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Ripple Effect

Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 1, 2025 • 1 minute, 12 second read


valuation

Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

In the first few months of the year, European stocks started outperforming U.S. stocks. There was talk of capital flows out of the U.S., and into Europe.

On the surface, that looked reasonable – a relative value play. But European investors continue to stay invested in the U.S. for one simple reason – it’s where the growth is.

Ditto the rest of the world. In fact, even as a government shutdown unfolds, foreign holdings of U.S. stocks are now at a record high:

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Foreign investors continue to buy American (Source: Topdown Charts)

Over the past 15 years, the GDP in the U.S. has roughly doubled, thanks to advances in technology and a country that still encourages innovation first – not regulation as in EU countries.

In contrast, the Eurozone’s GDP has flatlined since the 2010 debt crisis. That’s 15 years of no growth, mixed with the same burst of pandemic-era inflation that impacted the U.S.

It’s a feature of the terrifying bull market underway. Valuations, margin debt, and government debt are historically high right now… and the U.S. stock market is the best game in town.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Our forecast for significantly higher gold prices continues to move in the right direction, with gold topping $3,900 this morning as the U.S. government enters a shutdown. Stay tuned!

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


The Hollow Class, Part II

November 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As interest rates fell, investors swarmed into real estate, lured by yields and the illusion that home prices never fell. Wall Street’s private-label securitizers were soon packaging everything from pristine mortgages to what were effectively loans scribbled on napkins, thus turning them into bonds that glowed like gold — until you looked too closely.

For their part, the regulators and ratings agencies conveniently looked away and allowed the bubble to grow. Fannie Mae watched the frenzy from the sidelines at first.

The company’s mandate — written in law — was not to chase profits but to promote affordable housing. That is to say, to make sure that teachers, nurses, and other first-time buyers could own their own homes and unlock the American Dream.

But as Wall Street flooded the market with high-risk mortgage products, political pressure mounted. Congress demanded that Fannie “do its part” for low and moderate-income families.

The Hollow Class, Part II
The Debt of Intelligence

November 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

SoftBank offloaded its entire $5.83 billion Nvidia stake to bankroll an even bigger gamble: tens of billions in OpenAI.

Son insists this is his next Vision Fund moment.

OpenAI’s swelling valuation doubled SoftBank’s profit last quarter. He may have sold the pickaxe factory, but he’s betting the mine still goes deeper.

The Debt of Intelligence
Consumers Got the Memo

November 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Although consumer debt is at an all-time high, consumers themselves got the message during the last crisis: Pay down debt, own more assets.

That’s taken the U.S. household debt-to-asset ratio to levels last seen in the 1970s, around the time the U.S. went off the gold standard.

Consumers Got the Memo
Dan Denning: The Hollow Class, Part I

November 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

A 50-year mortgage doesn’t make housing cheaper. But by stretching the repayment period over time, it DOES lower the monthly payment on your principal. That lowers the percentage of your total income you’re spending on repayment. And in a strange way, it makes sense.

With a fixed rate mortgage and inflation running in the high upper digits, the real value you of your total debt goes down over time (inflation pays off your loan, as long as your income rises faster in nominal terms). Of course you pay off a lot more interest over 50 years than 30 years. And it takes a lot longer to build up equity (assuming also that house prices don’t fall).

Dan Denning: The Hollow Class, Part I