Trump’s Greenland Gambit

President Trump boarded Air Force One this morning bound for the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos.

This year’s gathering is set to break attendance records: 400 political leaders, including 65 heads of state, plus 850 of the world’s top CEOs will be rubbing elbows in the Alpine resort.

At the top of Trump’s agenda? Greenland.

Trump’s team is eyeing its vast, frozen expanse not for its scenery, but for its treasure trove of buried leverage:

38.5 million tons of rare earth oxides
Massive uranium and fossil fuel reserves
Precious metals

Some of the largest freshwater reserves on Earth.

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Greenland has trillions of dollars in natural resources (Source: Ulrik K. Lykke via X)

But Trump is hardly the first to ogle Greenland’s resources and strategic military importance.

In fact, geography may be the island’s most valuable resource. Greenland sits at the confluence of North America, Europe, and the Arctic.

As the polar ice melts, new shipping lanes open between Asia and Europe — cutting weeks off traditional routes and escalating the race for Arctic dominance.

Secretary of State William H. Seward, the same Seward who bought Alaska from Russia, first advocated for purchasing Greenland in 1867. Again, in 1946, president Harry Truman made a formal, but secret, offer of $100 million in gold to Denmark which Copenhagen declined.

Global stocks are not liking the gambit, posting their sharpest daily drop in two months on Monday, falling 1.2%.

Stock futures in New York pointed down throughout the MLK holiday yesterday.

Gold, often punched through another all-time high—topping $4,738. Silver approached $96, briefly.

~ Addison

P.S. Natural resources are front and center for investment markets in 2026 as such will play a big role in speeches and back-of-the-chalet closed door meetings in Davos.

For your overview, a replay of last week’s Grey Swan Live! with Shad Marquitz is up on the site. Paid-up members can check it out here. With gold and silver soaring, the theme of “Metals Mania” is certainly playing out.

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In the meantime, we’ll have details soon on this week’s Grey Swan Live!

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

President Trump boarded Air Force One this morning bound for the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos.

This year’s gathering is set to break attendance records: 400 political leaders, including 65 heads of state, plus 850 of the world’s top CEOs will be rubbing elbows in the Alpine resort.

At the top of Trump’s agenda? Greenland.

Trump’s team is eyeing its vast, frozen expanse not for its scenery, but for its treasure trove of buried leverage:

38.5 million tons of rare earth oxides
Massive uranium and fossil fuel reserves
Precious metals

Some of the largest freshwater reserves on Earth.

Turn Your Images On

Greenland has trillions of dollars in natural resources (Source: Ulrik K. Lykke via X)

But Trump is hardly the first to ogle Greenland’s resources and strategic military importance.

In fact, geography may be the island’s most valuable resource. Greenland sits at the confluence of North America, Europe, and the Arctic.

As the polar ice melts, new shipping lanes open between Asia and Europe — cutting weeks off traditional routes and escalating the race for Arctic dominance.

Global stocks are not liking the gambit, posting their sharpest daily drop in two months on Monday, falling 1.2%.

Stock futures in New York pointed down throughout the MLK holiday yesterday.

Gold, often punched through another all-time high—topping $4,738. Silver approached $96, briefly.

~ Addison

P.S. Natural resources are front and center for investment markets in 2026 as such will play a big role in speeches and back-of-the-chalet closed door meetings in Davos.

Turn Your Images On

In the meantime, we’ll have details soon on this week’s Grey Swan Live!

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.

We expect space, robotics and some more visible tech startups to remain sources of speculation. After weakness in the first half of 2026, we’re also due for a strong rotation of capital into natural resources, precious metals, critical minerals and energy.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

Here goes:

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.