GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2025 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Ripple Effect

The Quality Stocks Index Is A Screaming Buy… For The Long Haul

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

November 11, 2025 • 1 minute, 35 second read


Quality Index

The Quality Stocks Index Is A Screaming Buy… For The Long Haul

The gap between high-flying tech stocks – soaring far beyond their earnings growth – and companies delivering slow, but steady growth, has reached an extreme last seen in 1999:

Turn Your Images On

Quality stocks are underperforming the overall market at levels seen in the late 1990s. (Source: Jeff Weniger via X)

The S&P 500 Quality Index ranks companies not by market cap or a compelling AI story, but rather by fundamentals. Earnings, profit margins, and financial leverage. Reasonable debt.

You know, the kind of stuff that makes your eyes glaze over. And the type of companies we like to hold for the long haul in our model portfolio.

Today’s underperformance in quality stocks is another sign that we’re in a cycle where tech earnings are driven by a story, not by fundamentals – classic signs of a bubble.

While most data points we’ve reviewed indicate the bubble is still in its early stages, the Quality Stocks Index at this extreme is a sign of a late-stage bubble.

Today’s Quality Index gives you another reason to take some profits off the table now, as we’ve prescribed in thePlunge Protection Plan.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve invited New Yorker, Andrew Zatlin, to join this week on Grey Swan Live! for obvious reasons: we want to get a boots-on-the-ground look at what incited young voters to elect Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, to office in the world capital of finance. It’s an entertaining subject, at the very least.

With customary aplomb, we expect Zat to regale us with his thoughts on Mamdani, the purported exodus of finance bros to Florida and Texas and what the Federal government shutdown revealed about unemployment and the real economy behind the AI capex spending bubble. More to come…

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized

December 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

Political philosopher Russell Kirk called it “a revolution not made but prevented.” The colonists sought not chaos but continuity — the defense of their “chartered rights as Englishmen,” not the birth of an entirely new world. Kirk wrote:

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

Two and a half centuries later, the argument continues — only now, the battlefield is financial. Who controls access to money? Who defines legitimacy? Can a citizen’s ability to transact depend on their politics?

The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized
The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed
Waiting for Jerome

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning,  the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

Waiting for Jerome
Deep Value Going Global in 2026

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

Deep Value Going Global in 2026