The Tech Meltup, Exhibit A

If the S&P 500 can close higher today, it will be a headline-grabbing 10 days in a row.

In the short term, investor sentiment rather than fundamentals, are driving stocks higher.

Google, having avoided an anti-trust judgement and launched a competitive phone to Apple’s lack of an innovative one, is leading the index up:

Turn Your Images On

Google shares go parabolic. (Source: Stockcharts.com)

Google jumped over 4% yesterday. More importantly, the stock now has an RSI – relative strength index – of over 88, a level usually seen when small-caps become memes bid up by Reddit users.

Overall, the S&P 500’s RSI hit 70, the low side of overbought territory — for the entire index.

“Fed rate cuts tomorrow are likely priced in,” writes portfolio director, Andrew Packer, “it may not trigger a selloff, but at these levels, investors may be disappointed with a .25 cut.”

Tech investors will remain bullish on the prospect of multiple rate cuts over the next few meetings.

But be wary of any indication the Fed tries to rebuff Trump’s overtures and, God forbid, remain independent tomorrow.

~ Addison

P.S. Politics are exerting extreme pressure on money market funds, too.

This week on Grey Swan Live! with Adam O’Dell – at 2 p.m. ET, Thursday, September 18, 2025 — we’ll be investigating the $10 trillion pile of cash sitting on the sidelines during the terrifying bull market on Wall Street.

Mr. O’Dell has been warning investors how impending changes to monetary policy are going to force savers out of cash and into the markets… or gold. More details to come. Sign up now to become a member and join us for this week’s call.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

If the S&P 500 can close higher today, it will be a headline-grabbing 10 days in a row.

In the short term, investor sentiment rather than fundamentals, are driving stocks higher.

Google, having avoided an anti-trust judgement and launched a competitive phone to Apple’s lack of an innovative one, is leading the index up:

Turn Your Images On

Google shares go parabolic. (Source: Stockcharts.com)

Google jumped over 4% yesterday. More importantly, the stock now has an RSI – relative strength index – of over 88, a level usually seen when small-caps become memes bid up by Reddit users.

Overall, the S&P 500’s RSI hit 70, the low side of overbought territory — for the entire index.

“Fed rate cuts tomorrow are likely priced in,” writes portfolio director, Andrew Packer, “it may not trigger a selloff, but at these levels, investors may be disappointed with a .25 cut.”

Tech investors will remain bullish on the prospect of multiple rate cuts over the next few meetings.

But be wary of any indication the Fed tries to rebuff Trump’s overtures and, God forbid, remain independent tomorrow.

~ Addison

P.S. Politics are exerting extreme pressure on money market funds, too.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!