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Ripple Effect

The Truth About Gold

Loading ...Andrew Packer

August 22, 2025 • 1 minute, 16 second read


goldinflation-adjusted returns

The Truth About Gold

If you’re a regular Grey Swan reader, you already know the value in gold.

But in case you’re still on the sideline… or know someone who is…

This is the chart to share:

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As measured against gold’s purchasing power, stocks have lost ground against the metal since 1971. (Source: TradingView)

Measured in gold, stocks have underperformed the metal since the U.S. left the remnants of the gold standard in 1971.

You can see a small blip in stocks around 2000, reflecting not only the dotcom bubble, but gold hitting a generational low.

Sure, if you only held Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA over the past 15 years, you may have fared better. Different timeframes will lead to different results.

But it goes to show that even though stocks are the best game in town, there’s still a place for gold in your portfolio.

And right now, gold mining stocks are starting to break higher, buoyed by higher earnings and cash flow potential for quarters to come.

~ Andrew

P.S. The stock market may soon undergo a “Quickening” event, where stocks soar as several technologies accelerate from here.

If that’s the case, stocks may pick up some slack in the short-term. And investors in the right stocks can make huge gains.

But when it comes time to take some profits, consider investing some of it into gold — the metal continues to stand the test of time.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.


The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed
Waiting for Jerome

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning,  the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

Waiting for Jerome
Deep Value Going Global in 2026

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

Deep Value Going Global in 2026
Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper