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Ripple Effect

The “New” Contrarian Case for Bonds

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

December 3, 2025 • 1 minute, 8 second read


Bonds

The “New” Contrarian Case for Bonds

If you want to take some tech profits off the table, bonds might be a good place to stash your cash. During the AI boom, investors have allocated the lowest amount of capital to bonds in 15 years:

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Investors have their lowest allocation to bonds since 2007. (Source: Topdowncharts)

During a Fed rate cut cycle, bond yields follow, which typically means bond prices tick higher. If you buy bonds now, you’ll be getting in ahead of the crowd.

And if this tech wreck shapes up anything like 2000-01, investors will want to get out fast. Despite the debt mess in Washington, bonds will again look “safe.”

One minor bonus: if you buy now, you’ll lock in higher yields before the next Fed rate cut, which is expected to come one week from today.

~ Addison

P.S.  Tomorrow @ 2pm EST/11am PST on Grey Swan Live! we’ll be joined by Bonner Private Research’s Dan Denning to identify key sectors likely to benefit from an early “Santa Rally” when the Fed cuts rates on December 10, 2025.  And how you should position your overall portfolio to benefit from the economic incentives the Trump administration will put in place ahead of the 2026 midterms.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress

January 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.

A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress
Protest Season Amid the Grand Realignment

January 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

There’s an old Wall Street maxim: “Don’t fight the Fed.”

This year, you could add a Trump corollary.

A wise capital allocator doesn’t fight that storm. He doesn’t argue with it. He respects it the way sailors respect the sea: with preparation, with humility, and with a sharp eye for what breaks first.

In 2026, the things that break first are the stories. The narratives. The comfortable assumptions.

Protest Season Amid the Grand Realignment
Breaking: Government Budgets

January 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Total municipal, state and federal debt service costs soared to nearly $1.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. Debt’s easy to accumulate when rates are low. Trouble is, you are obligated to refinance them even after rates go up.

It’s also a key reason why the Trump administration is demanding lower interest rates – even if it means reigniting inflation.

Breaking: Government Budgets
Caracas and the Return of a Dusty Old Map

January 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The “Donroe Doctrine,” the White House is calling… because Trump hasn’t yet stamped his name on every facet of U.S. political life.

America in the Americas. China in East Asia. Russia, where Russia still can.

There is a certain gangster logic to it. Not the UN Charter. Not the Magna Carta. More Godfather than Geneva.

Markets, predictably, shrugged.

Oil stocks rallied. Defense stocks jumped. Consultants booked flights to the oil fields near Lake Maracaibo and the Orinoco Belt.

Caracas and the Return of a Dusty Old Map