Mind Your Allocation In 2026

For only the 12th time in over a century, stocks are about to close out a third year in a bull market. The longest bull run – a five-year stretch – occurred during the run-up to the tech bubble 1995-1999.

Today, institutional and retail investors alike are “all in” on stocks.

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Retail stock allocation is near all-time highs (Source: AAII)

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, the average retail investor has about a 70% allocation to stocks. That’s well over the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. Even a 60/40 allocation ignores real estate, gold, collectibles, and private assets.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

In other words, enjoy the bull market… while it lasts.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday, Grey Swan Live! with Dan Amoss allowed us to end our intriguing off-the-books conversations on a high note for 2025.

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Dan opened up his GAAP accounting notes and revealed why and how he believes the AI capex spending boom will likely bust. With Dan’s characteristic ease and clarity, we sifted through some of the more arcane accounting methods that companies can use during boom times to keep up appearances for Wall Street analysts. Perhaps, more to the point, he showed his own technique for turning those tedious insights into actionable and quick hit gains using options.

Near the end of the session, Dan shared a few bullish trades he’s sitting on in natural resources, mining and precious metals – a sector he expects is in “the second or third inning” of its own bull run. There’s a lot more to come in 2026.

When we return with Grey Swan Live! in early January, we encourage you to join us. The live Zoom calls have turned out to be one of the greatest benefits of being a member of Grey Swan Investment Fraternity and a highlight of our week each week.

Members can access the 2026: Something Wicked This Way Comes episode of Grey Swan Live! with Dan Amoss replay in the members-only archive of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity site here.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Today, institutional and retail investors alike are “all in” on stocks.

Turn Your Images On

Retail stock allocation is near all-time highs (Source: AAII)

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

In other words, enjoy the bull market… while it lasts.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday, Grey Swan Live! with Dan Amoss allowed us to end our intriguing off-the-books conversations on a high note for 2025.

Turn Your Images On

Members can access the 2026: Something Wicked This Way Comes episode of Grey Swan Live! with Dan Amoss replay in the members-only archive of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity site here.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Mining stocks amplify everything. First Majestic went from losing money to 45% margins without building anything new. They just held the line on costs while silver did the heavy lifting.

That cuts both ways. If silver drops hard, margins compress just as fast. Same leverage, opposite direction.

The miners with the lowest costs and cleanest balance sheets will hold up best in a pullback and capture the most upside if the deficit keeps grinding.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said this morning they expect core inflation to finish the year around 2% even while GDP rises at a “surprisingly strong” 2.5% clip.

In our view, their inflation forecast is optimistic. Their GDP call? Modest.

The last time we pumped this much liquidity into the system — 2020 through 2022—the result was a manic asset bubble, runaway inflation, and an epic hangover at the Fed.

Goldman’s optimism has triggered a fresh round of bullish bets: cyclical stocks are rallying, “dispersion” in the S&P 500 is spiking, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice before Jerome Powell gets kicked out of Washington at the end of his term on May 15.

Anecdotally, we’re hearing stories of warehouses full of GPUs sitting unused for lack of energy to power them. It’s a natural feature of the heavy capital investment in new machines. The grid has to catch up!

While Trump’s great reset rolls on in 2026, keep an eye on modular nuclear reactors and increased demand for uranium, natural gas and related resources.

These PM producers are literally printing the most ‘hard money’ that they ever have at these metals prices and record margins here at the midway point in Q4.

If there ever was a time for this sector to get overheated and frothy, this would be it… only that isn’t what we’ve seen playing out.

PM producers are still insanely profitable at even at current metals prices and should be far more valuable based on their margins, revenue generating potential, and their resources still in the ground.