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Ripple Effect

The “New” Contrarian Case for Bonds

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

December 3, 2025 • 1 minute, 8 second read


Bonds

The “New” Contrarian Case for Bonds

If you want to take some tech profits off the table, bonds might be a good place to stash your cash. During the AI boom, investors have allocated the lowest amount of capital to bonds in 15 years:

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Investors have their lowest allocation to bonds since 2007. (Source: Topdowncharts)

During a Fed rate cut cycle, bond yields follow, which typically means bond prices tick higher. If you buy bonds now, you’ll be getting in ahead of the crowd.

And if this tech wreck shapes up anything like 2000-01, investors will want to get out fast. Despite the debt mess in Washington, bonds will again look “safe.”

One minor bonus: if you buy now, you’ll lock in higher yields before the next Fed rate cut, which is expected to come one week from today.

~ Addison

P.S.  Tomorrow @ 2pm EST/11am PST on Grey Swan Live! we’ll be joined by Bonner Private Research’s Dan Denning to identify key sectors likely to benefit from an early “Santa Rally” when the Fed cuts rates on December 10, 2025.  And how you should position your overall portfolio to benefit from the economic incentives the Trump administration will put in place ahead of the 2026 midterms.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


American Life: Less Ordinary

December 2, 2025 • Bill Bonner

But Green is describing more than just a new calculation. He’s talking about a new form of misery.’ It’s a poverty where you may still have most of the accoutrements of middle-class life. But your relationship with the financial elite has changed: you are indentured to the credit industry — for life.

American Life: Less Ordinary
The Inflation Episodes – Act I

December 2, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Historically, when the Fed has cut into inflation above 3%, one of two outcomes tends to follow:

A brief reprieve, followed by a larger inflation wave (see: 1970s).

A crisis born from cheap money rather than expensive money (see: housing in the 2000s).

We are heading into another round of cuts with:

• A still-bloated balance sheet

• A new digital plumbing that auto-funds the Treasury

• Hard-asset markets flashing warning lights

Paul Tudor Jones summed it up in one dry quip: interest expense is now one of Washington’s largest bills; commodities are “ridiculously under-owned”; and “all roads lead to inflation.”

The Fed’s flip from QT to easing doesn’t end this inflation episode. It likely begins its next season.

The Inflation Episodes – Act I
Looking For 10% Monthly Returns? Google It

December 2, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The question investors should ask themselves isn’t whether this trend is sustainable – it isn’t.

Instead, they should ask if the $2 trillion increase in Google’s market cap has sucked capital away from other promising parts of the market – and if so, where investors can expect a rally when Google reverses.

Looking For 10% Monthly Returns? Google It
The Problem With Fake Money

December 1, 2025 • Bill Bonner

Long have we dwelt on the corrupting influence of funny money on capital asset prices and on the economy. Everything gets distorted, perverse…and false. We get high prices. We get low prices. What we don’t get are honest prices.

Yesterday, we looked at the ‘small time crooks’ — ripping off the public for a million or two.

Today, we move to the big fry.

You’ll recall that the money in question was never earned by anyone. No one has a genuine claim to it. And what kind of apple falls from this funny money tree? Just what you’d expect…a funny one…with the worms already in it.

The Problem With Fake Money