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Ripple Effect

The Tech Meltup, Exhibit A

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

September 16, 2025 • 1 minute, 27 second read


GoogleRSIvaluation

The Tech Meltup, Exhibit A

If the S&P 500 can close higher today, it will be a headline-grabbing 10 days in a row.

In the short term, investor sentiment rather than fundamentals, are driving stocks higher.

Google, having avoided an anti-trust judgement and launched a competitive phone to Apple’s lack of an innovative one, is leading the index up:

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Google shares go parabolic. (Source: Stockcharts.com)

Google jumped over 4% yesterday. More importantly, the stock now has an RSI – relative strength index – of over 88, a level usually seen when small-caps become memes bid up by Reddit users.

Overall, the S&P 500’s RSI hit 70, the low side of overbought territory — for the entire index.

“Fed rate cuts tomorrow are likely priced in,” writes portfolio director, Andrew Packer, “it may not trigger a selloff, but at these levels,  investors may be disappointed with a .25 cut.”

Tech investors will remain bullish on the prospect of multiple rate cuts over the next few meetings.

But be wary of any indication the Fed tries to rebuff Trump’s overtures and, God forbid, remain independent tomorrow.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Politics are exerting extreme pressure on money market funds, too.

This week on Grey Swan Live! with Adam O’Dell – at 2 p.m. ET, Thursday, September 18, 2025 — we’ll be investigating the $10 trillion pile of cash sitting on the sidelines during the terrifying bull market on Wall Street.

Mr. O’Dell has been warning investors how impending changes to monetary policy are going to force savers out of cash and into the markets… or gold. More details to come. Sign up now to become a member and join us for this week’s call.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


The Ghost of Bastiat

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By then the receipts on my desk had arranged themselves into a sort of chorus. I heard, faintly, another refrain—one from Kentucky. In the first days of the shutdown, Senator Rand Paul stood alone among Republicans and voted against his party’s stopgap, telling interviewers that the numbers “don’t add up” and that he would not sign on to another year that piles $2 trillion onto the debt.

That, I realized, is what the tariff story shares with the broader budget theater: the habit of calling a tax something else, of shifting burdens into the fog and then celebrating the silhouette as victory. Even the vote tally made the point: he was the only Republican “no,” a lonely arithmetic lesson in a crowded room.

The Ghost of Bastiat
The Dollar’s Long Goodbye

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Senator Rand Paul, (R. KY), who was the sole Republican to vote against a continuing resolution, seems to care about the actual finances of the government. “I would never vote for a bill that added $2 trillion in national debt,” Paul said in various interviews over the weekend.

The $2 trillion he’s referring to is the lesser of two proposals made by the national parties… and would accrue during this next fiscal year.

Oy.

We liked what Liz Wolfe at Reason wrote on Friday, so we’ll repeat it here: “One of the dirty little secrets of every shutdown is that everything remains mostly fine. Private markets could easily replace many federal functions.”

It’s a strange kind of confidence — one where Wall Street soars while Washington goes dark.

The Dollar’s Long Goodbye
A Vote For The Yen Carry Trade

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The Liberal Democratic Party victory has sent Japanese stocks soaring, as party President Sanae Takaichi – now set to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister – is a proponent of stimulus spending, and a China hawk. The electoral win is a vote to keep the yen carry trade alive… and well.

The “yen carry trade” is a currency trading strategy. By borrowing Japanese yen at low interest rates and investing in higher-yielding assets, investors have profited from the interest rate differential. Yen carry trades have played a huge role in global liquidity for decades.

Frankly, we’re disappointed — not because of the carry trade but because the crowd got this one so wrong!

A Vote For The Yen Carry Trade
Beware: The Permanent Underclass

October 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in the Global Financial Crisis (2008), we recall mass layoffs were driving desperation.

Today, unemployment is relatively low, if climbing.

Affordability is much more of an issue. Food, rent, healthcare, and childcare are all rising faster than wages. Households aren’t jobless; they’re stretched. Job “quits” are at crisis-level lows.

In addition to the top 10% of earners, consumer spending is still strong. Not necessarily because of prosperity, but because households are taking extra shifts, hustling gigs, working late into the night, and using credit cards. The trends hold up demand but hollow out savings.

It’s the quiet form of financial repression. In an era of fiscal dominance, savers see easy returns clipped, workers stretch hours just to stay even, and wealth slips upward into assets while daily life grows harder to afford.

Beware: The Permanent Underclass