The Trend Is Your Friend

The old Wall Street saying, “The trend is your friend,” has played out beautifully over the past few months—at least in the stock market.

However, on Main Street, consumers are starting to show signs of tapping out. And as they do, the trend on Wall Street could reverse suddenly.

One source of alternative data showing consumer stress? Google search trends:

Turn Your Images On

Search words and phrases reveal a surge in consumer anxiety over basic needs. (Source: Google)

These are the folks who have taken a hit in recent years, thanks to the massive income inequality that, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the Federal Reserve exacerbates.

Consumers who never bought assets like stocks, houses, or gold are lucky to hold steady in good times – but they risk losing it all in a recession.

With the Federal Reserve making big changes in the monetary system and starting to cut rates again, asset owners like shareholders and homeowners will benefit.

Cash-strapped, debt-addled consumers? They’ll be the first to take the hit from an economic slowdown and the next wave of inflation.

~ Addison

P.S.Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic was a powerhouse. We covered the shocking assassination of Charlie Kirk and the #1 forecast we made for 2025: the aggressive rise in political violence.

Then we got down to business, turning to Trump’s Shadow Fed and political pressure to cut rates into inflation.

Portfolio Director Andrew Packer showed attendees how the Grey Swan model portfolio is uniquely positioned for interest rate cuts and why income-generating stocks could see big returns as interest rates on bonds decline.

Mark Jeftovic took us on a deep dive into the crypto market, showcasing a number of cryptocurrency projects that have real-world use cases and could see a big move in the months ahead as the Fed kicks off interest rate cuts. Paid-up readers can access the replay here.

If you’re not a paid member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you can review the benefits of becoming one here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

The old Wall Street saying, “The trend is your friend,” has played out beautifully over the past few months—at least in the stock market.

However, on Main Street, consumers are starting to show signs of tapping out. And as they do, the trend on Wall Street could reverse suddenly.

One source of alternative data showing consumer stress? Google search trends:

Turn Your Images On

Search words and phrases reveal a surge in consumer anxiety over basic needs. (Source: Google)

These are the folks who have taken a hit in recent years, thanks to the massive income inequality that, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the Federal Reserve exacerbates.

Consumers who never bought assets like stocks, houses, or gold are lucky to hold steady in good times – but they risk losing it all in a recession.

With the Federal Reserve making big changes in the monetary system and starting to cut rates again, asset owners like shareholders and homeowners will benefit.

Cash-strapped, debt-addled consumers? They’ll be the first to take the hit from an economic slowdown and the next wave of inflation.

~ Addison

Then we got down to business, turning to Trump’s Shadow Fed and political pressure to cut rates into inflation.

If you’re not a paid member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you can review the benefits of becoming one here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Altman’s claim is that not only will people get more done with less with AI, they will be happier because their work is easier and…more fun. This follows a report from Anthropic, responsible for the Claude AI, that said AI increases productivity.

I will say I’m skeptical. But we’ve been told the nature of exponential change is that it comes at you faster than you can measure or observe. And if that is true, it will have consequences in 2026 for employees and investors. Big ones.

For employees–those who are not replaced by automated processes and robots–it will mean secure employment and higher wages. A small number of winners getting richer.

American consumers don’t feel – or are at least unaware of – monetary nuance. They’re just getting the bill.

Trump declared last night that “affordability doesn’t mean anything to anybody,” dismissing the term as a “Democrat scam”— this despite recently proclaiming
himself the “Affordability President” on Truth Social.

That’s the current state of political messaging on cost-of-living: part whiplash, part vaudeville. But voters aren’t confused. Grocery prices are still 30% higher than 2020. Tariffs add daily friction. Utilities, rent, houses, tuition, healthcare continue their daily grind upward.

During a Fed rate cut cycle, bond yields follow, which typically means bond prices tick higher. If you buy bonds now, you’ll be getting in ahead of the crowd.

And if this tech wreck shapes up anything like 2000-01, investors will want to get out fast. Despite the debt mess in Washington, bonds will again look “safe.”

One minor bonus: if you buy now, you’ll lock in higher yields before the next Fed rate cut, which is expected to come one week from today.

But Green is describing more than just a new calculation. He’s talking about a new form of misery.’ It’s a poverty where you may still have most of the accoutrements of middle-class life. But your relationship with the financial elite has changed: you are indentured to the credit industry — for life.

For employees–those who are not replaced by automated processes and robots–it will mean secure employment and higher wages. A small number of winners getting richer.

American consumers don’t feel – or are at least unaware of – monetary nuance. They’re just getting the bill.

During a Fed rate cut cycle, bond yields follow, which typically means bond prices tick higher. If you buy bonds now, you’ll be getting in ahead of the crowd.

And if this tech wreck shapes up anything like 2000-01, investors will want to get out fast. Despite the debt mess in Washington, bonds will again look “safe.”

One minor bonus: if you buy now, you’ll lock in higher yields before the next Fed rate cut, which is expected to come one week from today.