The Truth About Gold

August 22, 2025 • 1 minute, 16 second read

If you’re a regular Grey Swan reader, you already know the value in gold.

But in case you’re still on the sideline… or know someone who is…

This is the chart to share:

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As measured against gold’s purchasing power, stocks have lost ground against the metal since 1971. (Source: TradingView)

Measured in gold, stocks have underperformed the metal since the U.S. left the remnants of the gold standard in 1971.

You can see a small blip in stocks around 2000, reflecting not only the dotcom bubble, but gold hitting a generational low.

Sure, if you only held Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA over the past 15 years, you may have fared better. Different timeframes will lead to different results.

But it goes to show that even though stocks are the best game in town, there’s still a place for gold in your portfolio.

And right now, gold mining stocks are starting to break higher, buoyed by higher earnings and cash flow potential for quarters to come.

~ Andrew

P.S. The stock market may soon undergo a “Quickening” event, where stocks soar as several technologies accelerate from here.

If that’s the case, stocks may pick up some slack in the short-term. And investors in the right stocks can make huge gains.

But when it comes time to take some profits, consider investing some of it into gold — the metal continues to stand the test of time.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our fiscal reality is clearly unsustainable. With the passage of the “Big Beautiful” budget reconciliation bill, Congress has already given itself permission to grow the national debt to $41 trillion. Interest payments on the national debt are already the second-most-expensive item on the federal budget, behind only Social Security (and ahead of defense spending). As the national debt continues to grow, debt service will become our number one spending obligation. History suggests it’s only a matter of time until we hit that limit and, unless things change, once again raise the debt ceiling. This cannot continue indefinitely.

Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?

When Trust Runs Thin, Markets… Rally?

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Bloomberg’s September survey of economists found that the majority are “somewhat or extremely worried” that the Fed’s decisions will be influenced by political loyalties.

If that happens, borrowing costs for the U.S. government rise as risk premia creep into Treasury markets.

Public confidence is already threadbare.

In 2001, 74% of Americans trusted Alan Greenspan to do the right thing. In 2025, only 37% say the same of Jerome Powell. For the first time, trust in Trump to manage the economy is higher than trust in the Fed chair.

The Tech Meltup, Exhibit A

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Overall, the S&P 500’s RSI hit 70, the low side of overbought territory — for the entire index.

“Fed rate cuts tomorrow are likely priced in,” writes portfolio director, Andrew Packer, “it may not trigger a selloff, but at these levels, investors may be disappointed with a .25 cut.”

Tech investors will remain bullish on the prospect of multiple rate cuts over the next few meetings.

But be wary of any indication the Fed tries to rebuff Trump’s overtures and, God forbid, remain independent tomorrow.

Plowshares into Swords

September 15, 2025 • Bill Bonner

The empire is in decline. Demographics, regulatory tightening, fake money and the mis-allocation of trillions of dollars (much of it on pointless wars) have sapped the vitality of the economy. The Federal government gets bigger and bigger, but there is no longer enough output to pay for it.

The interest on the debt alone takes more more than a trillion dollars a year. The US faces a financial crisis. And for the first time in history, our children face a poorer future.

The welfare state model no longer works; the center — consensual democracy — wobbles towards the extremes. What to do? Beat our plowshares into swords?