The Myth of Productivity, Again

The launch of ChatGPT in October 2022 ended the pandemic-era bear market in stocks. The AI story has been the predominant narrative for three years now. The indexes on Wall Street are at historic highs, surpassing 2000, 1968, 1929… the last three tech-inspired bubbles.

But ChatGPT did something else. It brought the idea of “productivity gains” back into the economic conversation. Look at this chart:

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Since the launch of ChatGPT, job openings in the U.S. have sunk. More of a return to trend after pandemic-era dislocations warped the hiring data. (Source: @infraa via X)

Many economists will interpret the introduction of AI tools in the workplace as a substitute for workers. And it’s true, almost immediately upon the introduction of Chat GPT, the stock market started to boom and job openings dropped.

It’s unlikely that AI tools, like ChatGPT, Perplexity or Claude, increased productivity overnight. But even the perception that they could, gives hiring managers a pause on posting new job openings. Maybe.

The more likely explanation is that the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to combat 9% inflation in 2022. Inflation alone gave employers a reason to be cautious when taking on full-time salaried employees.

Employment data trends were further complicated early in 2022 and 2023 because the Biden era statistics emphasize government-created jobs and part-time work… if even those stats don’t get revised away in the coming months.

Will AI ultimately lead to fewer jobs and shorter workweeks? When asked that question on Fox News’ Claman Countdown yesterday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang looked puzzled.

“No,” he responded. “These tools are so powerful and efficient, we’ll be busier than ever.”

In innovation cycles of the past, new efficiencies generally create jobs – yes, different jobs, new skills – but more of them.

~ Addison

P.S. Part of yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic covered some of this ground. Mark even made the bold claim that the internet could have gone away following the dotcom boom and the economy would have been fine – but that wouldn’t be the case with AI today.

The comment drew immediate discussion on the Live! chat board. Jeftovic also claimed the stock market has become so big, so fast, we won’t see a 2008-style collapse ever again… because if we did, that would be “the end” of our financial system.

Provocative stuff.

The fireworks continued when Mark and Andrew argued that, because of a new regulatory environment established by the Trump administration and now going into law, there is a significant possibility for a parabolic move in crypto by year-end, with an emphasis on several stocks that should benefit, no matter which specific cryptocurrencies take off.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

But ChatGPT did something else. It brought the idea of “productivity gains” back into the economic conversation. Look at this chart:

Turn Your Images On

Since the launch of ChatGPT, job openings in the U.S. have sunk. More of a return to trend after pandemic-era dislocations warped the hiring data. (Source: @infraa via X)

Will AI ultimately lead to fewer jobs and shorter workweeks? When asked that question on Fox News’ Claman Countdown yesterday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang looked puzzled.

“No,” he responded. “These tools are so powerful and efficient, we’ll be busier than ever.”

In innovation cycles of the past, new efficiencies generally create jobs – yes, different jobs, new skills – but more of them.

~ Addison

Provocative stuff.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Under the frost-crusted shrubs, the bears are sniffing around for scraps of bloody meat.

They smell the subtle rot of credit stress, central-bank desperation, and debt that’s beginning to steam in the cold. They’re not charging — not yet. But they’re present. Watching. Testing the doors.

Retail investors, last in line, await the Fed’s final announcement of the year on Wednesday. Then the central planners of the world get their turn: the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank.

Treasuries just suffered their worst week since June. And in Japan — the quiet godfather of global liquidity — something fundamental is breaking.

Silver continues its blistering ascent. Gold and bitcoin have settled in at $4,200 and $92,000, respectively.

It’s absurd, really, for any politician to be talking about “affordability.”

The data is clear. If higher prices are your goal, let the government “fix” them.

Mandates, paperwork, and busybodies telling you what you can and can’t do – it’s not a surprise why costs add up.

In contrast, if you want lower prices, do nothing– zilch. Let the market work.

For 30 years, Japan was the land where interest rates went to die.

The Bank of Japan used yield-curve control to keep long-term rates sedated. Traders joked that shorting Japanese bonds was the “widow-maker trade.”

Not anymore.

On November 20, 2025, everything changed. Quietly, but decisively.

The Bank of Japan finally pulled the plug on decades of easy money. Negative rates were removed. Yield-curve control was abandoned. The policy rate was lifted to a 17-year high.

Suddenly, global markets had to reprice something they had ignored for years.

What happens when the world’s largest creditor nation stops exporting cheap capital and starts pulling it back home?

The answer came fast. Bond yields in Europe and the United States began climbing. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply. Wall Street faltered.

The rate cut narrative is calcifying into gospel: the Fed must cut to save the consumer.

Bankrate reports that 59% of Americans cannot cover a $1,000 emergency without debt or selling something. And yet stocks are roaring, liquidity junkies are celebrating, and the top 10% now account for half of all consumer spending.

Here’s the plot twist: before 2020, consumer confidence faithfully tracked equity markets. After 2020, that relationship broke. As one analyst put it, “The poor don’t hate stocks going up. They just don’t feel it anymore.”

So when the Fed cuts rates in one of the hottest stock markets in history, who exactly benefits? Not the 59%. Not the middle. Certainly not anyone renting and watching shelter inflation devour their paycheck.