The Trend Is Your Friend

The old Wall Street saying, “The trend is your friend,” has played out beautifully over the past few months—at least in the stock market.

However, on Main Street, consumers are starting to show signs of tapping out. And as they do, the trend on Wall Street could reverse suddenly.

One source of alternative data showing consumer stress? Google search trends:

Turn Your Images On

Search words and phrases reveal a surge in consumer anxiety over basic needs. (Source: Google)

These are the folks who have taken a hit in recent years, thanks to the massive income inequality that, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the Federal Reserve exacerbates.

Consumers who never bought assets like stocks, houses, or gold are lucky to hold steady in good times – but they risk losing it all in a recession.

With the Federal Reserve making big changes in the monetary system and starting to cut rates again, asset owners like shareholders and homeowners will benefit.

Cash-strapped, debt-addled consumers? They’ll be the first to take the hit from an economic slowdown and the next wave of inflation.

~ Addison

P.S.Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic was a powerhouse. We covered the shocking assassination of Charlie Kirk and the #1 forecast we made for 2025: the aggressive rise in political violence.

Then we got down to business, turning to Trump’s Shadow Fed and political pressure to cut rates into inflation.

Portfolio Director Andrew Packer showed attendees how the Grey Swan model portfolio is uniquely positioned for interest rate cuts and why income-generating stocks could see big returns as interest rates on bonds decline.

Mark Jeftovic took us on a deep dive into the crypto market, showcasing a number of cryptocurrency projects that have real-world use cases and could see a big move in the months ahead as the Fed kicks off interest rate cuts. Paid-up readers can access the replay here.

If you’re not a paid member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you can review the benefits of becoming one here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

The old Wall Street saying, “The trend is your friend,” has played out beautifully over the past few months—at least in the stock market.

However, on Main Street, consumers are starting to show signs of tapping out. And as they do, the trend on Wall Street could reverse suddenly.

One source of alternative data showing consumer stress? Google search trends:

Turn Your Images On

Search words and phrases reveal a surge in consumer anxiety over basic needs. (Source: Google)

These are the folks who have taken a hit in recent years, thanks to the massive income inequality that, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the Federal Reserve exacerbates.

Consumers who never bought assets like stocks, houses, or gold are lucky to hold steady in good times – but they risk losing it all in a recession.

With the Federal Reserve making big changes in the monetary system and starting to cut rates again, asset owners like shareholders and homeowners will benefit.

Cash-strapped, debt-addled consumers? They’ll be the first to take the hit from an economic slowdown and the next wave of inflation.

~ Addison

Then we got down to business, turning to Trump’s Shadow Fed and political pressure to cut rates into inflation.

If you’re not a paid member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you can review the benefits of becoming one here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

U.S. government debt is edging closer to the $38 trillion mark — now well over 120% of GDP. That puts the U.S. in the same league as basket-case economies like Venezuela, Sudan, and Lebanon. Not exactly the kind of company you want to keep.

But it makes sense: history shows that once a country crosses this threshold, things start to break — and it’s rarely just one thing. I’ve talked a lot about that in the past.

An admission: we’re mildly obsessed with the private credit markets.

When there’s a bull market in everything — AI stocks, financials, rare earths, gold and silver — it helps to keep an eye on the plumbing.

One chart tells the tale: since 2015, bank loans to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) — think private equity and private-credit funds — have soared nearly 300%.

Consumer loans, residential mortgages, commercial real estate? Flat as Kansas. Post-2008, Basel III and Dodd-Frank made leveraged and middle-market lending so capital-intensive that banks stepped back.

Gold dropped nearly 2% yesterday. But with the massive increase in fiat currencies globally, that’s an opportunity to buy more cheaply.

With that much cash sloshing around the system, the “debasement trade” is a go.

Trillions of dollars are already being transferred and tracked on the tokenized rails that Visa, JPMorgan, Mastercard and other major financial institutions plan to scale globally in the next 12 months.

Meaning, there’s no longer such a thing as “crypto vs. the banks.”

Because the same financial giants that crypto once tried to replace are taking the best parts of blockchain — speed, transparency and programmability — and fusing them into the system they already control.

And as each domino falls, it brings us closer to a world where money moves as easily as data.

It means that by the end of 2025, digital dollars could settle more value than PayPal ever has.

So if you’re still treating digital money as “the future,” you’re already a step behind.