The launch of ChatGPT in October 2022 ended the pandemic-era bear market in stocks. The AI story has been the predominant narrative for three years now. The indexes on Wall Street are at historic highs, surpassing 2000, 1968, 1929… the last three tech-inspired bubbles.
But ChatGPT did something else. It brought the idea of “productivity gains” back into the economic conversation. Look at this chart:
Since the launch of ChatGPT, job openings in the U.S. have sunk. More of a return to trend after pandemic-era dislocations warped the hiring data. (Source: @infraa via X)
Many economists will interpret the introduction of AI tools in the workplace as a substitute for workers. And it’s true, almost immediately upon the introduction of Chat GPT, the stock market started to boom and job openings dropped.
It’s unlikely that AI tools, like ChatGPT, Perplexity or Claude, increased productivity overnight. But even the perception that they could, gives hiring managers a pause on posting new job openings. Maybe.
The more likely explanation is that the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to combat 9% inflation in 2022. Inflation alone gave employers a reason to be cautious when taking on full-time salaried employees.
Employment data trends were further complicated early in 2022 and 2023 because the Biden era statistics emphasize government-created jobs and part-time work… if even those stats don’t get revised away in the coming months.
Will AI ultimately lead to fewer jobs and shorter workweeks? When asked that question on Fox News’ Claman Countdown yesterday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang looked puzzled.
“No,” he responded. “These tools are so powerful and efficient, we’ll be busier than ever.”
In innovation cycles of the past, new efficiencies generally create jobs – yes, different jobs, new skills – but more of them.
~ Addison
P.S. Part of yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic covered some of this ground. Mark even made the bold claim that the internet could have gone away following the dotcom boom and the economy would have been fine – but that wouldn’t be the case with AI today.
The comment drew immediate discussion on the Live! chat board. Jeftovic also claimed the stock market has become so big, so fast, we won’t see a 2008-style collapse ever again… because if we did, that would be “the end” of our financial system.
Provocative stuff.
The fireworks continued when Mark and Andrew argued that, because of a new regulatory environment established by the Trump administration and now going into law, there is a significant possibility for a parabolic move in crypto by year-end, with an emphasis on several stocks that should benefit, no matter which specific cryptocurrencies take off.
If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
