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Ripple Effect

Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 1, 2025 • 1 minute, 12 second read


valuation

Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

In the first few months of the year, European stocks started outperforming U.S. stocks. There was talk of capital flows out of the U.S., and into Europe.

On the surface, that looked reasonable – a relative value play. But European investors continue to stay invested in the U.S. for one simple reason – it’s where the growth is.

Ditto the rest of the world. In fact, even as a government shutdown unfolds, foreign holdings of U.S. stocks are now at a record high:

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Foreign investors continue to buy American (Source: Topdown Charts)

Over the past 15 years, the GDP in the U.S. has roughly doubled, thanks to advances in technology and a country that still encourages innovation first – not regulation as in EU countries.

In contrast, the Eurozone’s GDP has flatlined since the 2010 debt crisis. That’s 15 years of no growth, mixed with the same burst of pandemic-era inflation that impacted the U.S.

It’s a feature of the terrifying bull market underway. Valuations, margin debt, and government debt are historically high right now… and the U.S. stock market is the best game in town.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Our forecast for significantly higher gold prices continues to move in the right direction, with gold topping $3,900 this morning as the U.S. government enters a shutdown. Stay tuned!

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


The Stablecoin Standard

October 2, 2025 • Mark Jeftovic

Stablecoins have proceeded rapidly from being a grey zone through which capital would traverse as it moved into or out of the crypto-economy, to becoming an extension, if not a nascent pillar, of the fiat money system itself.

Coinbase Head of Institutional Research David Duong sees the market cap for stables hitting $1/2 trillion by 2028 (which would be somewhere between a 4X and 5X from where we are now).

Demetri Kofinas recently interviewed Charles Calomiris, former Chief Economist at the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and it was eye-opening to hear someone of his stature speak so matter-of-factly about how the structure of the banking system is evolving in realtime.

The Stablecoin Standard
Gold Goes Parabolic, Briefly

October 2, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is up 123% this year, the best this century.

The last time gold ran this hot — 1979 — savers stood in lines that wrapped around city blocks, waiting hours for Krugerrands and Maple Leafs. Fathers pulled kids out of school to get in line before the shop sold out. Dealers locked their doors mid-afternoon, unable to meet the demand.

It was less of an investment than survival. Inflation made cash a wasting asset, and gold was the last refuge.

We don’t want to see that again.

Gold is best as ballast — steady, weighty, tethering a portfolio to something real. When it turns into the object of a mania, it means we’ve entered the debt crisis of which we’ve long been wary.

Gold Goes Parabolic, Briefly
Meager Pickings for Shoppers

October 2, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The cost to ship cars, refrigerators, and Christmas toys has fallen back to numbers we last saw when the economy was on lockdown.

For these rates to rise, demand for goods needs to rise…. unlikely as President Trump’s tariff strategy is intended to reshore domestic production of these goods in the U.S.  

Until factories come online, there will be fewer goods on the shelves. Combined with declining jobs and stubborn inflation, however, that fact may go unnoticed this holiday season.

Meager Pickings for Shoppers
Here Comes Yield Control

October 1, 2025 • Mark Jeftovic

We’ve been saying for a long time that when it came time to rev up the money printer again, the Fed would do it under some other rubric than “Quantitative Easing” (QE), because by now, everybody knows what that is. YCC? Not so much.

What it means is that the Fed will buy unlimited bonds out at the long end of the yield curve in order to keep yields under some arbitrary line in the sand.

Here Comes Yield Control