“The American flag has not been planted on foreign soil to acquire more territory, but for humanity’s sake.”
–President William McKinley
May 1, 2025 — King of Kings Ozymandias am I. If any want to know how great I am and where I lie, let him outdo me in my work.”
—Diodorus Siculus
Nations can go on…and on. The Chinese are still Chinese. The Turks are still in Turkey. And the French will always be with us.
But empires rise and fall, with a lifespan of only about 250 years, on average. A visit to the imperial graveyard would show us tombstones of the Assyrians, the Medes, the Ashanti, the Aztec, Austro-Hungarians…and so on…and perhaps even the “two vast and trunkless legs of stone” described by Shelley. They spoke different languages. They had different trade and immigration policies. Some were rich. Others were poor.
What they all have in common is that they are all dead. They sleep among the shades. They are all gone. Finished.
How do empires die? The subject has been studied for many years. By historians. By poets. By religious nuts and scientific nerds. Diodorus was on the case in the 1st century BC. He claimed to have found the inscription above on the tomb of Ramses II in Egypt, later inspiring Shelley’s famous poem.
And while there is no single answer as to what does them in, opinions converge on the two main empire killers…money and military. Too little of the former; too much of the latter. In some cases, natural or demographic disasters play a role. But usually, the death of an empire has man-made causes.
‘Man-made’ disasters need leaders. Alexander led his troops to the Ganges and to the Nile…thus installing a Macedonian dynasty in Egypt that Diodorus, a Greek from Sicily, was able to visit. He got there just in time. The last of the Ptolemaic rulers was Cleopatra, who made the mistake of taking Marc Antony for a lover and ally. Ms. Cleopatra might be described as a ‘tool of history,’ helping to put an end to the group that had ruled Egypt for 275 years. Then, when Octavian defeated Antony at the battle of Actium, it was all over, not just for her and Antony, but for the Greeks in Egypt. Another empire — Roman — took over in 30 BC.
Which brings us, like fleas to a dog, to our own Donald J. Trump. He is the Big Man…the Caesar of today. L’etat..c’est lui!
We know what he says he is trying to do. His supporters (some of them) think he was spared by God to do it. But God thinks big. Long term. In historical terms, not limited to the election cycle. And at this stage of America’s empire journey — after nearly 250 years of sweeping all before it — we have to wonder…what is Donald J. Trump really meant to do? Take it to even greater glory? Or, to fulfill the natural life-cycle of all empires…that is, to help it into the past, not the future?
If America were to develop into an even bigger, stronger empire it would first have to avoid going broke. That is a relatively obvious threat…and one that is relatively easy to avoid. From the chief executive’s point of view, he would simply insist that henceforth outflows match inflows — something a hundred million American households are able to do every year. He might even quote our old friend Sid Taylor in warning: ‘When your outflow exceeds your income, your upkeep is your downfall.’
Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said the administration’s goal was to shift resources away from the government so as to give the private sector a chance to grow. Were he really trying to take the empire to greater heights, Donald Trump would make that his Number One priority and veto any spending that added to US debt. Then, the strength of the economy might power the empire to further success.
Of course, it would be up to Congress to decide where to cut. This, too, would be easy, in theory…though politically difficult. Small cuts to domestic spending programs, including means-testing social welfare/pension/medical care benefits, would be enough to bring homeland spending into line.
Easier still, the military/overseas spending could be cut in half — a savings of some $500 billion — simply by focusing on an America First homeland defense. But in the press Friday was this remarkable headline, the Daily Express:
Trump drops ‘Crimea will stay with Russia’ bombshell and urges Ukraine to give in
What is amazing about this is not that Crimea should stay with Russia. It was originally annexed from the Turks by Catherine the Great in 1783…about the same time as the Americans ‘annexed’ the colonies from the British empire.
What is shocking is that an American president should think it is his place to decide the issue. Who elected him president of the Crimeans? Does he speak any of the major languages of the peninsula? Could he find it on a map? Why then does he think it’s up to him to choose the government?
This is the kind of ‘imperial overstretch’ that the gods punish. Along with big increases to the military budget…trade wars…chaos, incompetence…and deficits headed towards $2 trillion annually — it begins to look as though the real purpose of Team Trump were to destroy the empire, not to make it great again.
Could it be that Mr. Trump has unwittingly become a tool of history too?
More to come…
Regards,
Bill Bonner
Bonner Private Research & Grey Swan
P.S. from Addison: For some reason, correspondents to the Grey Swan comment line are compelled to write lines of poetry. My favorite was short on the day after “Liberation Day” defending Trump’s tariff policy:
If not him, then who?
If not now, then when?
This morning, Alan S. added a few lines himself, starting with some context:
I have been a trader in the market since turned 21 in September 1952.
Things were different then compared to now.
Here is my take on now:
Automation is vexation
AI is as bad
Cybernetics doth puzzle me
And Elon usk drives me mad
Have an awful nice day.
“Since 1971,” writes member Carol D. more directly to the point,“Wall Street and the Fed have had full control of the currency. This freedom has encouraged the banks to gamble with the money and take money away from the workers, and make the rich richer. The banks were bailed out after 2008, which is when this financial system died.
“What I think we are witnessing is the collateral damage of the corporations, such as Black Rock, the banks, and the billionaires who are developing A.I. are doing whatever they can to take control of the next financial system as they continue to rob the Middle Class.
“Workers will no longer be needed, but serfs will be in high demand for the next financial system, which will look like neo-feudalism.”
Your thoughts?
Add them to the mix here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
