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Ripple Effect

Where Markets Go From Here After Israel Strikes Iran

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

June 13, 2025 • 2 minute, 18 second read


geopoliticsIranIsraelMarkets

Where Markets Go From Here After Israel Strikes Iran

As the saying goes: “history doesn’t repeat itself – but it does rhyme.”

While the situation in the Middle East is fresh in the news, investors are feeling a dose of deja vu fear following Israel’s strike on Iran last night.

The U.S. officially stepped aside. And markets haven’t reacted too strongly. But it’s worth asking the question. What can we expect going forward? Prior similar events provide a clue:

Turn Your Images On

The real question is not “what happens next”?

Rather, the one we should be asking is ”what was the market trend before” the conflict got heated?

The U.S.’s invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 occurred during the midst of the dotcom bust. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine occurred in 2022, when the Fed started raising interest rates and the market was already trending lower.

Likewise, during Russia’s 2014 Crimea incursion, markets were in an uptrend.

Ditto early 2003, when the U.S. started its misadventure in Iraq.

With stocks in an uptrend before Israel’s latest attack, markets may still have a bit more room to run over the summer.

But from our perspective, the more fundamental issues – like out-of-control spending, endless deficits, and failing bond auctions – pose the real danger.

Those issues are only taking a back seat to the headlines for now.

~ Addison

June 15: Denmark’s Last Gasp…

Turn On Your Images.

The Arctic’s vast abundance of riches — shipping lanes, resources, and space ports — makes it an economic and geopolitical Holy Grail, which is why Denmark’s stewardship of Greenland must end.

Greenland needs real protection. American protection.

Investors, take notice…

As President Trump attends the G7 Summit (on June 15), the potential exists for a bombshell announcement regarding Greenland. We mapped Greenland’s five major profit zones, which could boom any minute.

Click here to view our presentation, ASAP >>

P.S.: Paid readers who didn’t get the chance to sit in on Grey Swan Live! with John Robb yesterday, we urge you to check out the recorded version right here. John takes us behind the scenes of asymmetric warfare and the impact of AI, drones and pinpoint missile accuracy in today’s most alarming conflicts.

And, with the hard asset story getting stronger by the minute, so is our research. Andrew will be at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.

The Symposium is a five-day affair featuring in-depth research from dozens of small-cap resource companies, including gold and silver mining companies – but also copper, uranium, and other critical commodities we’ve explored in-depth in our research over the past year. Click here to attend and meet your future cutting-edge resource investments face-to-face.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired

December 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict. 

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired
Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy

December 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy
Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later

December 23, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots. 

Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later
2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!

December 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!