The Mainstream Media Reverses Course on a Recession

May 13, 2025 • 1 minute, 17 second read

Several banks called for a recession in 2025 as recently as last week, following a surprise negative read in GDP.

But with a China trade deal in place, many of those big Wall Street banks are reversing course. This morning, JPMorgan noted that it did not see a recession anymore.

That’s also reflected in the betting markets. Polymarket showed as much as a 66% chance of a recession in 2025 – as recently as the start of the month.

Today, the odds are now down to around 40% – and should fall further as more trade deals are announced.

Turn Your Images On

As Andrew notes:

Most mainstream analysts will take a current trend and extrapolate its continuation out forever. That’s lazy, first-level thinking. A better approach is to think in terms of probabilities and what can change them. Tariff and trade news can – and now has – changed on a dime.

We’re still skeptical about this current market rally, even as many factors have turned bullish.

Why? One reason is simple – we won’t rule out a recession as government spending shrinks.

Given that the government spends more than it brings in, about 6% of GDP, a government recession wouldn’t be a bad idea — just a painful, but necessary correction.

That’s the line of thinking behind some of our upcoming research, where we look at President Trump’s three-step plan to reform the economy on sturdier ground. If it comes to pass, it could be an incredibly positive Grey Swan event. We’ll have further details on that research later this month.

-Addison

Ripple Effect

The Mainstream Media Reverses Course on a Recession

Addison Wiggin

May 13, 2025 • 1 minute, 17 second read

Several banks called for a recession in 2025 as recently as last week, following a surprise negative read in GDP.

But with a China trade deal in place, many of those big Wall Street banks are reversing course. This morning, JPMorgan noted that it did not see a recession anymore.

That’s also reflected in the betting markets. Polymarket showed as much as a 66% chance of a recession in 2025 – as recently as the start of the month.

Today, the odds are now down to around 40% – and should fall further as more trade deals are announced.

Turn Your Images On

As Andrew notes:

Most mainstream analysts will take a current trend and extrapolate its continuation out forever. That’s lazy, first-level thinking. A better approach is to think in terms of probabilities and what can change them. Tariff and trade news can – and now has – changed on a dime.

We’re still skeptical about this current market rally, even as many factors have turned bullish.

Why? One reason is simple – we won’t rule out a recession as government spending shrinks.

Given that the government spends more than it brings in, about 6% of GDP, a government recession wouldn’t be a bad idea — just a painful, but necessary correction.

-Addison

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

Waiting for Jerome

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning, the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

Deep Value Going Global in 2026

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

Waiting for Jerome

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning, the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

Deep Value Going Global in 2026

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.