The Incredible Shrinking Dollar

In the forex market, most moves are measured in pips – a mere 1/100th of 1%.

So even a 1% move is big and notable. Currency traders on the right side of a 1% move can make their trading year.

That brings us to the return of the U.S. dollar – which still manages to pass itself off as the world’s reserve currency.

Year to date, the buck is down nearly 9%:

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That’s the kind of move that you might see out of an emerging market currency over six months. But not a developed nation. And certainly not one that dominates global trade.

The drop in the dollar reflects several factors. There’s rising uncertainty over trade and taxes. And there are concerns over the unsustainable path of the U.S. government’s budget.

With the dollar in a downtrend, if you’re an American just buying American goods, it’s no biggie. If you’re exporting internationally, a weaker dollar is great. But if you’re buying foreign imports, it means higher prices – with or without tariffs.

The speed of this dollar decline suggests that something is broken in financial markets. And we may know soon enough what that is.

~ Addison

“The Nvidia Killer”

Elon Musk is set to revolutionize the AI industry with his latest invention.

It could make a lot of people rich in the process…

All while triggering a crash of up to 50% in the next 12 months in Nvidia and other popular AI stocks.

Which is why this former hedge-fund manager is calling it “the Nvidia killer”.

Click here to see Elon Musk’s new invention now.

P.S. With the dollar heading down, other currencies should have a tailwind and can trend higher. That includes foreign currencies, as well as non-fiat alternatives such as gold and bitcoin. With the dollar weakening on top of everything else, we see the potential for gold prices to soar far higher over the next 18 months.

That’s part of the conversation we’ll have on Grey Swan Live! tomorrow with Frank Holmes, CEO of USGlobal Funds – whose background is extensive in the hard asset space, from gold to the digital realm with bitcoin mining. We’ll also be looking under the hood of two intriguing ETFs he launched – JETS and WAR. It’ll be worth your time to tune in and hear Frank’s perspective.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

In the forex market, most moves are measured in pips – a mere 1/100th of 1%.

So even a 1% move is big and notable. Currency traders on the right side of a 1% move can make their trading year.

That brings us to the return of the U.S. dollar – which still manages to pass itself off as the world’s reserve currency.

Year to date, the buck is down nearly 9%:

Turn Your Images On

That’s the kind of move that you might see out of an emerging market currency over six months. But not a developed nation. And certainly not one that dominates global trade.

The drop in the dollar reflects several factors. There’s rising uncertainty over trade and taxes. And there are concerns over the unsustainable path of the U.S. government’s budget.

The speed of this dollar decline suggests that something is broken in financial markets. And we may know soon enough what that is.

~ Addison

“The Nvidia Killer”

Elon Musk is set to revolutionize the AI industry with his latest invention.

It could make a lot of people rich in the process…

All while triggering a crash of up to 50% in the next 12 months in Nvidia and other popular AI stocks.

Which is why this former hedge-fund manager is calling it “the Nvidia killer”.

Click here to see Elon Musk’s new invention now.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!