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Ripple Effect

The Making of a Credit “Event”

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

May 28, 2025 • 1 minute, 6 second read

credit defaultcredit event
The Making of a Credit “Event”

When DOGE can identify hundreds of billions of dollars in waste, fraud and abuses… and… the budget deficit grows?

Well, investors get uppity.

That’s why the global bond market is sending yields soaring.

Another danger? Credit default risks are on the rise in the U.S. – their highest level in over a year.

Turn Your Images On

We may not be at a crisis point yet – but the trend is clear.

Credit markets continue to flash warning signals while investors have a “risk-on” approach to assets. That game of musical chairs won’t end happy for them.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve recently released new research on today’s markets, and how President Trump is following through on a Great Reset of the U.S. economy. This first phase isn’t pretty – we call it the Great Fire – of which today’s rising credit risks are certainly a part. Click here for more details on how it could play out.

Plus, for our members, we’ll have our weekly Grey Swan Live! video tomorrow. Andrew Packer will be joining us from Las Vegas, where he’s attending Bitcoin 2025. We’ll talk all things bitcoin – and there have been plenty of developments so far already.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

How To Know When It’s the Top

October 31, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

My mum remembers the gold fever – and indeed the silver fever (silver spiked to $50 three days earlier on January 18). Even today, 45 years on, the silver price is lower than it was then – that’s how insane that spike was.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

How To Know When It’s the Top
Things You Cannot Unsee

October 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

After yesterday’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, the world’s two largest economies agreed to reduce the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, while Beijing paused its rare earth export restrictions.

The markets would normally have cheered such détente. But investors were still haunted by Jerome Powell’s warning that the Fed may not cut rates again in December. And a renewed awareness that the AI bubble may, in fact, be in the “melt-up” phase… driven by expansive capital expenditures, financed by debt. 

Things You Cannot Unsee
1998, Redux

October 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998.

1998, Redux
Socialism Whacked

October 30, 2025 • Bill Bonner

Milei, meanwhile, is doing something different. He’s cutting budgets, trimming employees, and chopping off unnecessary bureaucratic appendages. He’s been in office for a little shy of two years. During that time, he’s reduced inflation by about 90% and cut the budget deficit by 100%. Argentina has climbed out of its almost permanent recession to have the fastest growing economy in the Americas, with GDP growth more than twice that of the US. Real wages have tripled. And poverty has been cut by 40%.

Socialism Whacked