GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2025 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Ripple Effect

The Making of a Credit “Event”

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

May 28, 2025 • 1 minute, 6 second read


credit defaultcredit event

The Making of a Credit “Event”

When DOGE can identify hundreds of billions of dollars in waste, fraud and abuses… and… the budget deficit grows?

Well, investors get uppity.

That’s why the global bond market is sending yields soaring.

Another danger? Credit default risks are on the rise in the U.S. – their highest level in over a year.

Turn Your Images On

We may not be at a crisis point yet – but the trend is clear.

Credit markets continue to flash warning signals while investors have a “risk-on” approach to assets. That game of musical chairs won’t end happy for them.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve recently released new research on today’s markets, and how President Trump is following through on a Great Reset of the U.S. economy. This first phase isn’t pretty – we call it the Great Fire – of which today’s rising credit risks are certainly a part. Click here for more details on how it could play out.

Plus, for our members, we’ll have our weekly Grey Swan Live! video tomorrow. Andrew Packer will be joining us from Las Vegas, where he’s attending Bitcoin 2025. We’ll talk all things bitcoin – and there have been plenty of developments so far already.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Jesse Colombo: Did Gold and Silver Just Peak?

October 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Just a couple of days ago, everyone was celebrating gold’s move above the critical $4,000 psychological resistance level. But with today’s pullback, it slipped back below that level in both COMEX futures and spot, which makes me pause and think, as it indicates a rejection of that key level.

This increases the likelihood of a modest pullback or a period of sideways consolidation, as gold may have temporarily run out of momentum to push higher in the short term. That is perfectly normal, healthy, and not at all surprising. It is much like a sprinter who has just run hard and needs a moment to catch their breath.

Jesse Colombo: Did Gold and Silver Just Peak?
A Brief Schelling Point for Global Markets

October 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Gold. Stocks. Bitcoin. Prediction markets. Each a different surface on the same wave — money searching for a story it can still believe in.

The Schelling Point of this moment isn’t one price or policy; it’s the shared intuition that something historic is shifting… even though we haven’t named it.

It’s Friday. It’s a good time to “remobilize our axioms,” as my favorite William F. Buckley quote goes.

We need to stick to our guns and remember that the goal of understanding Grey Swan events as they unfold is to plan, preserve our capital, and earn a good return for the long run. Let’s not get distracted by the market highs or headlines of a terrifying bull!

A Brief Schelling Point for Global Markets
What Goes Up…

October 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Only during the ‘08 financial crisis and its aftermath have the majority of money managers seen stocks as undervalued.

This data point is another in a list of historic highs – stock indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, retail investment, retail margin borrowing – we’re seeing in the market right now.

Markets are out of whack to the upside.

History’s cautionary tale? When markets are out of whack… it takes an unsettling event (crisis) to get them back into whack.

What Goes Up…
George Gilder: Led by Coherent, The Data Center is Turning to the Light

October 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As AI clusters demand more light at every layer — from rack to package — Coherent’s share of that energy pathway increases. The startups illustrate what’s possible; Coherent ensures it happens.

As light enters the data center — step by step, layer by layer — Coherent is the most experienced and scaled name in the field. It carries the light forward.

George Gilder: Led by Coherent, The Data Center is Turning to the Light