There’s an enduring American perception that financial stress is a problem for other people — the folks in modest houses, with modest salaries, and modest ambitions. The kind who clip coupons, not articles from Goldman Sachs.
A new study by Goldman, however, blows that myth to pieces with dynamite and a smile.
According to their latest Retirement Survey & Insights Report, a stunning 40% of Americans earning more than $300,000 a year are living paycheck to paycheck.
Yep. The “upper-middle” caste. The private-school, SUV, ergonomic-wine-fridge set. The people supposedly immune to the indignities of budgeting.
Turns out they’re riding the same hedonic treadmill as the rest of the country — just with nicer shoes and a higher minimum payment. Goldman blames it on “elevated expenses and lifestyle inflation.”
The stuff they once treated as luxuries — larger homes, boutique schools, the ever-necessary German automobile — magically transformed into “needs.” It’s amazing how quickly expectations inflate when the income rises to meet them.
Worse still, fewer than 30% of $300k+ earners say they’re making real progress on any financial goal, near or far.
Emergency savings? Thin.
Retirement contributions? Inconsistent.
Prepared for a layoff, a blown transmission, or a surprise medical bill? Hardly.
Retail participation in the stock market democratized investing… and financial fragility. A high income no longer guarantees safety — just a higher altitude from which to fall.
We actually had a difficult time writing this morning. Because while we often focus on the bubble in AI stocks on Wall Street and the all-too-consuming firehouse of politics out of Washington, we’re also keenly aware that the real economy is going through a rapid debt-fueled transition, too.
With AI stocks propping up the national mood like circus tent poles, one hard correction could yank the canvas down on all of us. Beyond the stock market looms a more strident stress test.
Below you’ll see a list of 11 areas of concern in the real economy. As we begin our process of reviewing the Grey Swan forecasts from 2025 and look forward to 2026, these trends will provide some focus:
#1 The National Mood Turned South
Consumer sentiment has cratered. The University of Michigan reports a reading of 50.3, the second-lowest ever recorded since the survey began in 1978.
Only June 2022, when inflation hit its 40-year high, was worse. Shutdown worries dragged Americans into a darker emotional basement. Sentiment dropped 6.2% in a month, 30% in a year.
Wall Street can debate technical indicators until the closing bell. But Main Street is asking a more difficult question: what happens when people don’t believe the narrative anymore?
#2 Credit Scores Sank at the Fastest Pace Since 2009
It’s no secret that “debt” is how Americans evaluate their standing. It’s our national pastime. During bubble times, credit gets abused. Debt increases.
Currently, FICO reports that the average U.S. credit score has fallen from 717 to 715 — a two-point drop that hasn’t occurred since the “Great Recession” in 2009.
A slight dip, yes. But when credit scores fall during supposedly “strong” markets, it signals something deeper: Not all boats are rising with the tide. Many have yet to admit they’re taking on water.
#3 Holiday Hiring Slumps to “Great Recession” Levels
Retailers are hiring 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers — the lowest holiday hiring in at least 15 years.
Last year they hired an aggregate 442,000.
The National Retail Federation’s Matthew Shay says these seasonal jobs numbers reflect a broader “softening and slowing labor market.” If Santa were real, he’d be updating his résumé.
#4 Layoffs Surged, Last Seen in 2008
October delivered 153,074 layoffs, up 183% from September and 175% from a year earlier — the highest October count in over 20 years, and the worst fourth-quarter month since 2008.
The last time we saw numbers like these, Lehman Brothers still had a pulse.
#5 Americans Lose Faith in Their Ability to Find Work
The New York Fed reports that the perceived chance of finding a job after losing one is just 44.9% — the lowest confidence level since the data collection began in 2013.
Younger workers and those without college degrees feel it worst. This is what it looks like when an economy’s narrative diverges from its reality.
#6 Household Debt Hit a Record $18.6 Trillion
Total household debt has never been higher. Not during the housing bubble. Not during Covid. Not ever.
Young Americans are the first to fall behind — squeezed by rents, car payments, student loans, and wages that pretend inflation didn’t happen.
We’ve created a system where adulthood now resembles a subscription service with no cancel button.
#7 Delinquencies Spiked to Their Highest Since 2014
In Q3, 3% of all outstanding balances slipped into serious delinquency — the biggest jump since 2014.
Among Americans aged 18 to 29, the delinquency rate jumped to 5%, twice last year’s rate. It’s not that young people are irresponsible. It’s that the math has become predatory.
#8 Aluminum Prices Explode
The all-in U.S. aluminum price just hit $4,816 per ton, nearly double the level of late 2023. Tariffs tightened supply, inventories shrank, and manufacturers are quietly passing the costs along.
Aluminum is everywhere — cans, cars, construction. When aluminum doubles, the grocery aisle follows.
#9 Wendy’s To Close Hundreds of Locations
As a proxy for consumer perishables, Wendy’s will shutter 240–360 restaurants this year, after closing 140 last year.
Interim CEO Ken Cook said the underperforming stores “do not elevate the brand.” In corporate-speak, that means: They’re losing money and forecasts for a turnaround don’t look good.
Fast food contracts first when family budgets do.
#10 U.S. Manufacturing Contracts for the Eighth Straight Month
The Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell again, from 49.1 to 48.7 — another month of contraction.
Production, inventories, and delivery metrics all weakened. Panelists say companies are “managing the workforce” rather than hiring.
That’s the polite way of saying the growth atmosphere has thinned to the level of a Himalayan base camp.
#11 The Tech Layoff Wave Rolls On
Tech — the lone bright spot in the American growth narrative — has been chopping jobs with industrial efficiency. Over 112,000 tech workers have been laid off so far in 2025. Amazon alone cut 14,000.
AI, the narrative repeats, will boost productivity. Whether that’s true or not, it’s eliminating employee headcount as it always does with the introduction of a new technology.
“Efficiency over human capital” is now the unofficial motto of Silicon Valley — spoken softly while security escorts yet another engineer out the door.
If the AI bubble deflates even moderately, the shockwave won’t stop at your 401(k). It’ll hit hiring, consumption, politics, and every narrative Washington has carefully duct-taped together ahead of the 2026 midterms.
We’ve built an economy on debt, assumptions, and a handful of tech giants functioning as mythological creatures. A correction in the stock market — a real one — is not just possible. It’s overdue.
The Hard Part Hasn’t Started
If the last quarter-century taught us anything, it’s that it’s dangerously easy to mistake a stock market for an economy.
We did it during the dot-com boom, when the Nasdaq became a national mood ring. We did it again in 2008, right up until the ground gave way beneath the banks that were supposedly too clever to fail. Bubbles have a way of hypnotizing crowds, even otherwise sensible ones.
This time around, we’ve layered on an even larger distraction: the political spectacle of the Trump-era realignment. It has the gravity of a historical pivot and the theatrics of a late-night drama.
Between the tariffs, the carve-outs, the courtroom skirmishes, and the ideological rebranding of both parties, it’s no wonder people lose track of the quieter, slower-moving forces right under their own feet.
But the fundamentals don’t care about the spectacle.
Back in 2009, the federal debt was $10 trillion. Today it’s $38 trillion. State and local governments are showing their seams. Corporate debt is swollen. Households are stretched thin enough to see daylight through them.
We’ve lived through the greatest borrowing binge in modern history, and yet the national mood feels poorer, more brittle, less confident.
There’s a familiar pattern here: the higher the noise, the more critical it becomes to tune it out. The markets will surge and swoon, the political class will posture, and commentators will insist that this time is different.
Our biggest concern, meanwhile, is that with a collapsing stock market, economic anxiety will reach fever highs. And with it the political divide in the country will become even more performative, expressive and violent.
Civil society cannot sustain a credit crisis.
The real work — the only work that actually matters — happens at the level of your own finances, your own decisions, your own family. No administration, blue or red, can insulate you from a balance sheet that doesn’t balance.
~Addison
P.S. This week on Grey Swan Live!, we’ve got another two-fer on the schedule for you:
On Thursday, November 20, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST we’ll take a deep dive into our Dollar 2.0 thesis, with guests Ian King and Mark Jeftovic. The investment thesis remains well intact going into 2026, despite the recent, nasty selloff in the crypto market.
Then on Friday, November 12, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PSTwe’ve invited our friends at Prime Financial Services back to help you with tax planning for your investment portfolio ahead of the holiday season and closing out the trading year 2025.
Prime’s Nick Buhelos will join us again to make sure you maximize your investment returns – by walking you through the correct financial structure you need to take advantage of explicit IRS business rules that apply to individual investors.
If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
