The Incredible Shrinking Dollar

In the forex market, most moves are measured in pips – a mere 1/100th of 1%.

So even a 1% move is big and notable. Currency traders on the right side of a 1% move can make their trading year.

That brings us to the return of the U.S. dollar – which still manages to pass itself off as the world’s reserve currency.

Year to date, the buck is down nearly 9%:

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That’s the kind of move that you might see out of an emerging market currency over six months. But not a developed nation. And certainly not one that dominates global trade.

The drop in the dollar reflects several factors. There’s rising uncertainty over trade and taxes. And there are concerns over the unsustainable path of the U.S. government’s budget.

With the dollar in a downtrend, if you’re an American just buying American goods, it’s no biggie. If you’re exporting internationally, a weaker dollar is great. But if you’re buying foreign imports, it means higher prices – with or without tariffs.

The speed of this dollar decline suggests that something is broken in financial markets. And we may know soon enough what that is.

~ Addison

“The Nvidia Killer”

Elon Musk is set to revolutionize the AI industry with his latest invention.

It could make a lot of people rich in the process…

All while triggering a crash of up to 50% in the next 12 months in Nvidia and other popular AI stocks.

Which is why this former hedge-fund manager is calling it “the Nvidia killer”.

Click here to see Elon Musk’s new invention now.

P.S. With the dollar heading down, other currencies should have a tailwind and can trend higher. That includes foreign currencies, as well as non-fiat alternatives such as gold and bitcoin. With the dollar weakening on top of everything else, we see the potential for gold prices to soar far higher over the next 18 months.

That’s part of the conversation we’ll have on Grey Swan Live! tomorrow with Frank Holmes, CEO of USGlobal Funds – whose background is extensive in the hard asset space, from gold to the digital realm with bitcoin mining. We’ll also be looking under the hood of two intriguing ETFs he launched – JETS and WAR. It’ll be worth your time to tune in and hear Frank’s perspective.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

In the forex market, most moves are measured in pips – a mere 1/100th of 1%.

So even a 1% move is big and notable. Currency traders on the right side of a 1% move can make their trading year.

That brings us to the return of the U.S. dollar – which still manages to pass itself off as the world’s reserve currency.

Year to date, the buck is down nearly 9%:

Turn Your Images On

That’s the kind of move that you might see out of an emerging market currency over six months. But not a developed nation. And certainly not one that dominates global trade.

The drop in the dollar reflects several factors. There’s rising uncertainty over trade and taxes. And there are concerns over the unsustainable path of the U.S. government’s budget.

The speed of this dollar decline suggests that something is broken in financial markets. And we may know soon enough what that is.

~ Addison

“The Nvidia Killer”

Elon Musk is set to revolutionize the AI industry with his latest invention.

It could make a lot of people rich in the process…

All while triggering a crash of up to 50% in the next 12 months in Nvidia and other popular AI stocks.

Which is why this former hedge-fund manager is calling it “the Nvidia killer”.

Click here to see Elon Musk’s new invention now.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Remember what happened when they conjured $5 trillion out of thin air during the pandemic? Inflation ripped to 9% — the highest in forty years.

Kicking off the next money-printing cycle from $6.6 trillion instead of $4 trillion — with so much pandemic-era cash still sloshing around the system — all but guarantees double-digit inflation. We’re talking about potential currency destruction on a scale — and at a speed — America has never seen.

Position accordingly.

The Harvard Business Review warns of “workslop.” Mandated AI tools produce bad slides and reports. Workers say 15% of what hits their desks is slop. For a company of 10,000, that’s $9 million a year in lost productivity.

Progress, or just noise?

You may recall similar confusion over actual productivity in the early days of the Internet.

In the age of AI, oil isn’t just possibly made from dinosaurs — it is a dinosaur. Nobody’s running a data center on diesel, opting instead for nuclear.

As a result, oil prices have largely traded in a sideways $60-$70 range over the past few years. And relative to gold, oil is now substantially undervalued.

I’m not saying that we necessarily have to see that same pattern play out this time as we switch from Summer to Fall here in 2025, because we are in a much more solid acceleration phase of this bull market now, and the market breadth can stay bullish longer than people expect.