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Ripple Effect

The Labor Market Turns Sour

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

July 2, 2025 • 1 minute, 50 second read


Jobs ReportLabor Marketsurprises

The Labor Market Turns Sour

This morning’s ADP numbers weren’t didn’t just miss expectations for a gain of 98,000 jobs – it was the first negative read since March 2023:

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ADP’s labor data trend shows a slowdown

Several factors are likely at play here. Rising uncertainty over Trump’s tariff and trade policies – even though he’s largely walked those back.

A bigger factor? The rise of AI.

Many big tech companies have been making layoffs this year, citing increased productivity as a reason. For instance, Microsoft just announced another 9,000 in layoffs.

Of course, when an individual company announces layoffs, it’s usually bullish for shares. That company is doing the same – or more – with a smaller headcount. That’s lower costs and higher productivity.

But in a world where every company can lay off a sizable percentage of their staff, we have more unemployed consumers, who tend to cut back on spending.

We haven’t yet seen the full paradox of AI productivity play out – but the trend is there – and growing.

~ Addison

Why Are 21 Billionaires Moving Their Money ASAP?

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Under the surface of the U.S. financial system…

One of the biggest stock market events in 25 years is rapidly unfolding…

The economist who predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis says it will be: “The Biggest Crash of Our Lifetime.”

Starting August 27th — your favorite tech stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and hundreds more could come crashing down…

Cutting the entire tech market by HALF – virtually overnight.

This is why the world’s financial elite are panic-selling stocks at the fastest rate in a decade.

To help you prepare…

Our guest expert is giving you his #1 stock to profit – 100% FREE.

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P.S.: Tomorrow, at 11 a.m. on Grey Swan Live!, Andrew and I will take stock of the first half of the year. We’ll do a comprehensive review of the model portfolio and review the prominent trends that have impacted stock prices and the economy during the dizzying first months of the second Trump administration. Stay tuned… it promises to be a doozy. Paid readers will definitely want to attend.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Off the Rails

September 26, 2025 • Bill Bonner

The gold standard came into being in the 18th century. It got gassed in WWI. Then, after WWII, it was re-established, sort of. The dollar was made the key financial reserve. And the dollar was linked to gold.

Then, in 1971, the last link with gold was cut. Since then, several efforts were made to re-install some sort of guardrails. In the ‘70s, we were personally part of the drive for a Constitutional Amendment that would make deficits illegal. In the ‘80s, our friend Grover Norquist succeeded in getting prospective members of Congress to sign The Pledge, crossing their hearts and hoping to die if they increased taxes

Off the Rails
When Good News is Bad News

September 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

It’s not a secret that Trump’s mercantilism looks backward. Making America great again is inherently nostalgic, fomenting into dreams of resurrected domestic factories, punishing imports, and using the American consumer as so many poker chips in some post-industrial game of five-card stud.

China’s mercantilism since Deng Xiaoping told his subjects that “getting rich is glorious” in 1978 has been looking forward: capturing tomorrow’s industries — AI, quantum computing, green tech — before anyone else can.

Adam Smith warned that mercantilism’s obsession with trade surpluses was “incompatible with the accumulation of wealth for citizens.”

Today, that warning rings fresh. Investors are no longer betting on markets alone, but on their marriage to state power. Lithium in Nevada, chips in Minnesota, sovereign gold in Shanghai — these are the dowries of the new era.

When Good News is Bad News
The Blow-Off Top Is Coming

September 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Soaring AI stocks aren’t just reminiscent of the tech bubble in 1998-2000. Rather, they feel much like a Hollywood remake, nearly beat-for-beat.

Like the fervor for anything with a “.com” after it back then, AI exuberance is pushing stocks to be valued far higher than the reality of what AI will ever be recouped by earnings.

The Blow-Off Top Is Coming
Powell’s Capitulation and the Road Back to Money Printing

September 25, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Remember what happened when they conjured $5 trillion out of thin air during the pandemic? Inflation ripped to 9% — the highest in forty years.

Kicking off the next money-printing cycle from $6.6 trillion instead of $4 trillion — with so much pandemic-era cash still sloshing around the system — all but guarantees double-digit inflation. We’re talking about potential currency destruction on a scale — and at a speed — America has never seen.

Position accordingly.

Powell’s Capitulation and the Road Back to Money Printing