more fundamental issues – like out-of-control spending, endless deficits, and failing bond auctions – pose the real danger.

Those issues are only taking a back seat to the headlines for now.

~ Addison

June 15: Denmark’s Last Gasp…

The Arctic’s vast abundance of riches — shipping lanes, resources, and space ports — makes it an economic and geopolitical Holy Grail, which is why Denmark’s stewardship of Greenland must end.

Greenland needs real protection. American protection.

Investors, take notice…

As President Trump attends the G7 Summit (on June 15), the potential exists for a bombshell announcement regarding Greenland. We mapped Greenland’s five major profit zones, which could boom any minute.

Click here to view our presentation, ASAP >>

P.S.: Paid readers who didn’t get the chance to sit in on Grey Swan Live! with John Robb yesterday, we urge you to check out the recorded version right here. John takes us behind the scenes of asymmetric warfare and the impact of AI, drones and pinpoint missile accuracy in today’s most alarming conflicts.

And, with the hard asset story getting stronger by the minute, so is our research. Andrew will be at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.

The Symposium is a five-day affair featuring in-depth research from dozens of small-cap resource companies, including gold and silver mining companies – but also copper, uranium, and other critical commodities we’ve explored in-depth in our research over the past year. Click here to attend and meet your future cutting-edge resource investments face-to-face.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

As the saying goes: “history doesn’t repeat itself – but it does rhyme.”

While the situation in the Middle East is fresh in the news, investors are feeling a dose of deja vu fear following Israel’s strike on Iran last night.

The U.S. officially stepped aside. And markets haven’t reacted too strongly. But it’s worth asking the question. What can we expect going forward? Prior similar events provide a clue:

Turn Your Images On

The real question is not “what happens next”?

Rather, the one we should be asking is ”what was the market trend before” the conflict got heated?

Likewise, during Russia’s 2014 Crimea incursion, markets were in an uptrend.

Ditto early 2003, when the U.S. started its misadventure in Iraq.

With stocks in an uptrend before Israel’s latest attack, markets may still have a bit more room to run over the summer.

But from our perspective, the more fundamental issues – like out-of-control spending, endless deficits, and failing bond auctions – pose the real danger.

Those issues are only taking a back seat to the headlines for now.

~ Addison

June 15: Denmark’s Last Gasp…

Greenland needs real protection. American protection.

Investors, take notice…

Click here to view our presentation, ASAP >>

And, with the hard asset story getting stronger by the minute, so is our research. Andrew will be at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning, the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.