The New Great Wall of China

For years, investors have looked at China’s gold production, its central bank buys, and scratched their heads.

The Chinese have infamously refrained from making significant changes to its gold holding reports.

While its central bank continues to keep mum, private research sources suggest total gold supplies in China are soaring:

Turn Your Images On

During the global inflation era unleashed by pandemic spending, China began aggressively selling U.S. Treasurys and buying gold. (Source: Steno Research)

The people’s party appears to be constructing a 21st century Great Wall: Built out of gold, and less susceptible to losses than a fiat currency like the U.S. dollar.

Some historic irony, here.

China invented paper currencies in the Tang Dynasty in the 7th Century. Known then by the Mandarin characters that mean “flying cash,” the currency, like all paper money, lost its value.

Today, as the rest of the world goes all-in on fiat, and begins to digitize the dollar, China’s rediscovery of gold as an asset suggests that gold’s run isn’t over… yet.

~ Addison

P.S. This week on Grey Swan Live! we’re planning a special two-fer for you. On Thursday, October 23, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET we’re going to do a run down of all the historical records this terrifying bull market has already hit — including retail investor buy-in, record margin debt and capital concentration at the top of the S&P 500.

We’re going to lay out in simple terms the AI crash scenario. Mostly, so you’re aware of what’s at stake, where we are in the mania and exactly what we expect to happen.

As Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of Too Big To Fail, said this week while promoting his new book “1929,” if we’re all in agreement this is a bubble in AI stocks, the trick is to “know when to get on [and more importantly] get off, the wave.”

Then, on Friday, October 24, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET, we’re going to do a comprehensive asset allocation and model portfolio review for paid-up annual members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

During the review session on Friday, we’ll be giving you access to an exclusive Plunge Protection Plan (for annual members only) including ways you can protect your money against a stock market correction and a few aggressive ways you can make money like the pros when the stock market goes down.

We’ll be providing more details throughout the week. But for now mark your calendar for these two dates:

Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — comprehensive overview of the “terrifying bull market.”
Friday, October 24, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — a comprehensive review of the Grey Swan asset allocation strategy and model portfolio. (For paid up annual members only)

The time to prepare for a market correction is before it happens, not while or after. If you wait to long, the the exits will get crowded in a hurry… and you don’t want to be worrying about your money if and when that happens.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

For years, investors have looked at China’s gold production, its central bank buys, and scratched their heads.

The Chinese have infamously refrained from making significant changes to its gold holding reports.

While its central bank continues to keep mum, private research sources suggest total gold supplies in China are soaring:

Turn Your Images On

During the global inflation era unleashed by pandemic spending, China began aggressively selling U.S. Treasurys and buying gold. (Source: Steno Research)

The people’s party appears to be constructing a 21st century Great Wall: Built out of gold, and less susceptible to losses than a fiat currency like the U.S. dollar.

Some historic irony, here.

China invented paper currencies in the Tang Dynasty in the 7th Century. Known then by the Mandarin characters that mean “flying cash,” the currency, like all paper money, lost its value.

Today, as the rest of the world goes all-in on fiat, and begins to digitize the dollar, China’s rediscovery of gold as an asset suggests that gold’s run isn’t over… yet.

~ Addison

We’re going to lay out in simple terms the AI crash scenario. Mostly, so you’re aware of what’s at stake, where we are in the mania and exactly what we expect to happen.

Then, on Friday, October 24, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET, we’re going to do a comprehensive asset allocation and model portfolio review for paid-up annual members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

We’ll be providing more details throughout the week. But for now mark your calendar for these two dates:

Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — comprehensive overview of the “terrifying bull market.”
Friday, October 24, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — a comprehensive review of the Grey Swan asset allocation strategy and model portfolio. (For paid up annual members only)

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Sunday night, Powell addressed the probe head-on in a video post — a rarity. He accused the White House of using cost overruns in the Fed’s HQ renovation as a pretext for political interference.

The White House denied involvement. But few in Washington believed it.

What followed was bipartisan condemnation of the investigation. Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen co-signed a blistering rebuke, warning the U.S. was starting to resemble “emerging markets with weak institutions.”

Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.

There’s an old Wall Street maxim: “Don’t fight the Fed.”

This year, you could add a Trump corollary.

A wise capital allocator doesn’t fight that storm. He doesn’t argue with it. He respects it the way sailors respect the sea: with preparation, with humility, and with a sharp eye for what breaks first.

In 2026, the things that break first are the stories. The narratives. The comfortable assumptions.

Total municipal, state and federal debt service costs soared to nearly $1.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. Debt’s easy to accumulate when rates are low. Trouble is, you are obligated to refinance them even after rates go up.

It’s also a key reason why the Trump administration is demanding lower interest rates – even if it means reigniting inflation.