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Ripple Effect

The Income Effect

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

September 11, 2025 • 1 minute, 44 second read


DividendsIncome

The Income Effect

Your investment returns come from just two sources.

The first is capital gains. As the AI bubble blows higher, that’s the big focus for investors.

That means the second source of returns is being overlooked.

What’s the second source? Income.

The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is a paltry 1.18% today, almost touching its 1999 low:

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Investors ignore income stocks at their own peril (Source: Multpl)

Dividend-paying stocks have a lot to offer investors. A company can restate its earnings – but they can’t restate a cash dividend.

Plus, dividend growth companies tend to offer lower beta, or volatility relative to the market itself.

Finally, as Jeremy Siegel has documented in Stocks for the Long Run, over an investor’s lifetime, reinvesting dividends can account for over half of an investor’s total returns.

With the growing likelihood of a terrifying bull market in stocks kicking off, investors can get a relative safe-haven with dividend-paying stocks.

With the Fed about to slash interest rates, dividends may soon be the best game in town for income investors.

Even with overall yields looking low, there are plenty of companies that still offer decent yields and the potential to grow their dividend over time. We have plenty of such holdings in our Model Portfolio.

~ Addison

P.S.: Grey Swan Live! this afternoon at 2 pm ET: Mark Jeftovic joins us for “Shadow Fed & the American Dream” — how a September rate cut could hit the dollar’s purchasing power, where the money-market flood might go next, and why “control of money” is migrating from central banks to code, corporates, and courts.

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No doubt, we’ll touch on the claims made by Anton Kobyakov, senior adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, that the U.S. is using stablecoins to devalue its debt. Paid members, join us at 2 p.m. ET today.

If you’re not a paid member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you can review the benefits of becoming one here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


Dan Denning: The 2026 Battle Royale

December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Altman’s claim is that not only will people get more done with less with AI, they will be happier because their work is easier and…more fun. This follows a report from Anthropic, responsible for the Claude AI, that said AI increases productivity.

I will say I’m skeptical. But we’ve been told the nature of exponential change is that it comes at you faster than you can measure or observe. And if that is true, it will have consequences in 2026 for employees and investors. Big ones.

For employees–those who are not replaced by automated processes and robots–it will mean secure employment and higher wages. A small number of winners getting richer.

Dan Denning: The 2026 Battle Royale
The Inflation Episodes — Act II, Featuring Silver, Gold and Dollar 2.0

December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

American consumers don’t feel – or are at least unaware of – monetary nuance. They’re just getting the bill.

Trump declared last night that “affordability doesn’t mean anything to anybody,” dismissing the term as a “Democrat scam”— this despite recently proclaiming
himself the “Affordability President” on Truth Social.

That’s the current state of political messaging on cost-of-living: part whiplash, part vaudeville. But voters aren’t confused. Grocery prices are still 30% higher than 2020. Tariffs add daily friction. Utilities, rent, houses, tuition, healthcare continue their daily grind upward.

The Inflation Episodes — Act II, Featuring Silver, Gold and Dollar 2.0
The “New” Contrarian Case for Bonds

December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

During a Fed rate cut cycle, bond yields follow, which typically means bond prices tick higher. If you buy bonds now, you’ll be getting in ahead of the crowd.

And if this tech wreck shapes up anything like 2000-01, investors will want to get out fast. Despite the debt mess in Washington, bonds will again look “safe.”

One minor bonus: if you buy now, you’ll lock in higher yields before the next Fed rate cut, which is expected to come one week from today.

The “New” Contrarian Case for Bonds
American Life: Less Ordinary

December 2, 2025 • Bill Bonner

But Green is describing more than just a new calculation. He’s talking about a new form of misery.’ It’s a poverty where you may still have most of the accoutrements of middle-class life. But your relationship with the financial elite has changed: you are indentured to the credit industry — for life.

American Life: Less Ordinary