Or, The Willful Destruction
of the Old Order
“The hero’s journey is simply who we are as human beings.”
–Elizabeth Gilbert
March 5, 2025— To understand Trump, the new trade wars, and today’s markets, you have to understand Trump’s own narrative.
And let’s be honest, the story in Trump’s head is very different from the incessant, thoughtless mainstream trope that he’s a bad guy in every aspect.
So, yeah, like most of us, he’s the hero of his own story.
But he’s also a man with debt-procured billions who has become President of the United States twice, even winning the popular vote the second time around.
It’s no surprise that Trump sees himself as the ultimate hero. And the narrative he outlined in his “Technically Not the State of the Union” speech last night perfectly follows a three-act structure.
Only history will reveal the actual plot, whether it’s a Greek tragedy ending in torture and death… or a comedy with some happy couple getting married in an unforeseen sunlit, leafy venue.
In Trump’s first act, he became, in his mind, America’s savior in 2016. In the second act, the 2020 election was shamefully taken from him, leading to a setback. Now, he’s in the third act, the triumphant return.
That three-act “hero’s journey” narrative is one of the most powerful story frameworks that resonates with humans. It’s a structure that makes stories like Lord of the Rings and Star Wars epic and compelling.
It certainly beats out the “vibe election” that Team Harris was shooting for, which lacked a compelling narrative.
Part of that return is tearing apart the system that stymied him during his first term and colluded with Big Tech — who have now, as they say in Game of Thrones, bent the knee — to deny him his 2020 reelection bid.
With that narrative in mind, last night’s “State of the Union that wasn’t” was, frankly, classic Trump. We didn’t really pay attention in our house because Sean Hannity repeats the same talking points 5 nights a week on primetime Fox.
But for the sake of entertainment, let’s take a whack at explaining the drama unfolding before our eyes…
In a piece this morning in the Free Press, Victor Davis Hanson lays it out: if Trump is serious this time — if he’s actually going to tear down the system instead of just throwing punches at it — then he has to bulldoze not just the domestic political order but the entire post-World War II global system along with it.
First, the home front. Neither the Deep State nor the creepy AltGov, the lawfare courts, the recalcitrant media, nor the GOP’s remaining country club wing want the plot to continue or succeed. They haven’t yet figured out what happened on November 5.
Wall Street is looking for clear direction before placing their bets. The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq are all rebounding slightly today after two days of bemoaning rising tariffs.
Collectively, the motley contingent of old-order die-hards are not even sure what hit them, let alone what’s coming next.
If Trump, the hero, wants the agenda he outlined during the Joint Session of Congress last night to succeed, he can’t just fight them one by one.
He has to hit them all at once — overwhelm the system, flood the zone, and make it impossible for his opposition, anyone, to keep up.
Call him what they want: the dealmaker, the chaos agent, the orange devil. In the second term, he wants the world to know that the administration is not about slow, methodical change. His game is to throw so much at the machine so fast that it locks up, crashes, and resets.
And he thinks he can do it; the ultimate hero, completing the hero’s journey story, even if the working title is “Trump Eats World.”
For those watching at home, that means launching an all-out offensive on multiple fronts — and doing it before the midterms shut him down.
It’s not just about the swamp in D.C. If Trump really intends to put “America First” in every sense, then the bigger fight is global.
In the ultimate third act, the hero has to dismantle the old postwar order — the one where the U.S. bankrolls Europe (where the U.S. ponies up 70% of NATO’s budget), polices the Middle East, props up global trade and keeps the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
That’s where Ukraine, NATO, China, and Gaza come in — not as individual crises but as dominoes in a system built for a world that no longer exists.
If Trump is actually going to reshape the U.S. role in the world, that means upending the alliances, trade deals, and financial agreements that have held the globalist narrative together for 80 years.
It means cutting the cord on America’s role as the world’s default leader and lender — and that’s where things get interesting.
What happens if the U.S. steps back from NATO? If China, Russia, and the BRICS nations finally find a way to sidestep the dollar? If the global financial system moves on without America as its foundation? That’s the real gamble.
Hanson’s point? The same institutional forces that will fight to preserve the domestic political order will fight even harder to preserve America’s place in the global system.
Because if Trump is serious — if this isn’t just bluster — then he’s not just threatening Washington insiders. He’s threatening the entire order they’ve spent their careers maintaining. Trump’s narrative requires not just fealty from his own supporters but also the dismantling of the complacent narrative the residents of Washington currently embody.
Midterms come fast. The machine has been erected over generations to outlast men like Trump. The people running it never expected him to get a second shot. They did, in fact, try everything in their arsenal to stop him.
So what can we expect? Well, certainly another 18 months of headline chaos. But will it lead to the biggest, successful controlled demolition in political history?
The economic and market volatility of the past few weeks is just a precursor. Like the producer of any decent Hollywood blockbuster action film would say, “Strap in. This is going to get wild.”
Following Trump’s Congressional address, we see plenty of opportunities… but also plenty of danger.
Frankly, we wouldn’t have it any other way. Grey swan events lurk in outright chaos.
Addison Wiggin,
Grey Swan
P.S. Knowing which stocks to buy and which to avoid is critical when markets get wonky like they have been for the past two weeks.
Volatile markets are where the “winners” get separated from the “losers.” As we mentioned yesterday, we’re finalizing research to capitalize on both outcomes. Stay tuned.
Our buddy Basil writes in:
I recall an exchange with Bloomberg‘s Tom Keene in which I asked, “How many nail bars, nail spas, hair salons, gyms, dog grooming salons, cupcake shops, coffee bars, small batch roasters, and microbreweries do we need before we realize that our economy has a problem?” He didn’t answer me.
Back then, two fabled CEOs were (Chainsaw) Al Dunlap and (Neutron) Jack Welch. (In)famous for their hollowing out of the industrial heartland. A quote attributed to Welch, “The ideal factory would be one on a barge.”
For the last 30+ years, the federal government has been the engine driving our economic bus. It was really the only place where one could find stable employment with benefits. Under Biden, Federal hiring was relentless. Take a look back on some of those Friday jobs numbers.
And, here we are, good man. Here we are, indeed.
Thanks.
The pain of shrinking a government to avoid a prolonged crisis later makes a shorter, more intense crisis likelier in the short term.
To win, Trump and his team will have to control the demolition long enough to have success to tout during the midterm campaign season.
Please send your comments to addison@greyswanfraternity.com
