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Ripple Effect

Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 1, 2025 • 1 minute, 12 second read


valuation

Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

In the first few months of the year, European stocks started outperforming U.S. stocks. There was talk of capital flows out of the U.S., and into Europe.

On the surface, that looked reasonable – a relative value play. But European investors continue to stay invested in the U.S. for one simple reason – it’s where the growth is.

Ditto the rest of the world. In fact, even as a government shutdown unfolds, foreign holdings of U.S. stocks are now at a record high:

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Foreign investors continue to buy American (Source: Topdown Charts)

Over the past 15 years, the GDP in the U.S. has roughly doubled, thanks to advances in technology and a country that still encourages innovation first – not regulation as in EU countries.

In contrast, the Eurozone’s GDP has flatlined since the 2010 debt crisis. That’s 15 years of no growth, mixed with the same burst of pandemic-era inflation that impacted the U.S.

It’s a feature of the terrifying bull market underway. Valuations, margin debt, and government debt are historically high right now… and the U.S. stock market is the best game in town.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Our forecast for significantly higher gold prices continues to move in the right direction, with gold topping $3,900 this morning as the U.S. government enters a shutdown. Stay tuned!

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


Dan Denning: The 2026 Battle Royale

December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Altman’s claim is that not only will people get more done with less with AI, they will be happier because their work is easier and…more fun. This follows a report from Anthropic, responsible for the Claude AI, that said AI increases productivity.

I will say I’m skeptical. But we’ve been told the nature of exponential change is that it comes at you faster than you can measure or observe. And if that is true, it will have consequences in 2026 for employees and investors. Big ones.

For employees–those who are not replaced by automated processes and robots–it will mean secure employment and higher wages. A small number of winners getting richer.

Dan Denning: The 2026 Battle Royale
The Inflation Episodes — Act II, Featuring Silver, Gold and Dollar 2.0

December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

American consumers don’t feel – or are at least unaware of – monetary nuance. They’re just getting the bill.

Trump declared last night that “affordability doesn’t mean anything to anybody,” dismissing the term as a “Democrat scam”— this despite recently proclaiming
himself the “Affordability President” on Truth Social.

That’s the current state of political messaging on cost-of-living: part whiplash, part vaudeville. But voters aren’t confused. Grocery prices are still 30% higher than 2020. Tariffs add daily friction. Utilities, rent, houses, tuition, healthcare continue their daily grind upward.

The Inflation Episodes — Act II, Featuring Silver, Gold and Dollar 2.0
The “New” Contrarian Case for Bonds

December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

During a Fed rate cut cycle, bond yields follow, which typically means bond prices tick higher. If you buy bonds now, you’ll be getting in ahead of the crowd.

And if this tech wreck shapes up anything like 2000-01, investors will want to get out fast. Despite the debt mess in Washington, bonds will again look “safe.”

One minor bonus: if you buy now, you’ll lock in higher yields before the next Fed rate cut, which is expected to come one week from today.

The “New” Contrarian Case for Bonds
American Life: Less Ordinary

December 2, 2025 • Bill Bonner

But Green is describing more than just a new calculation. He’s talking about a new form of misery.’ It’s a poverty where you may still have most of the accoutrements of middle-class life. But your relationship with the financial elite has changed: you are indentured to the credit industry — for life.

American Life: Less Ordinary