The Incredible Shrinking Dollar

In the forex market, most moves are measured in pips – a mere 1/100th of 1%.

So even a 1% move is big and notable. Currency traders on the right side of a 1% move can make their trading year.

That brings us to the return of the U.S. dollar – which still manages to pass itself off as the world’s reserve currency.

Year to date, the buck is down nearly 9%:

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That’s the kind of move that you might see out of an emerging market currency over six months. But not a developed nation. And certainly not one that dominates global trade.

The drop in the dollar reflects several factors. There’s rising uncertainty over trade and taxes. And there are concerns over the unsustainable path of the U.S. government’s budget.

With the dollar in a downtrend, if you’re an American just buying American goods, it’s no biggie. If you’re exporting internationally, a weaker dollar is great. But if you’re buying foreign imports, it means higher prices – with or without tariffs.

The speed of this dollar decline suggests that something is broken in financial markets. And we may know soon enough what that is.

~ Addison

“The Nvidia Killer”

Elon Musk is set to revolutionize the AI industry with his latest invention.

It could make a lot of people rich in the process…

All while triggering a crash of up to 50% in the next 12 months in Nvidia and other popular AI stocks.

Which is why this former hedge-fund manager is calling it “the Nvidia killer”.

Click here to see Elon Musk’s new invention now.

P.S. With the dollar heading down, other currencies should have a tailwind and can trend higher. That includes foreign currencies, as well as non-fiat alternatives such as gold and bitcoin. With the dollar weakening on top of everything else, we see the potential for gold prices to soar far higher over the next 18 months.

That’s part of the conversation we’ll have on Grey Swan Live! tomorrow with Frank Holmes, CEO of USGlobal Funds – whose background is extensive in the hard asset space, from gold to the digital realm with bitcoin mining. We’ll also be looking under the hood of two intriguing ETFs he launched – JETS and WAR. It’ll be worth your time to tune in and hear Frank’s perspective.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

In the forex market, most moves are measured in pips – a mere 1/100th of 1%.

So even a 1% move is big and notable. Currency traders on the right side of a 1% move can make their trading year.

That brings us to the return of the U.S. dollar – which still manages to pass itself off as the world’s reserve currency.

Year to date, the buck is down nearly 9%:

Turn Your Images On

That’s the kind of move that you might see out of an emerging market currency over six months. But not a developed nation. And certainly not one that dominates global trade.

The drop in the dollar reflects several factors. There’s rising uncertainty over trade and taxes. And there are concerns over the unsustainable path of the U.S. government’s budget.

The speed of this dollar decline suggests that something is broken in financial markets. And we may know soon enough what that is.

~ Addison

“The Nvidia Killer”

Elon Musk is set to revolutionize the AI industry with his latest invention.

It could make a lot of people rich in the process…

All while triggering a crash of up to 50% in the next 12 months in Nvidia and other popular AI stocks.

Which is why this former hedge-fund manager is calling it “the Nvidia killer”.

Click here to see Elon Musk’s new invention now.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

The global bond market is screaming.

This week, 30-year yields hit multi-decade highs across the U.S., UK, Germany, and Japan.

America’s 30-year briefly touched 5.0% — levels last seen in 2007. Japan’s long bond is at its highest since it was first issued in 1999. Europe’s long paper is flirting with crisis-era yields.

Why? Heavy borrowing, fiscal deficits.

In just two months, U.S. federal debt has surged by $1 trillion. Since mid-August alone, $200 billion has been tacked on.

Miran is outlining a radical plan to flip the U.S. dollar’s reserve status from a burden into a bargaining chip. To turn America’s towering debt from an embarrassment into leverage. And to reorient the entire global economic structure in Washington’s favor—while they still can.

Now, if you read through Miran’s 40-page paper, you’ll quickly realize he left a lot of other ingredients out (some of which actually make the plan far more realistic). It’s a speech, not a doctoral thesis, after all.

A spike in money supply typically occurs during a crisis. Not when the economic vibe is simply “uneasy” and bullish.

Today’s graph strips away delusion. A massive quantity of fiat money is propping up the stock market and global economy.

That’s a trend that cannot last.

In the early days of the Roman Empire foreign conquests brought glory, booty, and slaves. People were happy to be a part of it.

But after 100 AD the conquests largely ended. And as time went on managing the huge empire — with its far-flung garrisons and expensive bureaucracy — became less and less profitable. Taxpayers were squeezed harder and harder to pay for it.

Roman-era feds had their tricks too. The basic coin of Rome — the denarius — was inflated away. It came to be worth so little that even tax collectors wouldn’t take it. In 212, Caracalla expanded the tax base by giving Roman citizenship to all free men in the empire. But the squeeze continued.

Gradually, the small farmers — who had been the backbone and muscle of the empire — were forced to abandon their land…and even sell their wives and daughters into slavery in order to keep them alive. Gradually, too, Roman society became decadent, corrupt…and brutal, with more and more resources devoted to the war industry.