Swan Dive

Trump, the Fed, and the Commanding Heights

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 26, 20255 minute, 41 second read



Trump, the Fed, and the Commanding Heights

President Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is the most dramatic step yet in his drive to bend the central bank to his will. The Wall Street Journal called it “uncharted waters,” and they’re right.

Cook, refusing to step down, said bluntly: “The president has no authority to remove me.” Her lawyer, Abbe Lowell, vowed to fight in court: “We will take whatever actions are needed to prevent his attempted illegal action.”

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Now, the entire Federal Reserve Board of Governors and its very independence is under assault by Trump’s Great Reset strategy . (source: Wall Street Journal)

The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 says governors can only be removed “for cause” — meaning malfeasance, not politics.

Trump cites alleged mortgage fraud (charges Cook denies) as his justification.

But the timing is telling: markets sit at historic highs, tech valuations are stretched to perfection, and even the hint of volatility could topple the indexes.

Trump has spent months berating Jerome Powell for not cutting rates. Now he’s maneuvering to add enough loyal voices to the Board of Governors to outvote him. If successful, the Fed’s independence — already wobbling — could collapse.

As Peter Conti-Brown of Penn put it: “If we allow this to become the norm, then this is the end of Federal Reserve independence as we know it.”

And that’s the game: engineer lower rates even as inflation creeps back. It’s dangerous, and you ignore it at your own peril.

📊 The Bigger Play: Control of the Fed

Jim Bianco points out something most people miss: all twelve Fed District Bank presidents serve five-year terms, ending in years ending in “1” and “6.” That means February 2026, just six months away, the entire slate of presidents comes up for renewal.

The Board of Governors has veto power. With Cook out, Trump would have four allies on the Board — including Powell’s eventual successor. That could spell trouble for Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (who barely scraped through his last reappointment) and even John Williams at the New York Fed.

Never in 112 years has the Board vetoed a district president. But Trump has shown no hesitation to break precedent. A radical restructuring of the Fed is now in play.


🥂 Markets Party On

The irony is rich: against this backdrop of political chaos, asset markets are partying like it’s 2021. The combined valuation of U.S. stocks has surpassed the peaks of both 1929 and the dotcom bubble.

Tech companies on the S&P are priced to perfection, a handful of megacaps pulling the whole index higher.

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As Fed independence and the banking system come under attack, nature’s money is getting some overdue attention (Source: Bloomberg)

Gold jumped above $3,376 an ounce on the Cook news, a hedge against uncertainty and a weaker dollar. Bitcoin hovers near record highs, although it has pulled back amid some signs of large holders – dubbed whales in the industry – have rung the cash register.

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Amid the sturm and drang of the Trump reset , gold and bitcoin have been exerting the kind of stability and flight to safety normally reserved for the Federal Reserve and US Treasury. (Source: Kobeissi Letter)

Every asset owner knows what Powell’s pivot means: more liquidity, more fuel for prices.

As Ludwig von Mises warned: “Inflation can be pursued only so long as the public still does not believe it will continue. Once the people generally realize that the inflation will be continued on and on… the fate of the money is sealed.”

Looks like Trump and the crew are going to “f’ around and find out,” as the kids these days are sayin’.

🏛 Commanding Heights, Part I: Washington Buys In

But who are we kidding?

It’s not just the Fed. The U.S. government is taking unprecedented steps into the market itself. Last week, Washington announced it will take a nearly 10% position in Intel, in exchange for grants to fund its long-delayed Ohio “megafab.”

It’s not alone. MP Materials, America’s rare-earth producer, has received federal support. A “golden share” arrangement was cut with Nippon Steel earlier this year.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said these are just “down payments” on a sovereign wealth fund President Trump wants to establish.

The questions are immediate: who oversees such a fund? What happens when administrations change? Will corporate strategies follow market signals — or political mandates?

⚠️ Commanding Heights, Part II: A Dangerous Precedent

History is clear on this point. Lenin spelled it out a century ago: “The State must take control of the commanding heights of the economy.” Once the government decides who thrives and who fails, markets no longer discipline capital allocation.

Politics do.

Tavi Costa added his own modern warning: “At some point, a new political party will come into power — it’s inevitable. The question is: How will government involvement in these companies evolve under new leadership? Administrations will change, but these equity stakes won’t. This could lead us down a dangerous path, one we’ve seen before in less stable or less developed economies.”

Intel may look like a chipmaker. MP Materials may look like a miner. But with government on their cap tables, they are something else — a hybrid of market and state, vulnerable to the kind of mission creep that distorts whole economies.

⚖️ What’s at Stake

For you, the individual investor, compounding your investments will help you build wealth. That’s the simplest way to describe our task.

Disrupt the flow, as politics is wont to do, and decades of progress can vanish overnight.

Powell made it clear on Friday: the music for the party on Wall Street isn’t stopping — at least not yet. Asset owners will keep winning, for now. But corrections inside this “terrifying bull market” can hit fast and hard, especially in AI darlings whose valuations float far above fundamentals.

The clock is ticking. The financial system is being tested in unprecedented ways. Ignore it at your peril.

~ Addison

P.S.: That’s why I’ve invited Bloomberg’s #1 labor market analyst, Andrew Zatlin, to join us for Grey Swan Live! this Thursday. He’ll walk us through the jobs data Powell is watching — and how it could flip this market from euphoria to panic in weeks. Don’t miss it.

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P.P.S. We’re helping you prepare for the most terrifying bull market this week. And one step: Stop giving the IRS too much of your money.

This Friday, I’ll share an exclusive Grey Swan plan to show you how to take back what’s rightfully yours:

✔ Discover the 3 IRS-recognized ways to trade.

✔ Learn which structure best protects your gains.

✔ Unlock access to 250+ deductions the IRS already approves.

✔ Understand how traders are legally saving thousands per year.

Simply click here to save your spot (it’s free).

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com.


DASH and LOW Stock Have One Key Thing In Common

September 18, 2025Adam O'Dell

Sometimes, a compelling market trend flashes like a neon sign on the Vegas strip.

We’ve seen that a lot with mega trends like artificial intelligence (AI) over the last few years. Just last week, Oracle was rewarded with a 40% post-earnings pop in its stock price after a strong earnings outlook for its AI cloud business.

Other times, you’ve got to do a little work to find out what’s driving a stock’s price higher. And my “New Bulls” list each week is a great place to start.

DASH and LOW Stock Have One Key Thing In Common
The Carrot and The Stick

September 18, 2025Addison Wiggin

Incentives grow markets. Regulation stunts their fragile bones.

The Fed’s rate cuts are carrots. Markets are feasting on them. Over in the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity, Portfolio Director Andrew Packer added a long trade in the commodity market – in a small-cap player, producing a commodity domestically.

As a cherry on top, it might be the next MP Materials or Intel and get explicit government backing, which could really cause shares to take off.

Trump’s threats to the Fed, or the FCC’s jawboning of broadcasters, are sticks. Investors must decide which matters more.

As one market veteran told The Wall Street Journal: “Cheaper money is a carrot. But the bigger question is whether trust in our institutions can hold. Without that, the carrots won’t matter.”

The Carrot and The Stick
Nasdaq Enters Nosebleed Heights

September 18, 2025Addison Wiggin

If you follow technical indicators, the Nasdaq — a broad measure of tech stocks — is now “extremely overbought”… a level only seen in 0.4% of its history.

That’s less than half a percent, and it is likely the precursor to a correction when traders decide to take profits.

Our advice, “panic now, avoid the rush” and rotate your tech into hard assets such as gold , bitcoin, and commodities in general.

Nasdaq Enters Nosebleed Heights
Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?

September 17, 2025Addison Wiggin

As time unfolds, the US federal government’s tentacles burrow ever-deeper into the economy. In the 2008 crisis, banks deemed “too big to fail” received a government bailout. The following year, automobile firms GM and Chrysler were saved from bankruptcy. When the Treasury exited GM in 2013, taxpayers were left with a loss of more than $10 billion. Ten years later, the federal government forbade Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel, in a merger they both desired. Instead, the government settled for Nippon Steel to invest in US Steel alongside its own direct ownership of the firm via a “golden share.” Just this past week, the US federal government announced its 10 percent stake in Intel, the struggling US semiconductor giant. On top of the $7 billion Intel had already received from the 2024 CHIPS Act, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo called Intel “America’s champion semiconductor company.”

Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?