The Trend Is Your Friend

The old Wall Street saying, “The trend is your friend,” has played out beautifully over the past few months—at least in the stock market.

However, on Main Street, consumers are starting to show signs of tapping out. And as they do, the trend on Wall Street could reverse suddenly.

One source of alternative data showing consumer stress? Google search trends:

Turn Your Images On

Search words and phrases reveal a surge in consumer anxiety over basic needs. (Source: Google)

These are the folks who have taken a hit in recent years, thanks to the massive income inequality that, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the Federal Reserve exacerbates.

Consumers who never bought assets like stocks, houses, or gold are lucky to hold steady in good times – but they risk losing it all in a recession.

With the Federal Reserve making big changes in the monetary system and starting to cut rates again, asset owners like shareholders and homeowners will benefit.

Cash-strapped, debt-addled consumers? They’ll be the first to take the hit from an economic slowdown and the next wave of inflation.

~ Addison

P.S.Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic was a powerhouse. We covered the shocking assassination of Charlie Kirk and the #1 forecast we made for 2025: the aggressive rise in political violence.

Then we got down to business, turning to Trump’s Shadow Fed and political pressure to cut rates into inflation.

Portfolio Director Andrew Packer showed attendees how the Grey Swan model portfolio is uniquely positioned for interest rate cuts and why income-generating stocks could see big returns as interest rates on bonds decline.

Mark Jeftovic took us on a deep dive into the crypto market, showcasing a number of cryptocurrency projects that have real-world use cases and could see a big move in the months ahead as the Fed kicks off interest rate cuts. Paid-up readers can access the replay here.

If you’re not a paid member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you can review the benefits of becoming one here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

The old Wall Street saying, “The trend is your friend,” has played out beautifully over the past few months—at least in the stock market.

However, on Main Street, consumers are starting to show signs of tapping out. And as they do, the trend on Wall Street could reverse suddenly.

One source of alternative data showing consumer stress? Google search trends:

Turn Your Images On

Search words and phrases reveal a surge in consumer anxiety over basic needs. (Source: Google)

These are the folks who have taken a hit in recent years, thanks to the massive income inequality that, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the Federal Reserve exacerbates.

Consumers who never bought assets like stocks, houses, or gold are lucky to hold steady in good times – but they risk losing it all in a recession.

With the Federal Reserve making big changes in the monetary system and starting to cut rates again, asset owners like shareholders and homeowners will benefit.

Cash-strapped, debt-addled consumers? They’ll be the first to take the hit from an economic slowdown and the next wave of inflation.

~ Addison

Then we got down to business, turning to Trump’s Shadow Fed and political pressure to cut rates into inflation.

If you’re not a paid member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you can review the benefits of becoming one here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!