The Incredible Shrinking Dollar

In the forex market, most moves are measured in pips – a mere 1/100th of 1%.

So even a 1% move is big and notable. Currency traders on the right side of a 1% move can make their trading year.

That brings us to the return of the U.S. dollar – which still manages to pass itself off as the world’s reserve currency.

Year to date, the buck is down nearly 9%:

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That’s the kind of move that you might see out of an emerging market currency over six months. But not a developed nation. And certainly not one that dominates global trade.

The drop in the dollar reflects several factors. There’s rising uncertainty over trade and taxes. And there are concerns over the unsustainable path of the U.S. government’s budget.

With the dollar in a downtrend, if you’re an American just buying American goods, it’s no biggie. If you’re exporting internationally, a weaker dollar is great. But if you’re buying foreign imports, it means higher prices – with or without tariffs.

The speed of this dollar decline suggests that something is broken in financial markets. And we may know soon enough what that is.

~ Addison

“The Nvidia Killer”

Elon Musk is set to revolutionize the AI industry with his latest invention.

It could make a lot of people rich in the process…

All while triggering a crash of up to 50% in the next 12 months in Nvidia and other popular AI stocks.

Which is why this former hedge-fund manager is calling it “the Nvidia killer”.

Click here to see Elon Musk’s new invention now.

P.S. With the dollar heading down, other currencies should have a tailwind and can trend higher. That includes foreign currencies, as well as non-fiat alternatives such as gold and bitcoin. With the dollar weakening on top of everything else, we see the potential for gold prices to soar far higher over the next 18 months.

That’s part of the conversation we’ll have on Grey Swan Live! tomorrow with Frank Holmes, CEO of USGlobal Funds – whose background is extensive in the hard asset space, from gold to the digital realm with bitcoin mining. We’ll also be looking under the hood of two intriguing ETFs he launched – JETS and WAR. It’ll be worth your time to tune in and hear Frank’s perspective.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

In the forex market, most moves are measured in pips – a mere 1/100th of 1%.

So even a 1% move is big and notable. Currency traders on the right side of a 1% move can make their trading year.

That brings us to the return of the U.S. dollar – which still manages to pass itself off as the world’s reserve currency.

Year to date, the buck is down nearly 9%:

Turn Your Images On

That’s the kind of move that you might see out of an emerging market currency over six months. But not a developed nation. And certainly not one that dominates global trade.

The drop in the dollar reflects several factors. There’s rising uncertainty over trade and taxes. And there are concerns over the unsustainable path of the U.S. government’s budget.

The speed of this dollar decline suggests that something is broken in financial markets. And we may know soon enough what that is.

~ Addison

“The Nvidia Killer”

Elon Musk is set to revolutionize the AI industry with his latest invention.

It could make a lot of people rich in the process…

All while triggering a crash of up to 50% in the next 12 months in Nvidia and other popular AI stocks.

Which is why this former hedge-fund manager is calling it “the Nvidia killer”.

Click here to see Elon Musk’s new invention now.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning, the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.