Wall of Worry, Indeed

Last week’s market weakness — with a big selloff Thursday, and a pre-market decline on Friday — brought out the bears.

Based on the latest sentiment survey, investors are fairly neutral overall:

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Investors are mixed on the market’s returns in the next six months (Source: AAII)

This is good news for our “most terrifying bull market” thesis.

Wall Street traders have a term for this phase: the wall of worry. As long as investors get fearful enough, the market top isn’t in.

At the top, investors will go all-in – in what’s known as the “blow of top”, like they did with dotcom stocks in 1999, or as many did with SPAC companies in 2021.

We haven’t quite gotten to the “this time is different” mentality that causes investors to throw on the blinders – yet.

~ Addison

P.S. So what do you do with your money before the blow-off top? Glad you asked.

This week on Grey Swan Live! we’re planning a special two-fer for you. On Thursday, October 23, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET we’re going to do a run down of all the historical records this terrifying bull market has already hit — including retail investor buy-in, record margin debt and capital concentration at the top of the S&P 500.

We’re going to lay out in simple terms the AI crash scenario. Mostly, so you’re aware of what’s at stake, where we are in the mania and exactly what we expect to happen.

As Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of Too Big To Fail, said this week while promoting his new book “1929,” if we’re all in agreement this is a bubble in AI stocks, the trick is to “know when to get on [and more importantly] get off, the wave.”

Then, on Friday, October 24, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET, we’re going to do a comprehensive asset allocation and model portfolio review for paid-up annual members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

During the review session on Friday, we’ll be giving you access to an exclusive Plunge Protention Plan (for annual members only) including ways you can protect your money against a stock market correction and a few aggressive ways you can make money like the pros when the stock market goes down.

We’ll be providing more details throughout the week. But for now mark your calendar for these two dates:

Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — comprehensive overreview of the “terrifying bull market.”
Friday, October 24, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — a comprehensive review of the Grey Swan asset allocation strategy and model portfolio. (For paid up annual members only)

The time to prepare for a market correction is before it happens, not while or after. If you wait to long, the the exits will get crowded in a hurry… and you don’t want to be worrying about your money if and when that happens.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Last week’s market weakness — with a big selloff Thursday, and a pre-market decline on Friday — brought out the bears.

Based on the latest sentiment survey, investors are fairly neutral overall:

Turn Your Images On

Investors are mixed on the market’s returns in the next six months (Source: AAII)

This is good news for our “most terrifying bull market” thesis.

Wall Street traders have a term for this phase: the wall of worry. As long as investors get fearful enough, the market top isn’t in.

At the top, investors will go all-in – in what’s known as the “blow of top”, like they did with dotcom stocks in 1999, or as many did with SPAC companies in 2021.

We haven’t quite gotten to the “this time is different” mentality that causes investors to throw on the blinders – yet.

~ Addison

P.S. So what do you do with your money before the blow-off top? Glad you asked.

We’re going to lay out in simple terms the AI crash scenario. Mostly, so you’re aware of what’s at stake, where we are in the mania and exactly what we expect to happen.

Then, on Friday, October 24, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET, we’re going to do a comprehensive asset allocation and model portfolio review for paid-up annual members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

We’ll be providing more details throughout the week. But for now mark your calendar for these two dates:

Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — comprehensive overreview of the “terrifying bull market.”
Friday, October 24, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — a comprehensive review of the Grey Swan asset allocation strategy and model portfolio. (For paid up annual members only)

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Through the first 41 trading days of 2026, the S&P 500 traded within a 2.7% range — the narrowest start to any year since 1928. The first 41 days of 2008 spanned roughly 35%. In 2020, the range ran near 15%. Even the placid 1950s never opened this tight…

Since the Iran attack began, global markets have been chaotic. Despite some wild intraday swings this week, the U.S. stock market has held up well. When bombs go flying, capital moves from frontier markets to safer shores. And even though the U.S. has been the one to aggressively move against Iran, capital that was going to foreign markets has shifted back to New York.

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