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Daily Missive

When Decent Performance Meets High Fees, Investors Suffer

Loading ...Andrew Packer

July 2, 2025 • 5 minute, 57 second read


feesmoney managementprivate creditprivate equity

When Decent Performance Meets High Fees, Investors Suffer

“Amateur investors who put their money in low-cost index funds can beat the so-called ‘smart money’ hedge funds charging extraordinary management and performance fees.”

– Warren Buffett

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A cube of $1 million in $1 bills at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Museum of Money
(Source: Andrew Packer)

July 2, 2025 — My adventures as a boots-on-the-ground analyst continue…

Last week, I found myself at the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago.

While I’ve already unpacked my bags, this conference covered a number of topics relevant to the Grey Swan community that we’ll be unpacking in the weeks to come.

That includes the defense industry, to the role that cryptocurrencies can play in your portfolio, and insightful thoughts from keynote speakers such as retired General Stanley McChrystal and investor Ron Baron.

One topic that was making the rounds? The role of private assets.

That’s the term that lumps together private equity and private credit.

I’ve written about private credit before, and have spoken to a number of fund managers in the space, including at this conference and the FutureProof conference.

Simply put, private assets are growing in popularity. But they’re often opaque.

You may know that a private equity firm bought a company, and may even see the headline price paid. But you may not know other deal terms, such as the total debt or the cost of that debt.

That makes it impossible to determine if there’s been a great deal – or if it’s a disaster waiting to happen.

It wasn’t always this way. Before I joined the financial publishing world 16 years ago, I worked for a small private equity firm. They were looking to do “roll-ups,” or take several similar businesses and buy them up.

For instance, a series of local dentist offices could be bought up. Then, by consolidating all the back-office work (marketing, billing, etc.), the firms could enjoy an economy of scale and increase their profitability.

That’s all well and good. However, after interest rates fell to zero, private equity could borrow money much more cheaply. They set their sights higher. And looked for ways to make a faster buck.

Soon, private equity became known for buying up entire companies, even well-known household firms. In 2014, for instance, the Red Lobster restaurant chain was acquired by private equity.

The private equity firm quickly loaded the company up with debt, and sold off the land underneath the restaurant for $1.5 billion.

Quality deteriorated, as cost-cutting measures became the norm. And without the asset of the land, the restaurants couldn’t pay the rent on the former space they used to own. That’s why so many locations have been shut down – and Red Lobster declared bankruptcy earlier in 2024.

That’s private equity today. It’s why many companies you frequent seem to have gotten worse. Because if they’re owned by private equity, they have.

What has the quality deteriorated? It likely comes down to too much capital chasing too few deals.

However, Wall Street isn’t resting on its laurels. They’ve found a new source of capital that could allow them to keep the party going – your retirement account.

Continued Below…

Elon’s “Project Infinity” Could Split America in Two

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Elon Musk is set to roll out what could be the most disruptive technology of our lifetime.

A breakthrough AI project that has the potential to turn Elon into the world’s first trillionaire…

While trapping everyday Americans in an economic death spiral…

As things stand, most Americans are completely unprepared for what’s coming…

That’s why one ex-Wall Street insider has taken it upon himself to help everyday Americans prepare.

He’s identified a potential “backdoor” investment ​in this “project” ​​​that could help you land on the right side of this economic divide.

Full details here.

The Push for Private Assets In Retirement Accounts

Today, several ETFs are getting ready to launch. Their goal? To make it into your 401(k) plan.

It’s all part of a broader integration of financial markets. A move that can make it easier to invest in privately-held companies like SpaceX before they IPO. And to allow retail investors the opportunity to benefit from the higher long-term returns that private assets hold.

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Morningstar CEO Kunal Kapoor makes the case for increased access to private assets.

That’s why many financial executives, including Morningstar CEO Kunal Kapoor, were excited about this growing convergence between private and public markets.

In theory, it’s a good idea. Private equity tends to perform better than the stock market, provided you do so over time.

Private credit, a newer asset class but a rapidly growing one, also shows strong returns, as well as relatively high current income.

And if you have a retirement account, chances are you’re willing to think long-term.

Win-win, right? Not necessarily.

First, these new funds would also come with an incentive structure similar to investing in a hedge fund. That includes a higher fee than a market index ETF – think 2% compared to 0.1% (or less).

Plus, many of these funds have a hurdle rate attached to them as well. Once they clear 5% returns – which, with private credit, can be easily cleared by making deals with cash returns over 5% – additional incentive fees may kick in.

As Vanguard CEO Salim Ramji noted at the Morningstar conference, this is one area that could benefit from the “Vanguard Effect,” – where coming in with lower fees creates more competition across the industry and investors lose less of their returns to fees.

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Morningstar analysts discuss the current fee structure of private assets in further detail, and how there’s significant room for improvement.

Once fees for private asset ETFs get closer to where market index ETFs trade, it may ensure investors benefit. For now, however, the push for private assets in retirement accounts should be met with caution rather than blind enthusiasm.

Ramji also notes that once those fees are knocked down, private assets “can be additive” to portfolio returns. Until then, it’s still a, “good and interesting time to invest in bonds.”

Given that U.S. Treasury bonds still offer relatively high yields over and above inflation for the first time in 15 years – and that the stock market has reflexively shaken off slowing economic data to rebound to new highs – ensuring you have sufficient bond holdings isn’t a bad idea right now.

But skip on the private asset ETFs until they can build a meaningful track record – and until you can see how they perform during a market crisis.

Andrew Packer
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Andrew: For our paid-up members, I’ll have a write-up in the July issue about the latest from the defense industry following conversations with several speakers at the Morningstar conference. Stay tuned!

Plus, tomorrow, Addison and I will take stock of the first half of the year at 11 a.m. ET on Grey Swan Live!

During this week’s Live!, we’ll review the model portfolio and the big trends that have impacted stock prices and the economy during the dizzying first months of the second Trump administration.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com


Off the Rails

September 26, 2025 • Bill Bonner

The gold standard came into being in the 18th century. It got gassed in WWI. Then, after WWII, it was re-established, sort of. The dollar was made the key financial reserve. And the dollar was linked to gold.

Then, in 1971, the last link with gold was cut. Since then, several efforts were made to re-install some sort of guardrails. In the ‘70s, we were personally part of the drive for a Constitutional Amendment that would make deficits illegal. In the ‘80s, our friend Grover Norquist succeeded in getting prospective members of Congress to sign The Pledge, crossing their hearts and hoping to die if they increased taxes

Off the Rails
When Good News is Bad News

September 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

It’s not a secret that Trump’s mercantilism looks backward. Making America great again is inherently nostalgic, fomenting into dreams of resurrected domestic factories, punishing imports, and using the American consumer as so many poker chips in some post-industrial game of five-card stud.

China’s mercantilism since Deng Xiaoping told his subjects that “getting rich is glorious” in 1978 has been looking forward: capturing tomorrow’s industries — AI, quantum computing, green tech — before anyone else can.

Adam Smith warned that mercantilism’s obsession with trade surpluses was “incompatible with the accumulation of wealth for citizens.”

Today, that warning rings fresh. Investors are no longer betting on markets alone, but on their marriage to state power. Lithium in Nevada, chips in Minnesota, sovereign gold in Shanghai — these are the dowries of the new era.

When Good News is Bad News
The Blow-Off Top Is Coming

September 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Soaring AI stocks aren’t just reminiscent of the tech bubble in 1998-2000. Rather, they feel much like a Hollywood remake, nearly beat-for-beat.

Like the fervor for anything with a “.com” after it back then, AI exuberance is pushing stocks to be valued far higher than the reality of what AI will ever be recouped by earnings.

The Blow-Off Top Is Coming
Powell’s Capitulation and the Road Back to Money Printing

September 25, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Remember what happened when they conjured $5 trillion out of thin air during the pandemic? Inflation ripped to 9% — the highest in forty years.

Kicking off the next money-printing cycle from $6.6 trillion instead of $4 trillion — with so much pandemic-era cash still sloshing around the system — all but guarantees double-digit inflation. We’re talking about potential currency destruction on a scale — and at a speed — America has never seen.

Position accordingly.

Powell’s Capitulation and the Road Back to Money Printing