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Ripple Effect

Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 1, 2025 • 1 minute, 12 second read


valuation

Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

In the first few months of the year, European stocks started outperforming U.S. stocks. There was talk of capital flows out of the U.S., and into Europe.

On the surface, that looked reasonable – a relative value play. But European investors continue to stay invested in the U.S. for one simple reason – it’s where the growth is.

Ditto the rest of the world. In fact, even as a government shutdown unfolds, foreign holdings of U.S. stocks are now at a record high:

Turn Your Images On

Foreign investors continue to buy American (Source: Topdown Charts)

Over the past 15 years, the GDP in the U.S. has roughly doubled, thanks to advances in technology and a country that still encourages innovation first – not regulation as in EU countries.

In contrast, the Eurozone’s GDP has flatlined since the 2010 debt crisis. That’s 15 years of no growth, mixed with the same burst of pandemic-era inflation that impacted the U.S.

It’s a feature of the terrifying bull market underway. Valuations, margin debt, and government debt are historically high right now… and the U.S. stock market is the best game in town.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Our forecast for significantly higher gold prices continues to move in the right direction, with gold topping $3,900 this morning as the U.S. government enters a shutdown. Stay tuned!

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

Oh. Canada
Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You

February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You