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Ripple Effect

Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 1, 2025 • 1 minute, 12 second read


valuation

Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

In the first few months of the year, European stocks started outperforming U.S. stocks. There was talk of capital flows out of the U.S., and into Europe.

On the surface, that looked reasonable – a relative value play. But European investors continue to stay invested in the U.S. for one simple reason – it’s where the growth is.

Ditto the rest of the world. In fact, even as a government shutdown unfolds, foreign holdings of U.S. stocks are now at a record high:

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Foreign investors continue to buy American (Source: Topdown Charts)

Over the past 15 years, the GDP in the U.S. has roughly doubled, thanks to advances in technology and a country that still encourages innovation first – not regulation as in EU countries.

In contrast, the Eurozone’s GDP has flatlined since the 2010 debt crisis. That’s 15 years of no growth, mixed with the same burst of pandemic-era inflation that impacted the U.S.

It’s a feature of the terrifying bull market underway. Valuations, margin debt, and government debt are historically high right now… and the U.S. stock market is the best game in town.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Our forecast for significantly higher gold prices continues to move in the right direction, with gold topping $3,900 this morning as the U.S. government enters a shutdown. Stay tuned!

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


The Grand Realignment Gets Personal

January 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Sunday night, Powell addressed the probe head-on in a video post — a rarity. He accused the White House of using cost overruns in the Fed’s HQ renovation as a pretext for political interference.

The White House denied involvement. But few in Washington believed it.

What followed was bipartisan condemnation of the investigation. Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen co-signed a blistering rebuke, warning the U.S. was starting to resemble “emerging markets with weak institutions.”

The Grand Realignment Gets Personal
A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress

January 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.

A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress
Protest Season Amid the Grand Realignment

January 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

There’s an old Wall Street maxim: “Don’t fight the Fed.”

This year, you could add a Trump corollary.

A wise capital allocator doesn’t fight that storm. He doesn’t argue with it. He respects it the way sailors respect the sea: with preparation, with humility, and with a sharp eye for what breaks first.

In 2026, the things that break first are the stories. The narratives. The comfortable assumptions.

Protest Season Amid the Grand Realignment
Breaking: Government Budgets

January 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Total municipal, state and federal debt service costs soared to nearly $1.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. Debt’s easy to accumulate when rates are low. Trouble is, you are obligated to refinance them even after rates go up.

It’s also a key reason why the Trump administration is demanding lower interest rates – even if it means reigniting inflation.

Breaking: Government Budgets