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Ripple Effect

The Making of a Credit “Event”

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

May 28, 2025 • 1 minute, 6 second read


credit defaultcredit event

The Making of a Credit “Event”

When DOGE can identify hundreds of billions of dollars in waste, fraud and abuses… and… the budget deficit grows?

Well, investors get uppity.

That’s why the global bond market is sending yields soaring.

Another danger? Credit default risks are on the rise in the U.S. – their highest level in over a year.

Turn Your Images On

We may not be at a crisis point yet – but the trend is clear.

Credit markets continue to flash warning signals while investors have a “risk-on” approach to assets. That game of musical chairs won’t end happy for them.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve recently released new research on today’s markets, and how President Trump is following through on a Great Reset of the U.S. economy. This first phase isn’t pretty – we call it the Great Fire – of which today’s rising credit risks are certainly a part. Click here for more details on how it could play out.

Plus, for our members, we’ll have our weekly Grey Swan Live! video tomorrow. Andrew Packer will be joining us from Las Vegas, where he’s attending Bitcoin 2025. We’ll talk all things bitcoin – and there have been plenty of developments so far already.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity

January 1, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The crack-up boom does not signal immediate collapse. Monetary policy gets a new master… inflation rages… and investors chase stocks as a means of keeping pace with their savings.

Markets may even finish 2026 higher than they begin. Many investors will still lose purchasing power along the way. Terminal velocity will feel like momentum… until reality hits.

In 2026, expect breathtaking advances, with the AI narrative remaining dominant, and sudden reversals to occur quickly. Expect liquidity to remain plentiful and erode discipline even more.

Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity
Grey Swan #3: The Midterms Deliver a Socialist Majority in the House

December 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the socialist agenda lands, the reaction matters as much as the results of the initial vote.

A hostile House gridlocks legislation. Investigations proliferate. Impeachment chatter returns. Executive authority stretches to compensate.

The political goal of the reactionary strategist will be to muck up the Trump realignment as much as possible to regain power in the House, the Senate (eventually), fortify the courts and ultimately take back the Oval Office. 

Trump will not face a midterm defeat like past lame-duck presidents. We’ll see a host of creative efforts to assert executive authority and override the people’s House. The checks and balances bestowed by Montesquieu at the very root of the Republic will be tested as never before.

Grey Swan #3: The Midterms Deliver a Socialist Majority in the House
Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America

December 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the U.S. can no longer afford to police the world, it will prioritize what sits closest to home. Oil, lithium, copper, rare earths, food, and shipping lanes in the Western Hemisphere matter more to America’s economic resilience than abstract security guarantees signed eight decades ago.

The Financial Times captured this shift late in 2025, noting that U.S. foreign policy is “increasingly transactional, geographically compressed, and resource-oriented.” Bloomberg went further, describing a “hemispheric retrenchment” underway beneath the noise of global diplomacy.

We have observed passively that empires of the past, burdened by debt, stop expanding ideologically and start contracting strategically. If nothing else, this is a guide that helps decipher Trump’s comedic efforts at the podium on the second-term victory tour he’s on.

Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America
Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy

December 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By 2026, all four supports will demonstrate that they’ve weakened simultaneously. As true as it may or may not be, it’s not likely to be understood, let alone covered by old-school national media.

Debt narrows choices. War hardens politics. False bureaucratic authority substitutes for something, trust, maybe. Nationalists will be more than willing to fill the vacuum.

Europe’s fracture will feel gradual. Policy coherence will erode further. Markets will adapt and look to the Middle and/or Far East to finance the Ponzi finance on display in New York and London.

Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy