The New Great Wall of China

For years, investors have looked at China’s gold production, its central bank buys, and scratched their heads.

The Chinese have infamously refrained from making significant changes to its gold holding reports.

While its central bank continues to keep mum, private research sources suggest total gold supplies in China are soaring:

Turn Your Images On

During the global inflation era unleashed by pandemic spending, China began aggressively selling U.S. Treasurys and buying gold. (Source: Steno Research)

The people’s party appears to be constructing a 21st century Great Wall: Built out of gold, and less susceptible to losses than a fiat currency like the U.S. dollar.

Some historic irony, here.

China invented paper currencies in the Tang Dynasty in the 7th Century. Known then by the Mandarin characters that mean “flying cash,” the currency, like all paper money, lost its value.

Today, as the rest of the world goes all-in on fiat, and begins to digitize the dollar, China’s rediscovery of gold as an asset suggests that gold’s run isn’t over… yet.

~ Addison

P.S. This week on Grey Swan Live! we’re planning a special two-fer for you. On Thursday, October 23, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET we’re going to do a run down of all the historical records this terrifying bull market has already hit — including retail investor buy-in, record margin debt and capital concentration at the top of the S&P 500.

We’re going to lay out in simple terms the AI crash scenario. Mostly, so you’re aware of what’s at stake, where we are in the mania and exactly what we expect to happen.

As Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of Too Big To Fail, said this week while promoting his new book “1929,” if we’re all in agreement this is a bubble in AI stocks, the trick is to “know when to get on [and more importantly] get off, the wave.”

Then, on Friday, October 24, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET, we’re going to do a comprehensive asset allocation and model portfolio review for paid-up annual members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

During the review session on Friday, we’ll be giving you access to an exclusive Plunge Protection Plan (for annual members only) including ways you can protect your money against a stock market correction and a few aggressive ways you can make money like the pros when the stock market goes down.

We’ll be providing more details throughout the week. But for now mark your calendar for these two dates:

Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — comprehensive overview of the “terrifying bull market.”
Friday, October 24, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — a comprehensive review of the Grey Swan asset allocation strategy and model portfolio. (For paid up annual members only)

The time to prepare for a market correction is before it happens, not while or after. If you wait to long, the the exits will get crowded in a hurry… and you don’t want to be worrying about your money if and when that happens.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

For years, investors have looked at China’s gold production, its central bank buys, and scratched their heads.

The Chinese have infamously refrained from making significant changes to its gold holding reports.

While its central bank continues to keep mum, private research sources suggest total gold supplies in China are soaring:

Turn Your Images On

During the global inflation era unleashed by pandemic spending, China began aggressively selling U.S. Treasurys and buying gold. (Source: Steno Research)

The people’s party appears to be constructing a 21st century Great Wall: Built out of gold, and less susceptible to losses than a fiat currency like the U.S. dollar.

Some historic irony, here.

China invented paper currencies in the Tang Dynasty in the 7th Century. Known then by the Mandarin characters that mean “flying cash,” the currency, like all paper money, lost its value.

Today, as the rest of the world goes all-in on fiat, and begins to digitize the dollar, China’s rediscovery of gold as an asset suggests that gold’s run isn’t over… yet.

~ Addison

We’re going to lay out in simple terms the AI crash scenario. Mostly, so you’re aware of what’s at stake, where we are in the mania and exactly what we expect to happen.

Then, on Friday, October 24, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET, we’re going to do a comprehensive asset allocation and model portfolio review for paid-up annual members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

We’ll be providing more details throughout the week. But for now mark your calendar for these two dates:

Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — comprehensive overview of the “terrifying bull market.”
Friday, October 24, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — a comprehensive review of the Grey Swan asset allocation strategy and model portfolio. (For paid up annual members only)

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

Relative to GDP, the net international investment claim on the U.S. economy was 20% in 2003. It had swollen to 65% by 2023. Practically every type of American company, bond, or real estate asset now has some degree of foreign ownership.

But it’s even worse than that. As the federal deficit has pumped up the GDP figures, and made a larger share of the economy dependent on government spending, the quality and sustainability of GDP have deteriorated. So, foreigners, to the extent they are paying attention, are accumulating claims on an economy that has been eroded by inefficient, government-directed spending and “investments.” Why should foreign creditors maintain confidence in the integrity of these paper claims? Only to the extent that their economies are even worse off. And in the case of China, that’s probably true.

As global government interest expense climbed, gold quietly followed it higher. The IIF estimates that interest costs on government debt now run at nearly $4.9 trillion annually. Over the same span, gold prices have tracked that burden almost one-for-one.

Silver has recently gone along for the ride, with even more enthusiasm.

Since early 2023, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 150 basis points, touching levels not seen since the 1990s.

Over that same period, gold prices have surged about 135%, while silver is up roughly 175%. Zoom out two years, and the divergence becomes starker still: gold up 114%, silver up 178%, while the S&P 500 gained 44%.

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, the average retail investor has about a 70% allocation to stocks. That’s well over the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. Even a 60/40 allocation ignores real estate, gold, collectibles, and private assets.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.