Mind Your Allocation In 2026

For only the 12th time in over a century, stocks are about to close out a third year in a bull market. The longest bull run – a five-year stretch – occurred during the run-up to the tech bubble 1995-1999.

Today, institutional and retail investors alike are “all in” on stocks.

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Retail stock allocation is near all-time highs (Source: AAII)

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, the average retail investor has about a 70% allocation to stocks. That’s well over the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. Even a 60/40 allocation ignores real estate, gold, collectibles, and private assets.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

In other words, enjoy the bull market… while it lasts.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday, Grey Swan Live! with Dan Amoss allowed us to end our intriguing off-the-books conversations on a high note for 2025.

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Dan opened up his GAAP accounting notes and revealed why and how he believes the AI capex spending boom will likely bust. With Dan’s characteristic ease and clarity, we sifted through some of the more arcane accounting methods that companies can use during boom times to keep up appearances for Wall Street analysts. Perhaps, more to the point, he showed his own technique for turning those tedious insights into actionable and quick hit gains using options.

Near the end of the session, Dan shared a few bullish trades he’s sitting on in natural resources, mining and precious metals – a sector he expects is in “the second or third inning” of its own bull run. There’s a lot more to come in 2026.

When we return with Grey Swan Live! in early January, we encourage you to join us. The live Zoom calls have turned out to be one of the greatest benefits of being a member of Grey Swan Investment Fraternity and a highlight of our week each week.

Members can access the 2026: Something Wicked This Way Comes episode of Grey Swan Live! with Dan Amoss replay in the members-only archive of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity site here.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Today, institutional and retail investors alike are “all in” on stocks.

Turn Your Images On

Retail stock allocation is near all-time highs (Source: AAII)

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

In other words, enjoy the bull market… while it lasts.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday, Grey Swan Live! with Dan Amoss allowed us to end our intriguing off-the-books conversations on a high note for 2025.

Turn Your Images On

Members can access the 2026: Something Wicked This Way Comes episode of Grey Swan Live! with Dan Amoss replay in the members-only archive of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity site here.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Roughly 70–80% of global silver supply comes as a byproduct of mining other metals—copper, lead, zinc, gold. This means that even if silver prices doubled tomorrow, production wouldn’t automatically increase unless mining of those other metals ramped up too. You can’t just “decide” to mine more silver.

Layer China’s export controls on top of all that, and you’re looking at a supply profile that’s unusually tight—and unusually vulnerable.

The High Yield Bond Distress Index measures levels in the junk bond market, including liquidity, market functionality, and how easily companies can borrow.

A reading this low signals extremely healthy borrowing conditions for high-yield issuers. It’s also where we would look for distress in the corporate AI build out debt issuance.

And if the high yield bond market isn’t worried yet, stock market pullbacks are likely to be short and shallow – and will likely play a role in a midyear “crack-up boom.”

In late December, just days before the controls took effect, silver in Shanghai traded near $78 per ounce, while the COMEX closed closer to $72. A six-dollar gap.

Normally, that spread would collapse almost instantly. Traders would buy cheap metal and sell it at a higher price until the prices converged.

Since January 1, 2026, that hasn’t happened.

Physical silver inside China carried a premium that paper markets couldn’t erase.

At the same time, London’s bullion market slipped into what traders call “backwardation” — buyers willing to pay more now than later, a classic signal of supply stress.

This is what it looks like when settlement frictions appear.

The U.S. dollar is being dethroned from the global monetary system in real time.

While many have pointed out – correctly – that the buck is still the global trading currency of choice, the rise of gold for savings is the real story here… even with Dollar 2.0 digital assets rebooting global finance.

Following gold’s 60% rally in 2025, we expect gold’s uptrend to remain intact.

Layer China’s export controls on top of all that, and you’re looking at a supply profile that’s unusually tight—and unusually vulnerable.

The High Yield Bond Distress Index measures levels in the junk bond market, including liquidity, market functionality, and how easily companies can borrow.

A reading this low signals extremely healthy borrowing conditions for high-yield issuers. It’s also where we would look for distress in the corporate AI build out debt issuance.

And if the high yield bond market isn’t worried yet, stock market pullbacks are likely to be short and shallow – and will likely play a role in a midyear “crack-up boom.”

In late December, just days before the controls took effect, silver in Shanghai traded near $78 per ounce, while the COMEX closed closer to $72. A six-dollar gap.

Normally, that spread would collapse almost instantly. Traders would buy cheap metal and sell it at a higher price until the prices converged.

Since January 1, 2026, that hasn’t happened.

Physical silver inside China carried a premium that paper markets couldn’t erase.

At the same time, London’s bullion market slipped into what traders call “backwardation” — buyers willing to pay more now than later, a classic signal of supply stress.

This is what it looks like when settlement frictions appear.

The U.S. dollar is being dethroned from the global monetary system in real time.

Following gold’s 60% rally in 2025, we expect gold’s uptrend to remain intact.