Told You So: Trump’s Top Adviser Just Confirmed the Reset

“I regard reduction in federal spending as one of the most important issues of this campaign. In my opinion, it is the most direct and effective contribution that government can make to business.”

-Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932

September 5, 2025 — It’s been about a month of rapid-fire tariff moves and counterpunches—each more unexpected than the last.

Make no mistake: what we’re witnessing is likely to go down as one of the most pivotal events in modern U.S. economic history. The consequences will extend far beyond a routine trade war or recession.

But as Matt Smith recently outlined in his Trump Reset thesis, there may be a method to the madness.

And just weeks ago, we may have gotten confirmation.

On April 7, Stephen Miran—Trump’s top economic adviser—publicly articulated the reset during a speech at the Hudson Institute.

The author of A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, Miran is one of the most important figures in the administration today. Published just days after Trump’s victory last November, the paper outlines a framework for America’s next monetary reset—dubbed the “Mar-a-Lago Accord.”

Turn Your Images On

Source: Hudson Bay Capital

But let’s face it—most people don’t read economic papers. That’s why Miran’s April-7 speech (transcript on WhiteHouse.gov) was so significant. It laid out the strategy—and the thinking behind Trump’s Reset—in plain terms for a broader audience.

Now, at first glance, some of what Miran said probably didn’t make much sense to the uninitiated.

For example, Miran argued that foreign countries should open their wallets just for the privilege of using the dollar.

Why would they do that, you might wonder? Because in Miran’s view, having the world’s reserve currency is a burden the U.S. shoulders for everyone else—and that the rest of the world should have to pay for.

Note: In reality, of course, other countries are already paying. They buy Treasuries, absorb U.S. inflation, and turn a blind eye to the U.S. government’s mountain of debt.

So yes—on the surface, parts of the speech sound over the top. But once you view it through the lens of the Trump Reset, it all starts to make sense.

The Bind

Let’s be clear: the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency gives the U.S. government an exorbitant privilege—the power to run massive deficits, borrow cheaply, and project influence worldwide. There’s no real debate about it. It’s the only reason Washington can get away with a $36.7 trillion mountain of debt.

But there’s another side to it—and it comes in the form of something called Triffin’s Dilemma.

Named after Belgian economist Robert Triffin, this paradox occurs when a country’s currency is also the world’s reserve currency—like the U.S. dollar. The problem? To meet global demand for dollars, the U.S. must run trade deficits by exporting more dollars than goods and services. This keeps the world economy running, but it hollows out U.S. industry and fuels debt.

Note: If you ever wondered why the U.S. economy has become so financialized, addicted to debt, and propped up by “services”—that’s why.

And therein lies the bind…

If the U.S. stops running deficits, the world risks a dollar shortage—slowing global growth and nudging countries toward alternative reserve currencies. That shift would erode long-term demand for Treasuries and chip away at the dollar’s dominance.

But if the U.S. keeps running deficits, we’re back to the same old story: ballooning debt, mounting interest payments, and a hollowed-out manufacturing base.

Miran didn’t get into the weeds of Triffin’s Dilemma in his speech, but if you’ve read his paper—or Matt’s Trump’s Monetary Reset report—it’s clear that’s why he refers to the U.S. dollar and Treasuries as “costly global public goods” America provides to the world.

The Solution

Miran’s solution to Triffin’s Dilemma?

“Burden-sharing at the global level.” I quote:

In my view, to continue providing these twin global public goods, there needs to be improved burden-sharing at the global level.

(…)

The best outcome is one in which America continues to create global peace and prosperity and remain the reserve provider, and other countries not only participate in reaping the benefits, but they also participate in bearing the costs. By improving burden sharing, we can enhance resilience, and preserve the global security and trading systems for many decades into the future.

What does this burden sharing actually look like, according to Miran? Here’s a quick rundown of his ideas:

Accept tariffs without retaliation – Let U.S. tariffs stand, generating revenue for Washington.
Open their markets – End unfair trade practices and buy more American goods.
Increase defense spending – Procure more U.S.-made weapons and equipment.
Build factories in the U.S. – Set up local production and avoid tariffs altogether.
Write checks to the Treasury – Yes, really. Direct financial contributions to help the U.S. fund “global public goods.”

As far-fetched as some of this may sound, Miran is outlining a radical plan to flip the U.S. dollar’s reserve status from a burden into a bargaining chip. To turn America’s towering debt from an embarrassment into leverage. And to reorient the entire global economic structure in Washington’s favor—while they still can.

Now, if you read through Miran’s 40-page paper, you’ll quickly realize he left a lot of other ingredients out (some of which actually make the plan far more realistic). It’s a speech, not a doctoral thesis, after all.

If you don’t feel like combing through a densely written white paper, Matt has already done the work of connecting the dots—some of which weren’t even spelled out explicitly in the original report (because outright stating them might spark panic). As Matt put it:

Succeed or fail, Trump’s plan will impact all of us and our investments. I confess I’m delighted Team Trump sees the problem… has a plan to avoid the worst, and catapult the U.S. to new prosperity. But what they need to do will not come without pain. A LOT of pain.

Like it or not, we’re living through one of the most economically fascinating chapters in modern history.

Regards,

Lau Vegys
Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: “Bitcoin is more speculative than Ethereum,” declared Ian King on Grey Swan Live! yesterday. It was only one of the provocative statements he made while walking us through the wild west of crypto assets yesterday. Thank you, if you were in attendance. The full reply can be found on the Video Archives section of our website for Grey Swan members, here.

Spoiler alert: The “use-case” for Ethereum as the backbone of a free market in tokenized assets is quite convincing. And compelling. You owe it to yourself to understand decentralized finance (DeFi) now. “It’s as powerful a disruptive innovation in banking as Netflix was to Blockbuster in the movie industry,” Ian asserts.

We’re already putting together ideas for next week’s Grey Swan Live – sign up here to become a member if you aren’t already so you can get the full insights from our weekly guests.

If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.

-Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932

September 5, 2025 — It’s been about a month of rapid-fire tariff moves and counterpunches—each more unexpected than the last.

But as Matt Smith recently outlined in his Trump Reset thesis, there may be a method to the madness.

And just weeks ago, we may have gotten confirmation.

On April 7, Stephen Miran—Trump’s top economic adviser—publicly articulated the reset during a speech at the Hudson Institute.

Turn Your Images On

Source: Hudson Bay Capital

Now, at first glance, some of what Miran said probably didn’t make much sense to the uninitiated.

For example, Miran argued that foreign countries should open their wallets just for the privilege of using the dollar.

Note: In reality, of course, other countries are already paying. They buy Treasuries, absorb U.S. inflation, and turn a blind eye to the U.S. government’s mountain of debt.

So yes—on the surface, parts of the speech sound over the top. But once you view it through the lens of the Trump Reset, it all starts to make sense.

The Bind

But there’s another side to it—and it comes in the form of something called Triffin’s Dilemma.

Note: If you ever wondered why the U.S. economy has become so financialized, addicted to debt, and propped up by “services”—that’s why.

And therein lies the bind…

But if the U.S. keeps running deficits, we’re back to the same old story: ballooning debt, mounting interest payments, and a hollowed-out manufacturing base.

The Solution

Miran’s solution to Triffin’s Dilemma?

“Burden-sharing at the global level.” I quote:

In my view, to continue providing these twin global public goods, there needs to be improved burden-sharing at the global level.

(…)

The best outcome is one in which America continues to create global peace and prosperity and remain the reserve provider, and other countries not only participate in reaping the benefits, but they also participate in bearing the costs. By improving burden sharing, we can enhance resilience, and preserve the global security and trading systems for many decades into the future.

What does this burden sharing actually look like, according to Miran? Here’s a quick rundown of his ideas:

Accept tariffs without retaliation – Let U.S. tariffs stand, generating revenue for Washington.
Open their markets – End unfair trade practices and buy more American goods.
Increase defense spending – Procure more U.S.-made weapons and equipment.
Build factories in the U.S. – Set up local production and avoid tariffs altogether.
Write checks to the Treasury – Yes, really. Direct financial contributions to help the U.S. fund “global public goods.”

Succeed or fail, Trump’s plan will impact all of us and our investments. I confess I’m delighted Team Trump sees the problem… has a plan to avoid the worst, and catapult the U.S. to new prosperity. But what they need to do will not come without pain. A LOT of pain.

Like it or not, we’re living through one of the most economically fascinating chapters in modern history.

Regards,

Lau Vegys
Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

We’re already putting together ideas for next week’s Grey Swan Live – sign up here to become a member if you aren’t already so you can get the full insights from our weekly guests.

If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

Relative to GDP, the net international investment claim on the U.S. economy was 20% in 2003. It had swollen to 65% by 2023. Practically every type of American company, bond, or real estate asset now has some degree of foreign ownership.

But it’s even worse than that. As the federal deficit has pumped up the GDP figures, and made a larger share of the economy dependent on government spending, the quality and sustainability of GDP have deteriorated. So, foreigners, to the extent they are paying attention, are accumulating claims on an economy that has been eroded by inefficient, government-directed spending and “investments.” Why should foreign creditors maintain confidence in the integrity of these paper claims? Only to the extent that their economies are even worse off. And in the case of China, that’s probably true.

As global government interest expense climbed, gold quietly followed it higher. The IIF estimates that interest costs on government debt now run at nearly $4.9 trillion annually. Over the same span, gold prices have tracked that burden almost one-for-one.

Silver has recently gone along for the ride, with even more enthusiasm.

Since early 2023, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 150 basis points, touching levels not seen since the 1990s.

Over that same period, gold prices have surged about 135%, while silver is up roughly 175%. Zoom out two years, and the divergence becomes starker still: gold up 114%, silver up 178%, while the S&P 500 gained 44%.

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, the average retail investor has about a 70% allocation to stocks. That’s well over the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. Even a 60/40 allocation ignores real estate, gold, collectibles, and private assets.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

Silver has recently gone along for the ride, with even more enthusiasm.

Since early 2023, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 150 basis points, touching levels not seen since the 1990s.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.