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Ripple Effect

The Next Banking Crisis Is A Failure Away

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

May 23, 2025 • 58 second read


banking systemBanks

The Next Banking Crisis Is A Failure Away

Bond yields are soaring, with the benchmark 30-year U.S. Treasury bond hitting 5.15% this week.

With yields rising, bond holders are sitting on substantial losses. Perhaps the worst of those losses are in the banking sector.

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In total, U.S. banks are sitting on over $480 billion in unrealized losses.

Remember, it took a much smaller crack in the bond market to lead to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the second-largest bank failure in U.S history.

As we noted in Grey Swan Live! yesterday, unrealized bond losses may have to be realized at an inopportune time. The Federal Reserve was able to paper over those losses last time quickly, but events could quickly run out of control.

~ Addison

 

P.S. We’ve released new research on today’s markets, and how President Trump is following through on a Great Reset of the U.S. economy. This first phase isn’t pretty – we call it the Great Fire. But it could still mean some big investment opportunities now. Click here for more details.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Here Comes Yield Control

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We’ve been saying for a long time that when it came time to rev up the money printer again, the Fed would do it under some other rubric than “Quantitative Easing” (QE), because by now, everybody knows what that is. YCC? Not so much.

What it means is that the Fed will buy unlimited bonds out at the long end of the yield curve in order to keep yields under some arbitrary line in the sand.

Here Comes Yield Control
Warrior Ethos

October 1, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Let’s see, now that the government is shut down, where are we?

Pretty much where we left off: Markets surging higher, backed by the weight of AI capex and gorging on debt; A Congress unable to pay for promises forged in the 20th century’s welfare bureaucracy; A currency bleeding purchasing power with each deficit skirmish; A nation where even butter, coffee, and bandwidth become weapons of policy.

Warrior Ethos
Uncertainty or Not, Everyone’s Buying American

October 1, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In the first few months of the year, European stocks started outperforming U.S. stocks. There was talk of capital flows out of the U.S., and into Europe.

On the surface, that looked reasonable – a relative value play. But European investors continue to stay invested in the U.S. for one simple reason – it’s where the growth is.

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Palmer Luckey: I Saw the Future of War. Now It’s Up to Us to Prepare for It

September 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Like me, you can make the choice to put your technological talents to work for the mission of protecting your country.

You are your country’s finest engineers, technologists, and researchers. There is no secret arsenal. There is nobody else. It’s just you. So answer the call. Dare to build. And never yield in the defense of your country and its freedoms.

Palmer Luckey: I Saw the Future of War. Now It’s Up to Us to Prepare for It