GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Grey Swan Forecasts
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Grey Swan Forecasts
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2026 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Ripple Effect

The Labor Market Turns Sour

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

July 2, 2025 • 1 minute, 50 second read


Jobs ReportLabor Marketsurprises

The Labor Market Turns Sour

This morning’s ADP numbers weren’t didn’t just miss expectations for a gain of 98,000 jobs – it was the first negative read since March 2023:

Turn Your Images On

ADP’s labor data trend shows a slowdown

Several factors are likely at play here. Rising uncertainty over Trump’s tariff and trade policies – even though he’s largely walked those back.

A bigger factor? The rise of AI.

Many big tech companies have been making layoffs this year, citing increased productivity as a reason. For instance, Microsoft just announced another 9,000 in layoffs.

Of course, when an individual company announces layoffs, it’s usually bullish for shares. That company is doing the same – or more – with a smaller headcount. That’s lower costs and higher productivity.

But in a world where every company can lay off a sizable percentage of their staff, we have more unemployed consumers, who tend to cut back on spending.

We haven’t yet seen the full paradox of AI productivity play out – but the trend is there – and growing.

~ Addison

Why Are 21 Billionaires Moving Their Money ASAP?

Turn On Your Images.

Under the surface of the U.S. financial system…

One of the biggest stock market events in 25 years is rapidly unfolding…

The economist who predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis says it will be: “The Biggest Crash of Our Lifetime.”

Starting August 27th — your favorite tech stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and hundreds more could come crashing down…

Cutting the entire tech market by HALF – virtually overnight.

This is why the world’s financial elite are panic-selling stocks at the fastest rate in a decade.

To help you prepare…

Our guest expert is giving you his #1 stock to profit – 100% FREE.

Turn Your Images On

P.S.: Tomorrow, at 11 a.m. on Grey Swan Live!, Andrew and I will take stock of the first half of the year. We’ll do a comprehensive review of the model portfolio and review the prominent trends that have impacted stock prices and the economy during the dizzying first months of the second Trump administration. Stay tuned… it promises to be a doozy. Paid readers will definitely want to attend.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Slaughterhouse-Five

February 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Mustafa Suleyman, who leads Microsoft’s AI initiatives, told the Financial Times that most white-collar professional tasks could be automated within 12 to 18 months.

Lawyers, accountants, marketers, project managers — anything related to desk work faces compression.

Challenger data showed 7,624 January layoffs attributed directly to AI — about 7% of the month’s total. Since 2023, AI has been linked to nearly 79,500 announced job cuts. Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Byrd cautioned clients that measurable macroeconomic impact may lag several years.

In Silicon Valley, Mercor quietly hired tens of thousands of highly credentialed contractors at $45 to $250 per hour to train large language models for OpenAI and Anthropic.

Slaughterhouse-Five
Stealth Correction

February 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite a stock market within 3% of its all-time highs, your portfolio likely feels a bigger pinch right now.

Fears of high spending on AI are leading to another pullback in the market’s biggest names. The Mag 7 stocks are collectively 10% off their peak, and now in correction territory.

Stealth Correction
A Tale of Two Economies

February 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Private education and health services accounted for the bulk of job creation over the past year.

Over the last twelve months, that category added roughly 780,000 positions. Excluding those gains, the economy shed approximately 350,000 jobs.

Manufacturing, the purported object of Trump’s tariff strategy, declined by about 100,000 in 2025. Transportation and warehousing fell by more than 100,000. Professional and business services contracted. Information and financial activities declined.

Federal employment dropped again in January, down 42,000. The civilian federal workforce now sits roughly 11% below its October 2024 peak.

A Tale of Two Economies
S&P Earnings Yield Hit 100 Year Lows

February 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Most investors are familiar with the price-to-earnings, or PE, ratio. But what if you invert that, and divide earnings by price? You get what’s  called the “earnings yield.”

Earnings yield on the S&P 500 is near a 100-year low.

S&P Earnings Yield Hit 100 Year Lows