And just like that: “affordability” has become this year’s political buzzkill.
Now, every time a voter opens their grocery receipt and sees the number, any number, Donald Trump’s face is going to pop into their head.
After this month’s Democratic victories in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia, the message came through like a slap: voters are not ideological, nor deranged, nor confused. They’re tired. Tired of paying more for less. Tired of being told “inflation is down” while the price of chicken keeps going up, like it has a personal vendetta.
The White House is quietly preparing targeted tariff cuts on key Latin American imports — coffee, beef, bananas — to relieve grocery sticker shock. Tariffs up, prices up. Tariffs down, prices maybe down.
Capitol Gains Trader, Andrew Zatlin, suggests this will be business as usual for policy through the next 12-month election cycle.
If affordability is the new battlefield, it’s because the ground beneath everyone’s feet has already shifted. The political narrative is loud; the economic reality is louder. And when voters pull the lever for politicians who promise “corrections,” they’re not reaching for ideology — they’re grasping for relief.
The truth is that several things are happening at once.
Manufactured goods — phones, clothes, TVs, cars — have held steady or even fallen in price thanks to decades of global supply chains. But the pillars of modern life — housing, healthcare, education, childcare — have exploded upward like an unregulated fireworks stand.
Families don’t necessarily budget for a flat-panel, wide-screen Samsung. They do however, budget for roofs, children, and survival. That’s where the pain and frustration live.
And that’s why we’re going to hear about affordability from people who don’t have to work for a living – unless they get your vote – for the next 12 months.
Can AI Fix the $5 Trillion Patient?
Not surprisingly, the biggest affordability issue for most families is health care. America spends nearly 20% of GDP on health care — roughly $5 trillion a year — while still operating a system patched together with clipboards, fax machines, and administrative bloat that grows like mold in a damp basement.
Doctors spend twice as much time on paperwork as patients. Nurses burn out because bureaucracy burns time. Billing is indecipherable by design.
You’re not imagining it — your hospital really does run on software last updated during the Bush administration.
Enter AI. Not as doctor, but as janitor, bookkeeper, scribe, and clerk.
Hospitals deploying AI for admin work report 30% reductions in internal costs and reimbursement cycles measured in days, not months.
Before AI cures cancer, it may cure inefficiency — the trillion-dollar tumor holding the system hostage. If Congress would just get out of the way, AI could actually reduce your health care coverage.
Markets Sense the Mood
Stocks are sliding into the weekend today with a slight headache. They are rallying as we write, but yesterday closed the worst day since early April’s 3-day post-rose-garden-tariff-
Traders are still trying to digest new expectations for a December rate cut… or not. Several Fed officials auditioned for the role of “Responsible Adult,” and odds that a new .25 cut fell below 50%.
Bitcoin slipped deeper under $100,000, with nearly $900 million pulled from crypto funds in just days. None of this signals disaster. But as we’ve been suggesting for some time now… the markets are still frothy. Caution is warranted and if you’re smart, you will “panic now, to avoid the rush.”
₿ Bitcoin Takes a Spill, The Jeftovic Analysis
Grey Swan’s Mark Jeftovic observed bitcoin’s slide below $100K with a trademark casual shrug.
“I don’t pretend to know what moves markets,” Mark will tell you. But look around:
50-year mortgages.
$2,000 tariff rebates.
Universal Basic Income trials.
All proposed since Tuesday.
In this age of Trump’s grand realignment, governments big and small are behaving like late-stage rock bands — giving fans what they want before the lights go out — you know liquidity is getting tight.
(Source: Bitcoin Capitalist)
A rumor circulated yesterday that Strategy, the market’s crypto proxy vote, sold a billion in bitcoin. It was a rumor. And spectacularly wrong. Off by hundreds of thousands of BTC, and obviously engineered to tilt a Polymarket bet.
Saylor denied it. Calm returned. Sort of.
The lesson: even rumors can move markets faster than central banks do. And the crowd still believes anything with a chart attached. Here’s one, in fact:
If you’re in the bitcoin maximalist camp, this is a buying opportunity.
The Quiet Rise of Corporate Failures
Another drumbeat is growing — not loud enough to get front pages boogying, but steady enough to get your foot tappin’.
(Source: Global Markets Investor, S&P Global)
According to Global Markets Investor, 655 large U.S. companies have already gone bankrupt this year, the most in 15 years. Not yet a “recession,” per se, but a perceptibly slow tightening of the vise.
Credit conditions are stiff. Debt is heavy. Tariffs are pushing up costs. Consumers are fatigued. The Fed may pause in December.
Industrials lead the pack, followed by consumer discretionary and healthcare.
(Source: Global Markets Investor, S&P Global)
Software firms — surprise, surprise — are next on the watchlist.
One credit strategist put it well: “These ‘isolated incidents’ will continue — they just won’t stay isolated.”
This is how every credit cycle turns. Yesterday, on Grey Swan Live!, Andrew Zatiln gave us a killer look at the private data that has been available since the government shutdown. (See replay details below.)
Espionage in the Empire State
The case of former New York political aide Linda Sun, now facing charges for bribery, wire fraud, and ties to Chinese government actors, has Washington buzzing again.
Sun’s alleged mansion-and-Ferrari lifestyle appears to have been financed by steering pandemic-era procurement contracts to China.
The case is not isolated.
(Source: Statista.com)
Chinese espionage cases have been rising since 2000, with the FBI warning that China remains the most active state-sponsored intelligence threat to the U.S.
The incidents skew toward military tech, commercial secrets, and cyber intrusion — and heavily toward California.
Sun’s trial will be watched for one reason: it sits at the uncomfortable intersection of geopolitics, commerce, and domestic vulnerability. The three places America least wants surprises.
As the trade war with China simmers in the background, you can expect more cases of espionage to gain headline status.
After The Shutdown, Disarray
After 43 days — the longest shutdown in U.S. history — the government reopened last night. Trump signed the bill before dinner; federal workers get back pay; SNAP gets its funding; and the gears start grinding again.
But the air traffic system remains strained. Canceled flights will ripple for days. And October’s economic data may simply never be collected — leaving the Fed to guess at inflation like a man reaching for his glasses in a dark room.
If not governance — Congress doesn’t even pretend to anymore — it’s improvisation.
The Great Hoard Transfer
We found this feature on Bloomberg interesting this morning: Along with the 4th turning, we’re getting a barrage of useless stuff.
As Baby Boomers retire in earnest, Generation X and Millennials are entering a $90 trillion inheritance wave — the greatest wealth transfer in American history.
But along with the assets comes something else entirely: the stuff.
Not assets. Stuff.
Silver flatware. Hummel figurines. Crystal goblets. Bobbleheads. Baseball cards. Filing cabinets full of expired warranties. The physical detritus of a lifetime lived pre-digital.
Boomers collected things. Their heirs collect experiences. The two are not compatible.
Estate planners call it “property disposition.”
Recipient families are more like: “Mom kept what?!”
Our suggestion: start decluttering now. Your heirs will praise you instead of curse your name while dragging boxes to Goodwill.
~ Addison
P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Andrew Zatlin — the #1-ranked economic forecaster on Bloomberg – covered much of the fear rippling through markets today.
While the government closure is over, the real challenge now is in economic data – or the lack thereof. That’s increasing the chances of a Fed pause in lowering interest rates in December, which in turn is sending asset prices lower.
With the December rate cut in limbo, we still see a bigger push to lower interest rates in early 2026 – designed to juice the economy and stock market into the midterms.
Paid-up members can watch the replay here:
If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
