The Making of a Credit “Event”

Addison Wiggin

May 28, 2025 • 1 minute, 6 second read

credit default credit event

When DOGE can identify hundreds of billions of dollars in waste, fraud and abuses… and… the budget deficit grows?

Well, investors get uppity.

That’s why the global bond market is sending yields soaring.

Another danger? Credit default risks are on the rise in the U.S. – their highest level in over a year.

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We may not be at a crisis point yet – but the trend is clear.

Credit markets continue to flash warning signals while investors have a “risk-on” approach to assets. That game of musical chairs won’t end happy for them.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve recently released new research on today’s markets, and how President Trump is following through on a Great Reset of the U.S. economy. This first phase isn’t pretty – we call it the Great Fire – of which today’s rising credit risks are certainly a part. Click here for more details on how it could play out.

Plus, for our members, we’ll have our weekly Grey Swan Live! video tomorrow. Andrew Packer will be joining us from Las Vegas, where he’s attending Bitcoin 2025. We’ll talk all things bitcoin – and there have been plenty of developments so far already.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Look Past the Headlines: Green Zone Factors in Action

September 19, 2025 • Adam O'Dell

It’s important to remember that news flow is not the true driver of lasting, market-beating stock returns.

At the end of the day, fundamental and technical factors drive returns. They always have.

That’s why they’re the sole informant of my Green Zone Power Rating system…

Look Past the Headlines: Green Zone Factors in Action

Civics 101 for Investors

September 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The Fed’s rate cut was a carrot. Trump’s challenge to Lisa Cook is a cudgel. Nvidia’s Intel bet is both. And Kimmel’s suspension? A warning that liberty itself can be chipped away by government jawboning.

For the investor who values freedom as much as returns, the lesson is simple: stability rests not on coercion but on trust that the do-gooders will leave the market alone. Break that trust, and the market’s incentives fail.

At the very least, Trump’s fast and furious attempts at realigning the U.S. on all fronts — political, judicial, financial — make for entertaining reading.

The better angels tell us to ignore politics altogether. Unfortunately, for our money’s sake, we do so at our peril.

The Small Cap Breakout

September 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The terrifying bull market broadened its base yesterday, driven by expectations of easy money.

Small caps tend to be more dependent on borrowing to finance operations than the cash-rich mega-cap players.

So it’s no surprise that as the Fed acquiesced to cutting interest rates Wednesday, small caps, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) broke out of a four-year range.

DASH and LOW Stock Have One Key Thing In Common

September 18, 2025 • Adam O'Dell

Sometimes, a compelling market trend flashes like a neon sign on the Vegas strip.

We’ve seen that a lot with mega trends like artificial intelligence (AI) over the last few years. Just last week, Oracle was rewarded with a 40% post-earnings pop in its stock price after a strong earnings outlook for its AI cloud business.

Other times, you’ve got to do a little work to find out what’s driving a stock’s price higher. And my “New Bulls” list each week is a great place to start.

DASH and LOW Stock Have One Key Thing In Common