Coming out of the 2022 bear market, the S&P has behaved like it found religion and a fresh pair of lungs. Even this year’s so-called Liberation Day tantrum — which briefly had CNBC anchors fanning themselves — now reads like a speed bump someone painted bright yellow to justify their existence.
How far have stocks run in three years? Far enough to brush up against the record books.
Over a three-year period, stocks have had their best run since the dotcom boom. (Source: Kobeissi Letter)
Only the late-stage dot-com fever dreams did better in recent memory — back when analysts were valuing companies by the number of mammals breathing inside the office.
For the moment, stocks appear unsinkable, unslappable, and perhaps uninsurable. But this is what generational technology shifts do: they take a kernel of genuine innovation and inflate a decade of growth into a 36-month highlight reel. We’ve seen this movie. It premiered in 1999 and closed with adults crying into their PalmPilots.
And just as the internet continued reshaping the world long after Pets.com curled up and died, AI will keep marching on whether or not today’s multiples survive a stiff breeze. The technology is real. The valuations, however, will eventually need to stop hyperventilating and sit down with a glass of water.
Sooner or later, the adults have to come back into the room.
~ Addison
P.S. Despite growing concern in the economy today – stubborn inflation, and structural government overspending, sagging employment and consumer confidence – markets are likely to rally into the end of the year. More than the seasonal Santa Claus Rally, traders are going to huff on a Fed rate cut and the prospect of a new accommodating Fed chair. Trump claimed this morning he’s picked his successor to Jerome Powell.
Yesterday, in Grey Swan Live! with Dan Denning we covered a litany of structural challenges facing the economy and markets in 2026 including the end of Quatitative Tightening (QT), the unraveling of the Yen Carry Trade and a stubborn flattening of the M2 “cash curve”.
If you can believe it, we covered all thaat that ground and more – the role of Dollar 2.0 in financing the national debt, the 2026 outlook for oil and the energy markets and the marginal utility of debt-soaked AI companies – and kept the conversation interesting! Worth a listen if you’ve got a minute. The replay is right here:
If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
